6-14-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
It’s funny how much detail some of us approach offseason prognostication. We predict homerun totals, and Rookie of the Year contenders, you know, we’re silly. That’s not what I’m going to talk about today though.
We all get these silly predictions wrong. Even when we’re right.
For instance, I straight up nailed the Pirates win total of 76 wins last year, so yay for me, unfortunately, I was just as wrong about how it would come to be.
This year I’ve predicted 84 wins, and already, with 90+ games remaining on the schedule I can see a world where that number is right, but it won’t have played out anywhere near the way I saw it.
Today, let’s talk about all the things that have gone in an entirely different direction than I had forecast.
The Starting Rotation
I could just leave it there really. I thought it would be bad early and gain strength as the year played out. I could probably just talk about Bailey Falter for a paragraph or two and show you how wrong I was right?
Well, a few things really surprised me.
First, I don’t think I truly believed the Pirates would let Jared Jones come North with the team until like, well, when I saw him pitching in a Pirates uniform and the regular season was underway.
I absolutely thought Jared would play a role this year, even gave him an outside shot at beating Skenes to the punch, but in no way did I imagine one of these two pitchers breaks camp and it’s Jared Jones.
Further, I think if anyone told you they expected to get what he’s provided at any point during this season, they’re at least stretching the truth. He’s been every bit a phenom, and while I was very high on him, It hasn’t been 6 months since I was questioning whether he’d make it as a starter or reliever.
Happily, dead wrong. Thought of him as a mid season addition at best and even then, not looking like he has.
Paul Skenes is different, and I knew he was. The team talked about him differently too, they knew what they got and to their credit they shocked me for sure and I’m assuming many of you by not playing Super 2 games with him.
For reference, we’d just likely be seeing him right now if they had, and this isn’t without risk, if he wins rookie of the year the Pirates lose a year of control, and get no draft pick compensation for it. Know what? I’m friggin’ proud they didn’t care and just made the move. He was playing wiffle ball in AAA, and he’s already pitching to veteran hitters like he’s been doing this for a decade.
Even so, I didn’t expect it. I find it hard to “expect” things that I’ve never seen. I’ve never seen a pitcher get called up to my team and dominate the league, once, let alone twice. So pardon me, I didn’t feel it fair to the kid or myself to expect this level of dominance.
Pile all that together, that’s 3/5 of a starting rotation I thought maybe I’d have gotten something out of at this point, that my friends is as dead wrong as you can get.
Lefty Power
I thought as I looked at the bits and pieces the Pirates were conglomerating, if they did one thing, it would be to hit homeruns against righties.
I looked at Oneil Cruz and ignored how hard being down for a year was going to be for him.
I saw Rowdy Tellez and figured he’d play average defense and hit 10-15 on the low side.
Bryan Reynolds I had penciled in for 15 from that side and Jack Suwinski I had as a lock for 20, I straight up thought this would be their dominant lineup.
The Pirates have a team OPS of .630 for the season facing right handed pitching. I don’t need to quote you individual stats or whatever here, you know the names and faces and you know how much better this team has fared against left handed pitching.
It’s been the main reason in my mind for the Pirates failure to really string together wins. Statistically speaking, you’re still going to face far more right handed pitching than you are left handed. It’s simply not been the Pirates strong side, and it’s killing them. To the point it’s the number one priority for acquisitions right now. Lefty power.
The Powerful Pen
It has not been that at all.
Lots of excuses for that. Chapman always does this stuff. Bednar should have maybe started on the IL. Holderman got sick. Mlodzinski got hurt. Moreta and Borucki injuries. Take it wherever you want.
The Pirates have made some very curious moves with their bullpen.
Let me tell a little story here, and before I do, I’m in no way claiming the Pirates have a garage full of fancy cars to choose from for the bullpen.
I had a neighbor growing up, super nice guy, used to let us fish in his pond on his estate. The owner had a gigantic garage with 13 cars in it. He had 6 kids, and as they grew and got their licenses, he would give each of them a car. Finally when he got through them all I was talking to him down at the pond and he says I have to get a new car. I remember looking at him like he was nuts, I was like don’t you have like 13? He goes on to explain his kids took all the cars you could actually drive around here. So he had to go get a car to actually drive.
The Pirates in my mind have frivolously tossed away much needed depth from their bullpen this year, either by making rash decisions or bouncing them up and down so much they can’t get their bearings anywhere.
Ben Heller, Wily Peralta, Eric Lauer, Jose Hernandez, Josh Fleming (retained), Roansy Contreras have all been given their release, DFA’d, in some cases a move was made in a panicked fashion to make sure they got to see his AAA numbers not play out in MLB with Ben Heller.
Ryder Ryan is up and down and up and down and sometimes not pitching at all for a week.
I really do believe arms like Mlodzinski and Kyle Nicolas, have a role and I advise patience with both, I really think the team needs them, but can you tell me everything that’s happened since moving on from Contreras has been better than what Contreras was providing?
Was Jose Hernandez, a guy you held on to all year as a Rule 5 player, and allowed to pitch 50 innings, some in high leverage really so bad you had to DFA him? A guy with options and YEARS of control. A lefty, who’s already shown you he has something there. Were they that tight on the 40-man? Really?
Can you look me in the eye and say they won’t claim someone off waivers soon who is at least not as good as what we’ve seen Hernandez do here?
Frankly, I think they got some underperformances that timed up together, and further I think they made some of that timing happen.
They’ve taken a bullpen that should be well rested based on their starters delivering 375.2 innings, that’s 7th in all of baseball to this point and they’ve eliminated the advantage by shuffling it at weird times and choosing to use some members so sparingly they might as well be carrying a 6th starter.
The constant need to refresh partially came from not having the ability to move out underperforming veterans and instead having to shuffle out arms that weren’t necessarily taxed as much as having the ability to be shuffled.
We’re seeing signs that the backend is forming now, and Hunter Stratton going down will deal another blow.
Suffice to say, this has not been the strength I saw it to be. In fact I saw this facet carrying the staff up to close to this point.
The Worst Division in Baseball
I thought for sure it would be the NL Central or the AL Central. Early on though, it’s easily been the NL East.
Outside of the Dodgers, it’s possible the NL East still has the 2 best teams in the league in the Phillies and Braves, but the Braves have hit a rough patch in the wake of losing Ronald Acuna Jr. and last place in the central would be good for 3rd over there.
I could even make a strong case for the AL West, only the Mariners are above .500 out there.
Maybe I was a bit extra claiming the NL Central would be the weakest division in baseball, but it’s certainly shaking out to be one of the tightest. If Milwaukee falls back to the pack at all we could legitimately be looking at 5 teams who all think they’re in the division race and the Wild Card, that simply can’t be seen as “weak”.
Steel City Pirates 