6-7-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
The AL and NL Central were both considered to be down divisions as we entered 2024, primarily because none of the leagues “super” teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Phillies, Braves, you know, the stacked teams this year, reside in these divisions. At least on paper.
The Guardians are setting the pace in the AL Central and their 40 wins has them good for second best record in the entire American League. The Brewers have separated themselves a bit in the NL, and their 36 wins have them good for 3rd best record in the Senior Circuit.
All around baseball, there is this glut of teams at or around .500. They all boast being a game or so in or out of a wild card spot. They all boast being within shouting distance of the top wild card spot. In fact, there are only 5 teams in baseball you can honestly say have no chance at being in the .500/wild card scene. The Angels, A’s, White Sox, Marlins and Rockies. Those, are your “sellers” if there are any this early on in a campaign. The way this league is right now, there are 6 teams who are in, will be in, just jockeying for position. 5 most likely all the way out and 19 teams all in the bloated middle.
That’s where the Twins and Pirates both reside, and that’s the lay of the land as we sit here with exactly 100 baseball games left in the 2024 regular season.
I know Pirates fans want deals now, but 19 teams are out there, largely in the same boat. That is an environment that makes the few sellers feel like that scrub 4th starter might be the Hope Diamond.
The Pirates haven’t even played two teams in their own division yet, arguably the two teams that are likely definitively worse than them, even observing today’s standings.
Like it or not, it’s just too early for deals. At least impact deals. Winnable series here, the Twins record is built on beating the White Sox, Angels and White Sox again from April 22nd through May 1st. (Assist to Josh Booth here) Aside from that, they’ve been largely below the line. Not that the Pirates can afford to throw stones.
6-7
Twins – Joe Ryan (R) – 4-4, 72 IP, 3.38 ERA, 77 Ks/11 walks, 1.01 WHIP
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 7-3, 73 IP, 3.42 ERA, 66 Ks/20 walks, 1.22 WHIP
6-8
Twins – Simeon Woods Richardson (R) – 2-0, 44.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 36 Ks/11 walks, 1.11 WHIP
Pirates – TBD
6-9
Twins – Bailey Ober (R) – 5-4, 62 IP, 4.94 ERA, 60 Ks/16 walks, 1.13 WHIP
Pirates – Jared Jones (R) – 4-5, 69.1 IP, 3.25 ERA, 76 Ks/15 walks, 1.01 WHIP
Twins:
The Twins only have one player with an OPS north of .800 and he’s on a bit of a downturn, so I’m turning to an old friend for the Twins Who’s Hot, Carlos Santana. I’ll pause here so you can craft your reply about how you would have signed him as opposed to Rowdy Tellez. After a very cold start, Carlos has really turned it on, his last 15 games he’s slashing .286/.412/.476 with a couple dingers.
Pirates:
My guess is you won’t want to hear about Rowdy Tellez in his last 7 games hitting .350, so I’ll pick another. Nick Gonzales has simply been incredible. In his last 15 games he’s slashing .356/.409/.559 with 2 dingers and 16 RBI. He’s producing right in heart of the Pirates order and he’s doing it in all situations. He’s just as happy being a table setter as he is knocking runs in and man, this is great news for this Buccos team.
Twins:
Byron Buxton, man it’s always been about health with him. My god the production when he’s healthy though. We’re talking 19 homeruns in 61 games, 28 homeruns in 92 games, 17 more in 85, so here he is 44 games in and he’s only hit 3, with a .640 OPS. His last 15 games, .163/.226/.327 with 2 homeruns. Let’s hope he stays cold for 3 more games.
Pirates:
Connor Joe has gone through a bit of a rough patch lately. In his past 15 he’s slashing .228/.333/.298. Not tragic, but important to note especially as he’s seen more starts against right handed pitching the numbers have fallen off a bit. I don’t say this to advise he stop getting playing time, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Key Injuries
Well, for the Pirates its clearly Quinn Priester and Martin Perez. Those two going down has thrown up a black hole for the 5th starter. My hope is that Perez caught his groin situation early and is able to return when he’s eligible from the IL on the 12th and the Bucs only have to fill this spot once, but having no depth can’t stand, the very real chore of controlling Jones and Skenes inning output will have to start sooner than later.
Roster juggling moved Ryan Borucki to the 60-day IL, Mike Burrows is still not throwing competitive baseballs, Braxton Ashcraft is shoving in AA Altoona, I almost wouldn’t be shocked to see them sneak him up to AAA and get him ready for his shot. Domingo German has looked awful in AAA, and you won’t see them turn to him unless it’s a long term need.
What To Watch
Henry Davis is going to get my eyes quite a bit. I see the swing change, and he looks more comfortable with it. I also still see he’s too out in front of way too many pitches and that is simply going to do nothing but limit his success in my mind. Really need to see him start putting more balls in the air.
And of course Saturday. How the Pirates handle that day will be telling, and hopefully they escape it without completely killing an already teetering part of the team. Bluntly, I don’t see a great option here. I could see them turn to Luis Ortiz and maybe ask him for 3 or 4. We could see them make a move to bring Josh Fleming back up potentially, but there simply isn’t much there. German and Ashcraft just pitched last night. So yeah, sounds to me like an old fashioned bullpen game, and again, those haven’t exactly gone great for our side.
Thing is, they can’t really afford to just kill anyone because they’re running out of fresh arms to call on even for the pen.
Steel City Pirates 