Tyler Glasnow: Revenge Game

6-4-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

New series! If you follow me on X, you have likely seen my near daily posts breaking down the opposing starting pitcher. We’re going to move that over to Steel City Pirates going forward to provide a more easily accessible format for everyone. Starting off with former Pirates top prospect: Tyler Glasnow.

As we all remember – or at least are regularly reminded of – Glasnow was one of the main pieces sent to the Tampa Bay Rays in that ill-fated 2018 Chris Archer deal. Glas was essentially in long-relief with the Bucs at that point after struggling to a 5.79 ERA over parts of 3 seasons in Pittsburgh before thriving under the Rays tutelage, with a 3.20 ERA across 6 years in Tampa.

Injuries have derailed him several times over the years, but when he’s healthy and on the field, there’s few pitchers better. And now, as part of a Dodgers rotation among the best in baseball, he doesn’t even have to be.

Glasnow currently leads all of baseball in strikeouts (95) with a 2.65 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 74 innings pitched. He can be a bit wild at times as he also leads MLB in wild pitches (8) but has a modest 7.3% walk rate and his advanced metrics – 2.39 xERA/2.65 FIP/2.56 xFIP – lean more favorable to his high K rate, especially given his pitch arsenal.

Glasnow, returning to face the Pirates for the first time since that aforementioned trade, is top tier in K rate and whiff rate, both aided by his 99th percentile extension. We’ve seen how well this long extension has worked with Bailey Falter, who throws considerably slower than the Dodgers ace. Hitters are even more overmatched against Glasnow and his arsenal.

Glasnow has 3 main pitches: the elite high-90s 4-seamer, a low-90s slider and a 12-6 curve in the mid-80s. Both of his secondary offerings have 40%+ whiff rate but his fastball, which he’ll throw most of the time to get ahead in counts before moving to his secondary options, is the big weapon.

Everything works off his fastball, and Glasnow’s is one of the best pitches in baseball – ranking just behind Tanner Houck’s slider and Cole Ragans fastball as the highest Run Value pitch.

While the fastball is a weapon for Glasnow, his curve has been better with opponents batting just .114 and slugging .227 against the offering.

The Dodgers pitching group has the 3rd lowest ERA (3.22) in MLB, and somehow their bullpen is even better (3.07) so it’s going to be a struggle for hitters either way.

Glasnow has been slightly worse of late, allowing multiple runs in each of his last 3 starts, but his 1.69 ERA away from Chavez Ravine and near even splits vs either LHH (.591 OPS) and RHH (.511) means he’s going to be a tough opponent for Bucs bats regardless.

Pirates hitters need to key in on his slider. When it’s off, it’s hittable and opponents have hit it the most among his options with an xwOBA of .285. Work counts and try to get his pitch count up early because this is likely going to be a GRIND of a game if his pitches are on.

#LetsGoBucs