7-2-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
It’s been nearly 50 years since the Cardinals had a starting pitcher with the surname Gibson – and while today’s starter doesn’t have the hall of fame trajectory of his predecessor, the Pirates will still have barriers to beating their opponent in tonight’s match: Kyle Gibson.
Signed this past offseason by St. Louis, the 36-year old veteran righty is having a solid first half with the Cardinals, entering tonight with a 5-3 record, 3.70 ERA and 1.24 over his 87.2 innings pitched.
Having faced the Pirates four times previously, Gibson managed 5 innings in his start against the Bucs last season where he allowed 4 runs off 7 hits and 3 walks to 5 strikeouts in the game.
That said, strikeouts are not a big part of the well-traveled righty’s game. Gibson is a ground ball merchant, working mostly low-90s sinker, low-80s sweeper and high-80s cutter to aid in his excellent 49.4% ground ball rate.
He also offers a 4-seam fastball, changeup and curve used less frequently but everything is typically either down or running inside against opposing hitters. His expected numbers across the board indicate that he’s been more lucky than good thus far this year, and luck only goes so far in this game.
His .264 BABIP is well below his career rate of .304 and his xERA (4.84), FIP (4.19) and xFIP (4.05) are all close to what he posted last season when he had a 4.73 ERA during his last year in Baltimore.
He has become less effective as the season progressed as he allowed 3+ runs in 3 of his last 4 started last month with a 25:11 K:BB ratio in those 22.2 innings.
His career ERA in the 2nd half of the season (5.13) is more than a full run higher than his first half (4.02).
Additionally, Gibson has reverse home/away splits as he’s performed better on the road (2.68 ERA/.172 oBA) than at home (4.70 ERA/.276 oBA).
Key to victory is getting to Gibson early. Lay off the sweeper (44.9% whiff rate) but attack anything hard and elevated. The expected batting average on his non-sweeper/changeup offerings are all .280+ and, eventually, results will reflect that.
Don’t let him get settled in early as he has a 4.65 ERA first time through a lineup but drops to 2.29 second time around.
Gibson has gotten lucky lately but he’s been hit harder lately and the dam is looking to break. Break it tonight and get that Jolly Roger raised.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 