6-9-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The Pirates are riding high this home-stand, winning 4 of the first 5 games and looking for a chance at a series sweep today – a feat the Bucs have been unable to achieve since the opening series in Miami. Taking the bump for the Twins and trying to prevent that sweep is Bailey Ober.
After a strong April, in which Ober posted a 1.48 ERA over 4 solid starts and 24.1 innings, he has heavily regressed with a poor 5.45 ERA since the start of May over 7 games and 36.1 innings.
Like the other starting pitcher named Bailey, Ober has an elite extension – which helps his low-velocity play up a bit more against opponents. Unlike Falter, however, Ober has struggled to get similar results as he enters play today with a 4.94 ERA – one of the worst among qualified starters – 60 strikeouts, 16 walks and a 1.13 WHIP in 62 innings pitched this year.
His arsenal consists of a low-90s fastball, high-80s cutter, low-80s changeup and a low-80s slider.
He’s steadily cut his fastball usage over the years as it has become less and less effective. Opponents this year are batting .341 and slugging .648 against Ober’s heater. On the other hand, his cutter has an wOBA of .317 and his changeup is .219.
Ober has plus control with a career 5.2% walk rate and strikes out about a quarter of opposing hitters.
But when batters put the ball in play, Ober has gotten a bit of luck. Despite his 10.3% barrel rate and 28.7% ground ball numbers, his BABIP of .262 is well below league average.
Ober has some reverse splits with righties performing considerably better against him than lefties as 8 of his 11 home runs allowed have been surrendered to RHH.
He looks to get ahead in counts early with a 68.1% first pitch strike rate but opponents only swing at that first offering 37.1% of the time. Pirates hitters need to be ready and aggressive when they see their pitch.
Look for Bucs batters to hunt the high fastballs early in counts. Nick Gonzales is slugging .857 against fastballs this year and didn’t get an RBI in yesterday’s match so he may be itching to get back at it against Ober today – especially with a bump up to the 5 spot in the lineup.
Get to Ober early. Attack mistakes, avoid off-speed stuff and take advantage of an ineffective pitcher and a team struggling to score runs.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 