Starter Spotlight: Joe Ryan

6-7-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Despite the loss in the loss yesterday, the Pirates overall have been hitting RHP better of late – a wRC+ since June 1 – and they’ll be facing another challenge in today’s starter for the visiting Minnesota Twins: Joe Ryan.

Ryan had an ELITE start to his 2023 season, going 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 70:10 K-to- walk rate in his first 60 innings pitched. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off and over his final 100.2 innings, he slumped to a 5.90 ERA despite maintaining his very strong strikeout (29.5%) and walk (5.6%) rates in that span.

This year, he is off to a less dominant start (3.38 ERA in 72 innings) but he is still a very legitimate control pitcher in that rotation with 77 strikeouts to 11 walks so far this season.

Ryan features a low-90s fastball, a high-80s splitter, high-80s slider and low 80s sweeper. He utilizes his above average extension and pinpoint control to mix speeds and eye level against hitters as he works high heat and low off-speed stuff.

His big issue last year was allowing home runs at an alarming rate as his 32 surrendered were the tied for the 7th most in MLB while his HR/9 of 1.78 would have been 4th worst rate among qualified pitchers (his 161.2 IP fell one out short). And that issue has continued into 2024 with 11 long-balls thus far this season and his 1.38 HR/9 ranking 16th in MLB – though 4 of those 11 came in his most recent start against the Houston Astros.

When you throw a lot of strikes, eventually you’re going to get hitters to get the barrel to a few of them. And Ryan’s 10.7% barrel rate is among the worst in baseball, ranking 3rd highest among qualified starters.

Ryan’s fastball has been his main offering and has accounted for much of the damage with 5 round trippers off the pitch so far this year and sparked 19 of his home runs allowed last season. Opponents have also teed off on his lesser-used slider, which has an oBA of .333 and oSLG of .600.

Key to victory for the Pirates is looking for that fastball early in counts because that first pitch matters. When Ryan gets ahead of batters 0-1 in counts, opponents have a .467 OPS compared to a ridiculous 1.218 OPS after a 1-0 count.

With the Twins coming off getting swept in the Bronx and outscored 22-11 in those contests, they’ll be looking to get back on the winning track. Don’t let Ryan get comfortable and get early run support for Mitch today.

Let’s Go Bucs!