6-5-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Following a win in the opening game last night against the flame-throwing right-handed pitcher, Tyler Glasnow, the Pirates will look to keep rolling against contact-oriented southpaw in James Paxton.
The veteran Paxton joined the Dodgers as a free agent this past offseason, providing a steadying presence despite not having overpowering stuff. He enters play Wednesday with a 3.29 ERA and pristine 5-0 record but also a 31:28 K:BB ratio and some underwhelming metrics.
Paxton mostly throws a low-90s fastball up in the zone and low-80s knuckle-curve down and under the zone. He also offers a low-80s cutter and changeup but almost 90% of the time, he’s worked fastball/curve this year.
On the surface, Paxton is getting solid results from his main offerings but over-performing his expected metrics as his xERA (5.24), FIP (5.36) and xFIP (5.39) are all MUCH higher than his ERA.
Paxton has a career BABIP of .300 but despite career-worst strikeout (14.2%) and walk (12.8%) rates, he’s gotten EXTRAORDINARY lucky with a .243 BABIP thus far this season.
And he’s not getting soft contact either as his hard hit rate (40.3%), barrel rate (8.2%) and average exit velocity (88.9 MPH) are all below league average. Regression is on the horizon for him.
Pirates batters need to have patience at the plate against Paxton today – especially right handed hitters as his K/BB rate (0.88) has him walking more batters than he strikes out.
The Bucs have a 102 wRC+ against LHP on the season but have struggled more lately (85 wRC+ since start of May). Deep breaths, relaxed at-bats and strong plate discipline will be key to success over Paxton.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 