Examining the Pittsburgh Pirates through one month of Paul Skenes career

6/11/24 By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

Paul Skenes was pitching collegiately one-year ago, leading head coach Wes Johnson and the LSU Tigers to a College World Series title.

After that monumental moment for Skenes, the bigs were calling, and talks of him being the best pitching prospect since the Nationals drafted Stephen Strasburg ran rampant through the MLB landscape, and after much deliberation and questions as to who would go number one overall, Skenes heard him name called first, seeing the next step of his career take him to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Now, Skenes is dazzling on MLB pitching mounds, facing the likes of Shohei Ohtani and other top talent across the sport. Did I mention he’s only been here for a month? It feels much longer, seeing as it feels like we are watching in slo-motion every time he touches the rubber, anticipating what will happen next.

As I have stated many times before on my show, Locked On Pirates, Skenes is the type of player who changes the direction of a franchise, bringing along a word that many fans have used as of late, urgency, hoping the Pirates “buy-in” to what Skenes is offering this team, and something they haven’t quite had in a very long time, a truly elite, ace-like pitcher.

So, let’s look back at what we’ve seen from Skenes throughout his first month, and even expand to the team overall, seeing how he’s impacted things in such a short time.

The Pirates record suggests good things since Skenes debuted

Since May 11, when Pittsburgh saw Skenes debut versus the Chicago Cubs, they have a record of 14-12, which at the surface may not seem all that impressive, but that includes series wins over the Chicago Cubs, the Atlanta Braves, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Minnesota Twins, all teams with postseason aspirations.

The Pirates are 4-1 in games when Skenes starts, with the lone loss coming to the Giants in his third start. In those five games, Pittsburgh has scored 45 runs, or nine runs per game, so the offense has given him much needed run support.

Again, 14-12 may not be a flashy record, but its a respectable pace for a team that saw a hot start and fell flat for a two-three week stretch. 14-12 amounts to a winning percentage of 53.85-percent, and with 97 games left, if the Pirates kept that pace over the final 97 games, they would have a record of 52-45, placing them at 83 wins, a win total that could get them to the playoffs with the way things stand in the NL.

Now, staying on that pace consistently is nearly impossible, but with a lethal trio of Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller in the rotation and a solid complimentary starter in Bailey Falter, you can expect the Pirates to continue to perform and stay in it, with Skenes being a major contributor to that.

There’s no doubt the baseball has been better since Skenes arrived, so lets get to that.

Nick Gonzales and the offense deserve some credit too

The day before Skenes made his highly anticipated debut, the Pirates brought up Nick Gonzales, who posted a 1.039 OPS with AAA-Indianapolis over 120 at-bats, and with Jared Triolo taking a noticeable step-back offensively, the Pirates needed offensive production at second base, and so far, its been the right move, and some.

Since Gonzales arrived, he leads the NL in RBIs with 23, has an OPS of .845 and continues to be a force in the middle of the batting order. Factor in a .339 average over his past 15 games, and you can argue that Gonzales has been just as important as Skenes since his arrival.

Gonzales, alongside the offense kicking into another gear, has been much better since Skenes arrived than before. The Pirates rank middle of the pack in home runs(15th) with 26, four of those coming from Gonzales, a part of the team that was desperately missed after leading in the category across Spring Training.

On top of that, the Pirates rank 16th in slugging(.388), 16th in OPS(.686), third in BABIP(.320) and 17th in total bases(327), so there’s no doubt of room for improvement, but when you take into account that the Pirates rank higher in nearly every offensive category than they did before Skenes arrival, the improvement is documented and welcomed.

If Skenes and the starting pitching staff can be consistent and the offense can be average, which it can be as suggested by the statistics I just outlined, then it spells for a pretty good mixture of a balanced baseball team, which may be enough over the course of the season.

There is one problem though.

The bullpen, which we thought would be elite, has been up-and-down, to put it lightly

The Pirates bullpen looked like a force to be reckoned with when they decided to unload $10.5-million for Aroldis Chapman in the offseason, creating a lethal back-end trio that included Colin Holderman and David Bednar.

Bednar got off to a slow start but has looked much more like himself since, posting a 2.03 ERA in May. Chapman has been up-and-down, as he has been most of his career, but he’s been nice to have. Holderman has been one of the best relievers in baseball since coming off the injured list to begin the season, so you’ve probably seen the back-end bullpen be what we thought it could be.

Meanwhile, the middle relief has been a mess, that’s the best way I can put it. Remember Ryan Borucki and Dauri Moreta, yeah, the Pirates miss those guys. There have been bright spots in the middle part of the bullpen, like Hunter Stratton, who has a 2.25 ERA so far in June. Outside of that thought, it’s been rough.

Carmen Mlodinski has taken a step back from his strong 2023 campaign, sitting with a 5.84 ERA over 12.1 IP, Kyle Nicolas has a 6.14 ERA over 14.2 IP, Luis Ortiz, despite having a 2.61 ERA, doesn’t seem to have a consistent enough role and well, everything else they’ve thrown at the wall hasn’t been great.

Pair that all together, and the Pirates pitching ranks 16th with a 3.94 combined ERA. Wait, what? Yeah, that doesn’t sound “awful”, but when you break it down too since Skenes arrived, that number inflates to a 4.20 ERA, ranking 19th in baseball. So, not an insane a drop-off as you might have expected, but there have been problems, especially with the usage of the bullpen, and if those get resolved, I think you’ll be happier with the product.

Skenes has elevated a rotation that was already strong

Upon Skenes arrival, there wasn’t much issue with the starting rotation, a unit that was headlined by Jared Jones being brilliant and Mitch Keller coming along after a slow April.

Bailey Falter and Martin Perez were strong complimentary options and even Quinn Priester and Marco Gonzales were contributors. Now, Perez, Priester and Gonzales are all on the injured list, so Skenes has been needed more than ever, but despite the injuries, the unit has remained as steady as any unit in baseball.

The Pirates rotation currently ranks third in baseball in quality starts(32), meaning they get a quality start from their rotation about 49-percent of the time, so yeah, over time, that’ll help the previously mentioned bullpen issues.

Meanwhile, Skenes has three quality starts under his belt over five starts, flashing his brilliant fastball-slider combination, while also featuring his splinker that has fooled even the best hitters in opposing lineups.

Jones has had minor setbacks as of late, same with Falter, but Keller has come back to All-Star form after posting a 1.30 ERA in May and a 0.75 ERA so far in June.

If Skenes, Jones and Keller stay healthy *knock on all the wood you can*, they will keep the Pirates in any ballgame against any team, seriously, even the best teams in baseball, and it will only become contagious across the rest of the roster, and to be completely transparent, and if you’ve read this piece in its entirety, it already has.

Skenes has brought not only warranted hype around himself since arriving a month ago, but he’s given even the most casual of fans a reason to tune into Pirates baseball, because he is the type of player who changes a franchise for the better, and although its only a sample size of 30 days, it appears, statistically, that things are continuing to point up for your favorite team from the North Shore, and if there is anything I can continue to tell you about Skenes and the team overall, watch, enjoy and let everything play itself out, I am sure you’ll like the results.