Series Preview: Mets (42-43) at Pirates (41-45)

7-5-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

Well, lovers of Burger King, Wendy’s, Arby’s or any other fast food chain, it’s time to face your biggest enemy, Grimace, the purple, well, whatever he’s supposed to be, pseudo mascot of the New York Mets since, well it, I guess, threw out the first pitch at a Mets game a few weeks ago.

Following a brutal series loss to the St. Louis Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Pirates welcome the Mets to PNC Park for Bucco Luau weekend for a four-game set, a critical series for both teams and their wild card hopes, and yes, I just said that in July.

Pittsburgh, sitting at 41-45, is now four games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, while the Mets are 2.5 games out at 42-43, trailing the previously mentioned Cardinals.

The Mets enter this series after splitting a series with the Washington Nationals, losing the final two games of the series. The last time these teams met, it was at Citi Field, with the Mets winning two-out-of-three games over the Pirates.

Both of these teams will be looking for yet another big series win, or at worst a split, as the All-Star Break draws closer, so let’s preview the action that will take place at PNC Park over the next four days.

7/5
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R) – 4-0, 52.1 IP, 2.06 ERA, 70 Ks/10 walks, 1.03 WHIP
Mets – Luis Severino (R) – 5-2, 97.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 74 Ks/32 walks, 1.16 WHIP

7/6
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) – 4-6, 88.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 59 Ks/26 walks, 1.14 WHIP
Mets – David Peterson (L) – 3-0, 33.1 IP, 3.51 ERA, 22 Ks/14 walks, 1.44 WHIP

7/7
Pirates – TBD –
Mets – Sean Manaea (L) – 5-3, 83.1 IP, 3.67 ERA, 81 Ks/36 walks, 1.27 WHIP

7/8
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 9-5, 103.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 96 Ks/27 walks, 1.25 WHIP
Mets – Christian Scott (R) – 0-2, 33.1 IP, 4.32 ERA, 27 Ks/8 walks, 1.14 WHIP

Pirates: Rowdy Tellez

Rowdy Tellez was the scapegoat for all of the Pirates issues in April and May, but ever since his best buddy Xander came to see him play in Toronto, the flip has switched for Tellez and his performance.

Tellez has a .309/.343/.485 slash with 4 HR and 15 RBIs over the past 30 games, with three of those home runs coming in the last seven games he’s appeared in. He’s been playing well, and despite the Mets throwing two left-handers, Rowdy should play the majority of the series with the way his bat is playing right now.

Mets: Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor is one of the pillars for the Mets success and also one of the biggest reasons they’ve played such great baseball as of late.

Lindor has a .309/.329/.559 slash with 3 HR and 9 RBIs in his past 15 games and currently has a .756 OPS on the season. Those numbers are below his career averages, but when you consider the start to the season that Lindor and the Mets had, New York will surely take what he’s been able to do over the past few weeks to a month.

Pirates: Colin Holderman

Colin Holderman could very well end at up at the All-Star game in a few weeks representing the Pirates, but as of late, Holderman has hit a rough patch after being untouchable for most of the season.

A 5.14 ERA over his past seven appearances is worrisome, especially when you consider his high leverage role in the bullpen. The runs he’s allowed didn’t exactly lose the Pirates the games they lost, but heading into a crucial series against his former team, one would hope Holderman will be at his best because the Pirates need everybody to be.

Mets: JD Martinez

JD Martinez was a marquee signing for the Mets this past offseason, and overall, he’s done rather well, posting an .851 OPS with 10 HR and 37 RBIs, but he hasn’t had that same success recently for New York.

Martinez has a .185/.353/.370 slash in his last 27 at-bats, an indication of a slump arriving for the 36-year old designated hitter. With three right-handers expected to go for Pittsburgh, with two of them being Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller, this could be yet another tough stretch for Martinez.

Key Injuries

Pirates

Pittsburgh announced on Wednesday that Jared Jones would be heading to the 15-day IL as a result of a lat strain, effectively removing him from the roster through the next couple weeks up to the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Henry Davis is on another rehab assignment with concussion symptoms, while Marco Gonzales, Ryan Borucki and Quinn Priester continue to make headway for returns soon.

Mets

Starling Marte has been out since June 23 with a knee injury, with a return expected soon. Drew Smith is on the 15-day IL with an elbow injury, as is Sean Reid-Foley with a shoulder injury. Brooks Raley, Shintaro Fujinami, and Ronny Mauricio are all on the 60-day IL.

What to Watch

Honestly, in a series of this magnitude in July, I am looking for which team strikes early and often in these games. Both of these teams have been outscored in their last 10 games, and both of these teams feature solid pitching heading into this one, so getting early leads is going to be huge in deciding which team may come out and ultimately win this four-game set.

This four-game set will have somewhat of a playoff feel, even in July, because both of these teams are still right in the middle of the NL Wild Card race, and finding a way to win, or at least split, these four games is crucial for both sides, so scoring early is what I am watching for in this one.