Starter Spotlight: Seeing Greene

6-19-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

With the series-deciding game today, the Pirates will send out Mitch Keller to face off against Reds flamethrower, Hunter Greene. Entering play today with a 3.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and one of the best fastballs in the game outside of Pittsburgh.

Unsurprisingly, his fastball is Greene’s main pitch, throwing it 57% of the time this year. Greene pairs his fastball with a high-80s slider and works mostly off those two offerings in his games. He throws in a high-80s splitter and low-80s curve infrequently but mostly works off the fastball/slider combo. Opponents are hitting just .206 against the slider and .185 against the fastball so it has certainly been working out for him.

Looking at his splits, Greene has naturally pitched better away from Great American Ball Park (3.06 ERA) than he does in the home games (4.02) but also has performed better in day games (2.74) compared to night ones (3.94). That said, he has had some struggles lately. Although Greene has gone 5+ in 12 of his last 13 starts, he has allowed 4+ runs in 2 of his last 3 outings so it’s possible the Bucs are seeing him at an opportune time,

Greene has started 22+ games with the Reds in each of the past 2 seasons with 30%+ K rate and under 10% walk rate both years. This season, however, has seen both rates trending in the wrong direction with a 25.7% K rate and a 10.7% walk rate. He’s also benefitted from some good batted ball luck and low HR/FB rates.

He has avoided barrels at a strong clip (only a 5.2% rate) as well as hard contact (34.2%) while his ground ball rate from 29.3% in 2022 to 35.3% this year.

Pirates hitters will need to exhibit patience at the plate today – something they have failed to do in the first two games of this series with the starters pitching 13 of 17 innings in the series. Greene’s 37 walks are the most of any pitcher in the National League and he’s tied for the MLB lead in hit batsmen (9 – one ahead of his mound rival in Mitch Keller) and if either of his two pitches is off on the day, hitters need to key-in on the other and take free passes when they come.

Chance to win the series today so the team needs to bear down to get the win ahead of the day off tomorrow.

Let’s Go Bucs!