6-24-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
Last week I was sitting here writing about how excited I was to get eyes on the last of the Pirates Division foes, the Reds. The Pirates won that low scoring series 2-1 and it’s literally the reason they find themselves a game up on them right now.
Much has happened in the week since though. Both offenses have stayed dormant, both have suffered more injuries, both have players coming back off the IL too.
Things never happen as fast as you want in baseball, but if you want to start scratching out some separation in this division, your best bet is always head to head. Don’t miss this one and try to force their ball park to reawaken the sticks, it hasn’t worked for the Reds.
Lets go!
1. No Rentals?
As we near the end of June, even the “let’s wait” crowd starts to feel the urgency to make deals. The standings being this bunched is going to force some teams to trust the base they’ve built and believe additions can at least get them into the dance. Others will recognize they’re a fraud and reluctantly sell.
That’s why in a way, it makes a ton of sense to try to acquire players that won’t be right back out the door in December. If you’re unsure of the bet you’re placing, it makes sense to give yourself more ways to win. If you can deal for a solution that helps for the next couple years too, even if you were wrong about 2024 and fall short, you could still have done something important for making your upcoming offseason easier, or given yourself more options for the direction you could take.
That said, I wouldn’t shut myself off as a fan to rentals entirely as I’m starting to see float around on social media.
There are some reasons that a rental might make a ton of sense.
The first and most obvious, you can’t really control what’s available and believe me, the list of rental options will dwarf the list of longer term solutions. Closing yourself off to the bigger pool of talent because it’s not exactly the way you want to go is at the very least short sighted.
If you really think your team is a “super star” away, you have a much better shot of landing that in a trade as a rental than you do with term. Think about it, the reason a team is moving a talent like that is because they know it will be difficult to retain them if they even want to try. Let’s say a guy like Pete Alonso, he’s a Boras client, look, the Pirates aren’t signing this guy in free agency. You can do all your “they could” or “they should” stuff, but the fact is, they won’t, and they don’t like Player Only options, a Boras commonality at this point when he stomps his feet because he didn’t get is initial contract estimate.
They could have him for one stretch run though.
In this scenario, the Pirates are taking on salary (roughly 10 million), and probably giving up a good potential player too. Now, I can’t see giving up something crazy for 3 months of a guy like this, and a team that has aspirations to potentially get a leg up on extending him probably hasn’t met Boras and his Free Agency or bust philosophy. Point is, if there’s a bidding war, we aren’t talking apples to oranges.
The Mets may want to retain him via free agency, and dealing him could make that harder potentially, but they should be more than happy to shed salary considering what they’re paying per win as we speak.
Hell, they might even take Rowdy back just to offset it a bit for ya.
Things like this are out there, and no, they aren’t the long term. They help this year, maybe, these things have a tendency to not actually add what you hoped they would. If you sell the Mets a shot at a really good player 2-3 years down the road, provided they do the work and the scouting is right in exchange for 2-3 months of their power hitting, weirdo first baseman and it helps get you in the Wild Card, it’s a win, even if you lose a star debuting in 2026.
Look for longer term stuff by all means, if it’s out there and it really addresses a hole, do it. If not, rentals don’t kill the build or whatever, they just equate to admitting some of the kids aren’t as ready as they need to be for a run. You can upgrade a spot where you’re kinda sputtering with a kid and jump right back to the kid in 2025.
Think on that a bit and see if it might open up some positions you previously had scratched off the list. Rentals has become a dirty word, but it’s hardly a bad thing.
Who among us doesn’t have fond memories of Marlon Byrd, or J.A. Happ?
I’d say the important thing here is, with this congested a field, I don’t think you can afford to shut off any avenue.
2. Without Bednar
The Pirates have had their share of injuries, but David Bednar has the potential to be significant. I don’t mean the length of his injury, I just mean now is a terrible time to be short handed on what had become a strength.
The Pirates hopefully caught this early, that would be my assumption since it’s retroactive to the 20th, but no matter, they’ll have to play without him for the time being, so, how?
I know Derek Shelton seemed to indicate the closer could be either Colin Holderman or Aroldis Chapman, but the truth is, I bet he goes with Chapman most of the time. He is what he is, and I get it, that’s shaky based on recent history, but he’ll go into the hall as a closer for a reason.
In fact, this situation is exactly why he was signed.
So they’re short a man for that 7-8-9 setup and if I had to take a stab at who jumps in to fill in, I’d go with Carmen Mlodzinski. He started slow after his scare with an arm injury this Spring, in fact I still don’t 100% understand what the team saw when they decided to call him up, but in his last 7 he’s got a 1.74 ERA in 10.1 innings, with a 1.16 WHIP. Looks much more like the pitcher we thought we had in 2023.
The Pirates need David Bednar to get healthy, but more than that, they need to see guys like Carmen and Kyle Nicolas start to prove themselves worthy of being counted on moving forward.
They also need Ryan Borucki to continue to progress and work his way back.
This stretch is an opportunity for some guys, if they thrive, this bullpen starts to look like a real unit as they get healthy. If they falter, the Pirates may need to fortify the pen in a big way to do anything this year.
3. Why Do They Always Talk About Exit Velocity!!?!?!???
For some fans, talking about the exit velocity after an out is classic excuse making. It’s akin to trying to pretend an out wasn’t all that big a deal or even like it’s something to celebrate.
I get the frustration, but if you feel this way, I assure you, for the most part, things like this are more about pointing at the predictive nature of the stat than they are to excuse away the lack of production.
In fact, Exit Velocity coupled with Launch Angle together are what make up the Hit Probability stat. In other words, if your exit velocity is X at Y Launch Angle, it should be a hit Z amount of the time. The actual “Z” in that equation changes as the actual results the league experiences change. In other words if a lower launch angle starts getting better numbers, the predictive stat will adapt. Even as I type this, I can picture 50% of your eyes glazing over, I’m sorry.
That’s it really, it’s just a predictive stat, and more accurately, part of a predictive stat. The reason they do something like this on the broadcast is, well, you’re right, to try to comfort you in part.
Nick Gonzales has struggled to get results lately, and they’ll point out his exit velocity by way of showing you it’s not because he’s not “hitting”, even while he’s not “hitting” ya dig?
If you really dumb it down, it’s no different than showing you a replay of Siri robbing a hit with an incredible play. Or Nolan Arenado diving 3 feet into foul territory to rob someone a double down the line.
You’ll acknowledge a guy was robbed when he drills a ball into the gap and someone makes an incredible play to steal a hit, but you’re less likely to in any way acknowledge it if it were right at someone.
One thing Exit Velocity certainly isn’t, it’s not something to get mad about. If anything it would be like the broadcast showing the Sprint Speed for a fielder on a failed diving catch. I suppose if I look at it that way I can understand how strange it is to mention anything positive surrounding what on it’s face is a failure.
Now, all that said, exit velocity doesn’t smooth over every bad thing. It doesn’t matter that Oneil Cruz is reaching otherworldly average exit velocities if it doesn’t happen often because he doesn’t make contact enough, and it doesn’t matter if for some reason he’s getting unlucky in relation to others with similar peripherals.
Modern baseball isn’t going to exactly slow down on implementing Statcast data, so if I’m you, I take some time to try to understand them at least a little, as opposed to assuming every new one mentioned is some sort of marketing plan. Of course everything done on TV is in some way meant to entertain you, but if you don’t like the mayo on your sandwich, just scrape it off and eat the damn thing.
4. The Best Lineup?
This team’s definition of “Best Lineup” they can put out there is different all the time, just like it is for every team. The Pirates simply have to find a way to break up the 3-4 spots of next to nothing in their lineup.
I understand guys need rest, but some nights it’s hard to imagine getting anything from almost half the lineup.
Eventually this will be why they make deals, but in the meantime, I wanted to see if I could put together something using all the spare parts this team has to cobble together something that doesn’t have a black hole somewhere in the lineup. I’ll go through it, then I’ll try to explain it.
Andrew McCutchen DH
Bryan Reynolds CF
Oneil Cruz SS
Nick Gonzales 2B
Rowdy Tellez 1B
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Connor Joe RF
Edward Olivares LF
Jason Delay C
Now, lets look through what I’ve done here.
First big change is I’ve moved Bryan Reynolds back to CF, and I’ve done this specifically to address getting Michael Taylor and Jack Suwinski out of my lineup. As long as one of them has to be in center, part of my lineup has to have a hole I have to work around. Since I have no choice at catcher right now, that makes 2 of 9. The only way to improve that is to change who plays the position. Yes, it’ll hurt defensively, even if he has been incredible defensively this year, but thems the breaks.
This lineup gives me a better shot at scoring and doesn’t have any spans of despair. It also just about completely takes away their ability to platoon much, if at all. That’s a detriment for Olivares and Joe to a degree, but honestly I could say that for Hayes too at this point right? It also puts Tellez back in play against lefties again. The team has only allowed him to have 19 ABs against them this season, so I’d imagine that’s not what they’d prefer. Perhaps there simply has to be a place for Joe at first base and Jack Suwinski in the outfield.
The team will get Ji Hwan Bae back and unless Jack’s hard contact yesterday quickly becomes balls leaving the park, I’d bet they’ll make a swap. Even so, I’d like to see them consider being even more flexible with Reynolds, Tellez, and Joe to start trying to limit the number of futile at bats.
Now why not just cut guys I’m talking about benching? I mean, this is optimal, not every night, I just wanted to see if it were even possible to put something together that didn’t make me feel I could get a sandwich when I see a set of 3 on the coming up graphic.
No wonder we act mad about the lineup just about every night, there’s like nothing short of making some counterintuitive choices and changing positions that I could think of to avoid it.
You start jumping through hoops like this, you must add.
5. Third Base
Ke’Bryan Hayes simply isn’t the same player when his back isn’t right, and so far in his relatively short career, his back isn’t right often enough. He’s probably the best defensive third baseman I’ve seen in a Pirates uniform, but he needs to be 100% himself or it just isn’t enough, often enough.
I say this while acknowledging he’s not even close to the most important issue going on right now. I’m not saying this pretending 3B needs to be something they actively hunt for at the deadline or even in the offseason, but I do think as we watch prospects progress through the system playing third base, we should probably stop acting like they’re permanently blocked.
If he can replicate what he did in 2023 for the rest of his contract, he’s still a bargain, he’s also not played more than 136 games in a season, so one way or another, the team is going to need another solid third baseman.
There’s still hope that Jared Triolo can fill that role, Jack Brannigan is coming along, Nick Gonzales can handle it and maybe even Malcom Nunez will make a go of it at some point, but the thing is, we need to stop pretending Ke’Bryan is a player that is going to be capable of giving you his best if he’s playing 5-6 times a week.
I’m not sure the team is ready to say that, or admit that, but it sure looks that way to me. Thing is, if he didn’t carry it with him to the plate where he showcases his physical inability to turn on a ball the way he needs to periodically, you could just ask or tell him to push through it. It effects his performance though, drastically.
He’s certainly showing that aside from stretches here and there, he’s probably not a top of the order type. The manager trusts him, and I’m in no way trying to say he’s a bad player, I still think he’s plenty worth his contract, but I think there is a need to be honest when you’re using your talent. You may have signed an everyday starter, but you paid him what an MLB bench player makes, maybe embrace he can’t play a full on starter’s workload and hope you get maximum performance out of him more often when he plays. I’d take the best of what Ke’ has to offer 4 or 5 days a week over mediocre Ke’, nursing his back, trying to be careful about over stretching or whatever it is we see on a near nightly basis.
Sometimes that’s how things work. It’s no different than signing someone you think might be a platoon player, and guess what, he gets paid just like that too. Don’t look now, I’ll do it for you, but he kinds hits like a platoon player too. This season he’s hitting .340 vs southpaws and .192 with far more at bats vs righties. He’s always been better against lefties, it’s just not always been this stark. A starter at any position can’t really be have splits vs righties like that and be a starter for long.
Again, I’m not saying bench him, or that there are better options right there waiting, I’m just saying, keep developing, and if better comes along, let it happen. I love Ke’, best defender I’ve seen, but I’m not married to him absolutely needing to be the nailed on starting 3B through 2030.
Maybe he meets some magic chiropractor who teaches him some Zen way of snapping it back into shape, or maybe this new mattress he bought will really help? Someone Call Purple, this mofo needs that mattress that can’t crack an egg!
All I know is, Ke’Bryan plays a lot more than his body would like, and the more he plays, the less he does with the stick. One of those things has to change to see if the other might improve, that’s all I got.
This probably isn’t a real conversation for this year, it’s just something I’ve been thinking about, especially as I try to see this thing over the next several seasons.
Steel City Pirates 