6-29-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
After getting trounced by Charlie Morton in last night’s game, the Pirates will try to rebound against a pitcher who is having an even better season: Max Fried.
Fried currently sports a 7-3 record with a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 90 innings pitched this season with 80 strikeouts and 27 walks.
Outside of his first two starts this year where he allowed 10 earned runs off 12 hits and 4 walks over just 5 innings, Fried has been quietly among the best in MLB. Since April 12, only Ranger Suarez (1.88) and Gavin Stone (2.11) have posted better ERA among qualified starters than Fried’s 2.12 in that time.
The Braves southpaw doesn’t rack up a ton of strikeouts but gets weak contacts and ground balls at an elite level. His average exit velocity (85.3) is best among qualified starters while his ground ball (60.7%) and barrel rate (4.5%) are each 4th best in their respective categories.
The Braves defense enters play today with the least amount of errors (31) in MLB, providing critical importance for a pitch-to-contact arm like Fried.
Fried struggled in his last start against the Pirates where he allowed 4 runs off 6 hits so the Bucs will want to find a way to repeat that success.
His arsenal consists of a mid-90s fastball, mid-70s curve, low-90s sinker and mid-80s changeup. He sprinkles in a slider, cutter and sweeper as well with limited use.
Fried works his 4-seam high and away against right-handed hitters while naturally dropping the curve low in the zone. He also keeps the sinker and changeup low but work both pitches inside to avoid barrels and produce weak grounders.
His 4-seam has technically been the most hittable but all of his main offerings have a low average launch angle so Pirates bats will need to be crafty today, working counts and trying to find holes in the infield if they aren’t able to get much to drive.
Based on the numbers, the Pirates would be best served by leaning on some weird reverse splits as LHH are posting a batting average more than 200 points higher than RHH with nearly double the OPS (.837 vs .431).
It’s a small sample size buoyed by extremes in BABIP as Fried’s career line against hitters from both sides of the plate have been about even but something to keep in mind entering play today.
Let’s Go Bucs!
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