Starter Spotlight: A Feel For Feltner

6-14-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

When the Pirates last faced Ryan Feltner on May 5th, he lasted just 5.2 innings allowing 5 runs off 8 hits. It was a very poor showing that is not even in his top 5 worst outings this season as Feltner has had a VERY rough season. This is despite having fairly decent stuff and is more a result of some UNREAL bad luck for the Rockies starter.

Among all qualified pitchers, Feltner has the 2nd highest ERA (5.74) but his xERA of 3.69 is the same as Mariners ace, Luis Castillo. His ERA-FIP (1.69) is the largest in MLB as his FIP of 4.05 is better than Twins starter, Pablo Lopez (4.12), or Yankees rotation piece, Carlos Rodon (4.10).

So why are the results not matching expected values? Well, he allows a LOT of baserunners with 83 hits, 19 walks and 2 batters reaching via hit by pitch for a WHIP of 1.48. If it weren’t for Patrick Corbin, Feltner would be leading in a number of unsavory categories.

But I mentioned bad luck before because Feltner’s BABIP of .339 is the third highest in MLB despite not allowing an exceptional amount of hard hit balls or doing really any one thing particularly poorly.

Yes, he doesn’t have a great K rate. Most starting pitchers are comfortably striking out 20% of hitters or more, and Feltner’s 19.2% mark ranks 59th among qualified starting pitchers. But, overall, these are not metrics you expect to result in some of the WORST numbers in MLB. Enter: Coors Field.

Playing away games this year, Feltner has been a below average – but still serviceable – starting pitcher. At home? Woof!

These sub-par numbers are bolstered by an UNREAL .390 BABIP, which will eventually regress to the mean – but hopefully, not until his next home start.

Feltner works mostly mid-90s fastball and high-80s slider, though he also offers his mid-80s changeup, mid-90s sinker and infrequent curve in high-70s.

His slider and changeup have been hit the hardest though he has been leaving more on fastball/sinker in his recent few starts.

Hitters should expect a healthy dose of fastballs tonight and just need to be ready for them.

Let’s Go Bucs!