Starter Spotlight: Pop Off Against Pepiot

6-21-2024 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Tampa Bay Rays come to town and, although they are currently near the bottom of their division, they are never to be taken lightly. Toeing the rubber tonight will be young righty Ryan Pepiot, who was acquired from the Dodgers this offseason as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade.

Over his first 12 games with the Rays, Pepiot has a 4.57 ERA with a 28.6% K rate and 7.5% walk rate, some very respectable numbers for a pitcher who hadn’t made 10 MLB starts in a season prior to this year.

Pepiot had a decent start to his career with the Rays, posting a 3.88 ERA through his first 9 games but he’s REALLY struggled lately with a 6.48 ERA in 3 starts this month with an OPS of .942.

In those June games, he has allowed six home runs in just 16.2 innings, which heavily inflated those numbers. But hard contact has been a recurring problem for Pepiot.

Looking at his peripherals, Pepiot allows hard contact at a 42.1% clip and barreled balls greater than 10% of the time with an average exit velocity (90.3 MPH) ranking well below league average.

Pepiot works mainly with a mid-90s fastball, high-80s slider and high-80s changeup. He works up in the zone with heat and ticks down lower with the offspeed and breaking stuff.

He has a very lively fastball with one of the best run values in all of baseball at 1.7 RV/100. This is buttressed by a vertical break of nearly 3 inches above average, leading to a 35.5% whiff rate and oBA of just .130.

On the other hand, his secondary offerings don’t fair quite as well. His slider has an oBA of .308 and his changeup has been slugged by opponents at a .569 clip. Both have become eminently hittable and should be targets for the Pirates hitters in tonight’s affair.

The Rays bullpen had to battle the past few days during their series with the Twins and several of their top arms will likely not be available. Take advantage of a struggling rotation and a pitcher who has been hitting a serious rough patch. Attack the off-speed stuff low, drive in runs early and secure a Bucco win!

Let’s Go Bucs!