Series Preview: Cardinals (43-40) at Pirates (40-43)

7-2-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

Time for some get back isn’t it?

It’s the first series of July for the Pittsburgh Pirates as they welcome their NL Central rival, the St. Louis Cardinals, a team they played for the first time in 2024 just a few weeks ago, losing two of three in Busch Stadium.

In that series, despite the two losses, Pittsburgh did not allow more than four earned runs while not scoring more than three, so a defensive series could be on tap once again at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh currently trails St. Louis by three games, as evidence to the mirrored records, with the Cardinals winning seven of their past 10 and the Pirates splitting their last ten games down the middle at 5-5.

The Pirates enter this crucial series on the heels of a series loss to the Atlanta Braves, salvaging a game in the series on Sunday. The Cardinals enter after a series win over the Cincinnati Reds, separating St. Louis and Cincinnati by about 4.5 games in the division.

Pittsburgh avoids Sonny Gray this time around, with the Cardinals rotations featuring three right-handers, while Pittsburgh will toss two right-handers and a left-hander.

So, let’s take a look at both of these teams as they enter what I consider a must-win series for both teams to begin the month of July.

7/2
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) –9-4, 98.1 IP, 3.30 ERA, 91 Ks/27 walks, 1.22 WHIP
Cardinals – Kyle Gibson (R) – 5-3, 87.2 IP, 3.70 ERA, 77 Ks/36 walks, 1.24 WHIP

7/3
Pirates – Jared Jones (R) –5-6, 86.0 IP, 3.66 ERA, 93 Ks/25 walks, 1.10 WHIP
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas (R) – 6-7, 94.2 IP, 5.32 ERA, 68 Ks/18 walks, 1.25 WHIP

7/4
Pirates – Martin Perez (L) –1-4, 61.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 50 Ks/21 walks, 1.61 WHIP
Cardinals – Andre Pallante (R) – 4-3, 38.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 31 Ks/18 walks, 1.58 WHIP

Pirates: Nick Gonzales

This spot has usually been reserved by Bryan Reynolds over the past couple weeks, and rightfully should be, but Nick Gonzales seems to be coming out of his first real lull in the 2024 season since returning to the big league roster.

Gonzales has hit safely in four of his past five games, including two multi-hit games versus Atlanta and Cincinnati. Gonzales has a .280/.333/.360 slash in his past seven-games and has become a steady presence in the Pirates middle of the order.

In the past matchup between these two teams, Gonzales hit 1-for-4 in two games, with both of his hits being of the double fashion, so expect a potentially big series from Gonzales versus the Red Birds.

Cardinals: Brendan Donovan
Brendan Donovan has had quite the season for the Cardinals, posting a .742 OPS with 8 HR and 41 RBIs.

In his past seven, he has a .292/.393/.333 slash with three RBIs, and outside of shortstop Masyn Winn, you could argue Donovan has been one of the more consistent hitters in the Cardinals lineup this year.

Donovan recorded a hit in all three games of the prior series between these clubs, which included one home run and two RBIs. Keep an eye on the versatile Donovan as he’ll face two strong right-handers in Mitch Keller and Jared Jones and face a tough left-handed matchup with Martin Perez.

Pirates: Jared Jones
Jared Jones has had one heck of a rookie season, and it’s hard to place him in this category, but the league seems to be pushing back a bit.

Jones has allowed five earned runs or more in two of his past five starts, failing to exit the fifth inning in either of those starts. Jones also hasn’t pitched in over a week after going seven strong versus Tampa Bay, but a 4.85 ERA over his past seven outings is cause for at least some worry.

This series will be the first time that Jones faces the Cardinals in his career, seeing as he did not start in the prior series, and the Cardinals offense will be a challenge, but one that could potentially get Jones back on the right track if he can command his stuff accordingly.

Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt
St. Louis has had the duo of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt for some time now, and at age 36, I think we are starting to see the decline begin for Goldschmidt.

Goldschmidt is hitting .225 on the season with a .655 OPS, recording 11 homers and 33 RBIs, numbers the Cardinals cannot be all that happy about with the payday that Goldschmidt garners.

Things haven’t been much better over the past seven games, as Goldschmidt has a .160/.222/.320 slash in 25 at-bats, and with two powerful right-handers on the mound for Pittsburgh, the struggles will seemingly continue for Goldschmidt.

Key Injuries

Pirates:
Pittsburgh is still looking to get healthy as far as pitching is concerned, recently getting Martin Perez back from the IL and awaiting the returns of Marco Gonzales, Ryan Borucki and Quinn Priester, who seem to be getting closer and closer to returning.

Henry Davis has his rehab halted after complications with his concussion, struggling during the short stint before his rehab halted. That leaves Joey Bart and Yasmani Grandal to man the catcher position for now.

Cardinals:
St. Louis has pitching injuries of their own, with Steven Matz and Kenyan Middleton both of the 60-day IL.

Lars Nootbar, who has dealt with injuries all season, is on the IL with an oblique injury, while the Cardinals hope down the line that Tommy Edman can make a return at some point this season, although the wrist injury could keep him sidelined for the entirety of 2024.

What to Watch

Watch the Pirates offense versus the Cardinals starting pitching in this series.

Pittsburgh had a strong series in Cincinnati offensively, recording 30 hits across the three games versus Cincinnati, but they saw a decline in production in the Peach State this past weekend. The Pirates are obviously a much better team when the offense is clicking, posting a 28-12 record on the season when the offense records eight hits or more.

Avoiding Sonny Gray helps the cause for a much better series offensively for Pittsburgh, and with two of their three best pitchers going, run support will be huge. If Pittsburgh can pitch well versus St. Louis, which they’ve proven they can do already versus St. Louis earlier this year, then they can easily take the series here, and quite honestly, they have to take the series to remain confident moving towards big series versus the Mets and Brewers prior to the All-Star break.