6-1-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter
Well, if we learned much of anything from May, it is that this division is VERY fluid. The Brewers are the clear leader right now with the end of month tiers breaking down something like this:
Tier 1
Milwaukee
Tier 2
Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh
Tier 3
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh finds themselves in the backend of Tier 2, but could very easily tumble down into Tier 3 or even up to the top of Tier 2. June promises to provide even more movement on this front since we are getting a ton of intra-divisional games. I don’t have a whole lot more to add on the front end, getting into the individual teams is the whole point here anyway!
Let’s check in on the Enemies.
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 34 | 23 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 27 | 28 |
| Chicago Cubs | 28 | 30 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 26 | 31 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 25 | 32 |
Milwaukee Brewers
Lineup
Willy Adames – Adames continued his strong 2024 season into May by blasting 5 homers,
scoring 20 runs, driving in 22, and swiping 4 bags. His slash line fell back down to more near his career line. He still ranks top 11 in all of baseball for fWAR.
William Contreras – Contreras the Younger further cementing himself as one of the top catchers in the sport. As May winds down he holds a narrow fWAR lead over Will Smith for the best in baseball. Crushing the ball with a 94.0 average exit velocity and a 55.7% hard hit rate.
Brice Turang – Turang slowed some from a production standpoint, but he has backed up his
breakout as being a major league caliber player. Speed/defense/on-base ability are all hanging around for him through May.
Jackson Chourio – Rookie bats have been adjusting very slowly this year and that holds true
for Chourio. Milwaukee is shielding him some by giving him less PAs, and while the results
aren’t showing up yet, his approach appears to be trending in the right direction at the very
least. His batted ball data is not atrocious, but it has been disappointing early returns
nonetheless.
Joey Ortiz – What a month for Ortiz. He was always undervalued despite being a top 100
prospect, but that was mostly a function of being buried in such a loaded Baltimore system.
Ortiz drilled 4 homers, 6 doubles, 1 triple, a .408 wOBA, & a 168 wRC+ in May. He sure looks
like a cornerstone for this club.
Joey Wiemer – Long a favorite prospect of mine, Wiemer does not look like he’s got it. He is still just 25 years old & has battled injury, but he is now even struggling at AAA. Likely not
happening any time soon for him.
Pitching
Freddy Peralta – A somewhat disappointing May stat line wise for Freddy, but his underlying
stuff still pops as being a very good pitcher. I’d expect much better months, production wise,
ahead.
Robert Gasser – Gasser got the call and made 4 great starts in May. The stuff itself doesn’t
really standout other than a very good sweeper, but he has excelled at generating weak/poor
contact against. I do not think he is quite as good as what he has shown thus far, he looks the
part of a mid-to-back end starting pitcher.
Trevor Megill – Megill got his shot to fill the vacated closer role and he had a very good May in
doing so. He posted 7 saves and a 12/0 K/BB across 9 appearances.
Joe Ross – Ross made 3 strong starts in May before exiting his 4th start early due to injury. In
some ways he is similar to Gasser – not a frontline pitcher, but offers a strong swing & miss
slider and across the board OK arsenal. His return from a low-back strain will shelve him for a
while, but he appears to have found something here.
Tobias Myers – Myers finds himself back in the big league rotation with the Ross injury. In some ways he is the lesser version of Ross. He’s got a swing & miss offering in the slider but not much else with his repertoire pops. There is some K stuff here & in two of his 4 May starts, his command was clean. More of a guy to monitor here, but might just be a back-end/swing man, moderate K SP.
Minor League Check In
Jacob Misiorowski – Miso has incredible stuff. Unfortunately he also has incredible issues with
control. You can never count out a guy with this kind of nuclear K stuff, he MUST clean up the
command to ever fulfill his potential.
Yujanyer Herrera – Promoted to A+ and has not quite sustained his dominance. The K stuff is
still showing but there is clearly a fair amount of development to be done here.
Mike Boeve – After blowing out A+, Boeve received a promotion to AA. His production has been slowed a bit but he is still hitting. I don’t think there is any question that he will be a big-league capable hit tool guy. Still development to be done and he may not have significant power and there are some concerns about defensive home. If he picks up the power output, look out.
Eric Bitonti – An early Complex league standout. Most notable for his immense power, Bitoni
has popped 4 homers, 5 doubles, and 2 triples in 20 games. He has swing & miss concerns and is striking out at a 31.6% rate early on. He has a chance to be a serious helium guy if that
strikeout rate comes down closer to 25%. Big time watchlist name here.
Fillipo Di Turi – Another Complex standout here. Di Turi is the anti-Bitonti. He has walked more than he has struckout in 19 games and has been incredibly productive with a top 10 wOBA across all qualified minor leaguers. Because of the approach, hit tool, & projection Di Turi appears to be on a B-line for top 100 status should this carry over as he advances up the ranks for A ball.
St. Louis Cardinals
Lineup
Ivan Herrera – Herrear finds himself locked in to near regular playing time with Willson
Contreras injured. Not much production yet, but he is showing the skills to be a good offensive catcher. He hits it hard with regularity and there will be production to follow should he keep this up.
Paul Goldschmidt – While he isn’t completely dead, we are definitely seeing a diminished
version of Goldy thus far in 2024. His batted ball data in May is looking good though, with a 92.6 average EV & a 49.2% hard hit rate. More production should be following for the aging star.
Nolan Gorman – As bad as Gorman was in April, his end of May has been productive. He
appears to be locking himself in as a low-BA, good OBP, slugger. He is likely to be prone to
long stretches of frustrating play and equally scorching stretches of power binges.
Nolan Arendao – Sort of the opposite situation as Goldy. Things under the hood are not looking so hot for Arenado. The average EV is down to 86.4 and the hard hit rate at 34.2%. Early going thus far, but his time as a force in the lineup might be running out.
Alec Burleson – Burelson has the look of a solid hitter. Will likely post good BAs and modest
power production. He had a good month of May with 3 homers, 4 doubles, & a .302 average.
Masyn Winn – Winn showed some very good stuff in May. Winn hammered 2 homers, 7
doubles, and slashed .313/.333/.475. He has an interested approach with a 3.6/9.5% BB/K%
with some free swinging tendencies featuring a 91.1% Z-contact and a 84.5% O-contact backed by a 88.7% overall contact rate. He is an exciting and talented player, but his approach will be something to monitor.
Lars Nootbar – A very good month for Nootbar. 4 homers, a .371 wOBA, and a 146 wRC+.
Unfortunately for Nootbar and the Cardinals, he once again finds himself on the IL.
Pitching
Sonny Gray – Sonny continued to chug along in May. Across 28.2 IP he went 4-1, 35/8 K/BB,
with a 3.77 ERA, & a 1.08 WHIP. Gray is still good.
Ryan Helsley – A down month outside of 8 saves in his 9 appearances. He currently leads the
Major Leagues with 18 saves.
JoJo Romero – Extremely sharp again in May. Registered 8 holds & paces the Majors with 18.
Lance Lynn/Kyle Gibson/Miles Mikolas – This trio is still not particularly good, but they have
been pitching acceptably enough for the time being. Lynn & Mikolas in particular have better
underlying indicators than their ERA would suggest. Gibson had a quietly effective May on the surface and underlying side.
Minor League Check In
Tink Hence – Tink has been victimized by the longball some in May, but the stuff is super loud. He was also hit by the BABIP monster and some long ball trouble. He is a dawg.
Quinn Mathews – Mathews received the promotion to A+ and has continued to prove that he is a real pitching prospect. 19 IP, 24/3 K/BB, 2.84 ERA, & 0.68 WHIP. You have to assume that a handful more starts in A+ should be all the Cardinals need to see before getting him to AA. Very possible top 100 prospect here should his dominance continue.
Darlin Saladin – Very interesting arm here. He really shoved in May with a 0.69 ERA, 0.81
WHIP, and 37/7 K/BB. One to closely monitor.
Nathan Church – Church fell off some in May, but not too significantly. He has a similar
approach to Masyn Winn. Free swinging but makes a high amount of contact regardless.
Sammy Hernandez – An interesting teenage catching prospect. No power showing up yet, but the production has been impressive nonetheless with a .390 wOBA & a 136 wRC+ in May.
Chicago Cubs
Lineup
Cody Bellinger – He just keeps on chugging. At a certain point, when a player continually
outperforms underlying numbers, it becomes a skill in its own right. It is hard to say when or if it will come to an end, but right now it isn’t. 3 homers, 8 doubles, .307/.344/.500 triple slash, .367 wOBA, & a 141 wRC+. Let the good times roll for Belli.
Nico Hoerner – As predicted in April, Hoerner has found his footing in May. Not a star talent, but a cornerstone type player still. Worth monitoring that the defense has slipped some in 2024.
Christopher Morel – The Morel Experience continues in May. He absolutely punishes the ball
on a regular basis and while the stat line is not particularly impressive outside of drilling homers and knocking in runs, there is a lot to like here. Morel has cut his K% by nearly 10% and raised his BB% by 3.7%. His stat line was depressed by a very low BABIP, .209, about 81 points below his career norm. He is due for an absolutely nuclear month.
Michael Busch – Busch hopped on the struggle bus in May. He does appear to be fulfilling the
low-BA, decent OBP, slugger role that many envisioned though.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – PCA has been up and down with the Cubs & is not locked in to starting yet. Hard to get a ton out of his sample size so far, but the defense & speed are proving to be his calling card so far.
Seiya Suzuki – Returned from injury and has not been nearly as sharp as before his IL trip. His
batted ball data looks good and I expect him to get it rolling as we head into June.
Pitching
Justin Steele – Steele had a tough month. He got knocked around twice by the Bucs and once
by the Braves in his return. His final start of the month saw him return to a more Steele-like
form. He went 7IP, 8/1 K/BB, yielding only 3 hits, and 0 runs. He will look to carry this
momentum in to June.
Hayden Wesneski – Wenseski made 10 appearances and 2 starts in May. For the time being
he has settled into a bullpen role and could get further opportunities to start as needed.
Shota Imanaga – Imanga tossed 30.1 IP in May with 26 of them being spectacular. The
Brewers roughed him up badly in his final May appearance, but it cannot be overstated just how good he has been early for the Cubs. He sits in the top 15 for fWAR at the end of the month.
Ben Brown – Ben Brown ladies & gentlemen. Brown closed out May by utterly dominating the Brewers going 7 IP, 10/2 K/BB, 0 hits, 0 runs. Prior to this start he had only made brief
appearances only lasting 4.2 IP in his next deepest start. He had a top 10 fWAR in the month of May and will continue to get opportunities going forward.
Minor League Check In
Nick Dean – A 2023 college draftee, Dean tuned up A ball likely by virtue of being too advanced for the level. He has since been bumped to A+ and has only made two starts so far. Mostly a name to watch as he gets into the upper levels.
Yohendrick Pinango – Enjoying a breakout season so far. This was his 3rd year repeating A+
and he finally cracked that level. Pinango was promoted to AA and has yet to get it going in his 13 game sample. Another name to watch as he was showing a promising blend of power & hit in A+ by leading Chicago’s minor league system in wOBA & wRC+.
Kevin Alcantara – The Jaguar made encouraging strides in AA during May seeing his K% drop
down to 22.7%. Keeping this in check is going to be very big for him going forward. A massive
toolshed prospect in the vein of Oneil Cruz/Elly De La Cruz, probably a bit less eye-popping, but incredible potential here.
Owen Cassie – Starting to catch on in AAA, Cassie has his K% below 30% & all the way down
to 24.5% in May. Should this trend continue, he will be in Chicago this season.
Matt Shaw – Shaw is handling his business at AA. Not jumping off of the page yet, but certainly not disappointing either.
Cade Horton – Has found himself on the MiLB IL with a lat strain.
Cincinnati Reds
Lineup
Elly De La Cruz -Elly found himself in a prolonged slump for nearly the entire month. Not much production outside of leading the Majors in steals with 13 swipes in May. It should be noted that his defense graded well this month and particularly OAA views him as quite a good defender. A player with his profile will definitely be prone to long stretches of frustrating play and Reds fans are living through one now. The good (and also bad) news is that a massively slumping De La Cruz still paced the Reds in fWAR for May.
Stuart Fairchild – He only made 44 PAs in May, but they were highly productive. A .397 wOBA
and 155 wRC+. He is not a full time player, but this is great value for the club.
Will Benson – K’s continued to pile up for Benson. 37.2% K rate is simply too much to sustain a full time role. There was some production still, a 94 wRC+ and .308 wOBA, but the trade off is probably not enough, especially for a player that does not make a defensive impact.
Everyone Else – Truthfully almost every other player in the Reds lineup was very poor in May.
So poor that it is not really worth highlighting them! Better days are almost certainly ahead, but this had to be an extremely disappointing month for Cincinnati fans.
Pitching
Hunter Greene – 30IP, 2 wins, 2.40 ERA, & 1.20 WHIP in May as Greene continued to take that breakout leap.
Nick Martinez – Martinez only made 1 start in May but went for 19.1IP. Very successful in the
long-man role.
Nick Lodolo – Lodolo had a bit of a rough month in May, but the overall statistics are still
pristine. He has continued to battle some injuries on and off, but the ingredients are here. The
biggest impediment for Lodolo appears to always be his health.
Fernado Cruz – Oh baby look at those underlying numbers. He has a 48% K rate on the back of his totally bonkers splitter. The splitter has a 61.6% whiff rate. That is insane. Cruz has some command issues that really hurt his output, but the stuff is crazy.
Alexis Diaz – The struggles continue for Diaz. The lack of command is really hurting him this
year. Plenty of time to turn that around, but it has been rough.
Lucas Sims – Sims was really good in 11 appearances. A 100% strand rate, 9/1 K/BB, 1 save,
& a 1.08 ERA, and a 0.60 WHIP.
Minor League Check In
Rhett Lowder – Lowder got the call to AA and it has been a hard adjustment for him. He did
however just have his most successful AA start going 4 IP, 7/1 K/BB, 5 hits, 1 ER. I’d expect
him to adjust appropriately and have a much better summer.
Sal Stewart – Sal walks more than he strikes out, has great zone command, and a strong hit
tool. Should the power begin to tick up, he could be ticketed for top 50ish prospect status.
Reports on his defense are a little murky, so that will depress his rankings some. But he is a
pure hitter.
Jay Allen II – Allen II continued his march to top 100 prospect status in May. 4 homers, 8 steals, .419 wOBA, & a 155 wRC+. Crucially the K% is staying manageable at 23.5%.
Ricardo Cabera/Alfredo Duno – This A ball duo is still looking legit. Sporting .383/.372 wOBA
respectively, this is an exciting teenage duo for the Reds. Duno in particular is receiving a lot of attention and should be climbing catcher prospect ranks as the year wears on.
Chase Petty – Petty had 1 awful, no good, very rotten start in AA in May. If you take that one
away he was shoving to the tune of a 1.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 23/5 K/BB. Just don’t go look up
that start from 5/25/2024. Simply viewing the stat line might melt your face as if you just opened the Ark of the Covenant.
The Wrap
May 2024 saw pretty brutal play from Cincinnati and Chicago while St. Louis found their stride as the month wound down. The Brewers maintained a steady enough pace to hold their spot on the top of the hill. Many divisional games will take place in June. The chaos that could unfold in the standings during June has me fired up for the summer months. I am already looking forward to the next installment!
Moises Ballesteros – Ballesteros is one of the slightly lesser heralded catcher
prospects in the game, but I believe that this changes in 2024. Making it all the way to
AA as a 19 year old, Ballesteros possesses a strong approach and makes pretty high
quality of contact, in fact he sports an impressive 90th% exit velocity (104.9) that
supports the fact that he will likely be an above-average power producer as he ages.
This type of profile might really boom very soon.
Ben Brown – Ben Brown appeared to be on the verge of making the Majors in 2023 and
then he scuffled upon reaching AAA. He possesses very good stuff but also command
issues. Chicago may be toying with moving Brown to the bullpen as he only made one
Spring Training start. He will almost certainly be a Major League player, role TBD.
This Chicago team is put together well and positioned to be a challenger in the Central.
From the outset of the season I think that Cubs have a compelling case to expect to be
in the running to be division champs. Strong line up, competent pitching staff, plenty of
bullpen juice, and one of the best farm systems in the entire league. It will be very fun to check in on this group on a month to month basis.
Steel City Pirates 