6-13-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
After splitting the first two games in the series in St. Louis, the Pirates look to win the rubber match against long-time rival, Lance Lynn.
Lynn has a 7-8 record with an ERA of 5.31 and 108 strikeouts in 24 career appearances versus the Pirates – but most players currently on the roster have never faced the veteran righty.
After posting one of the highest ERAs in MLB last year among qualified starters (5.73), Lynn has bounced back in his return to the Cardinals, where he spent the first seven years of his career.
In 13 starts this season, he has a 2-3 record with a 3.58 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 65.1 innings. While his resurgence in his return to the Cardinals on the surface appears to follow in the footsteps of Albert Pujols, the underlying metrics paint a far less rosy picture.
For starters, Lynn’s strikeout rate (21.7%) is his lowest since 2017 while his walk rate (9.3%) is his highest since 2018. His xERA (4.30), FIP (3.99) and xFIP (4.17) weight heavily on these numbers to predict expected values.
Home runs have historically been an issue for Lynn. He allowed an MLB-leading 44 last year with a 19% HR/FB rate and 2.16 HR/9 – some unsustainably high figures. This year, he has somehow cut his HR/9 down to 0.96 and HR/FB rate to 9.6% despite still allowing hard contact with an average exit velocity of 88.6 MPH, an 8.7% barrel rate and 38% fly ball rate. These all point to a likely regression ahead for the veteran Cardinals starter – and hopefully, that starts today.
Looking at Lynn’s arsenal, his main 3 pitches are all around the same high-80s/low-90s range, working a 4-seam fastball, cutter and sinker with infrequent low-80s slider and mid-80s change.
The lack of velocity range allows hitters to maintain timing on his pitches as he uses them indiscriminately against both lefties and righties.
His fastball has been his most used and most effective pitch in the early going with an oBA of .194 and oSLG of .366. When hitters do time the pitch up, however, it’s led to 4 of his 7 home runs and has an EV of 91.6 so hitters shouldn’t discount attacking the pitch.
Opponents have had a fair bit of success against his cutter (.432 oSLG) and his sinker (.417 oSLG) so look for hitters to try hunting one of them to drive in the game today.
Lynn has posted worse numbers at home (4.55 ERA in 29.2 IP) than away (2.78 in 35.2) this year but has a 2.84 ERA in day games versus 4.28 ERA at night.
Pirates hitters need to be patient with Lynn, take walks and ambush mistakes. This is a beatable pitcher and winnable series so team needs to take advantage and prepare to head to Colorado on a high note.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 
A game that, on paper, the Bucs should’ve won. But as often occurs at Busch, the Pirates lost by a slim margin instead. I don’t like the phrase “Good teams find ways to win” because it’s circular logic and reductive, but I do think it’s fair to say good teams less often snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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