Starter Spotlight: Civale-Deja Vu

7-11-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Chance for a crucial series win today as Paul Skenes once again will pitch the deciding game against opposing starter, Aaron Civale – a rematch from June 23 while Civale was still a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.

In that game, Civale pitched 5 frames of 3-hit, 1-run ball with his only blemish being a 4th inning home run by Bryan Reynolds as the Pirates lost 3-1.

Now on his third team in less than a year, Civale is set to make his second start with his new club after allowing 4 runs in 5 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his Brewers debut last week.

In that outing, Civale leaned more heavily on his sinker whereas his previous outings had his cutter as his primary pitch. He also significantly cut down usage of his curve (which he’s thrown 17% this season) and eliminated his 4-seam and splitter, both of which have generated poor results for Civale.

While I covered most of the main things to know about Civale last time, we’re going to focus on his main pitches to target – namely, his low-90s sinker, high-80s cutter and low-80s sweeper – and I’ll touch on the curve a bit.

He’s typically paired the cutter and curve against LHH while dropping in the sinker/sweeper when facing RHH. The curve drops straight down and out of the zone so if a lefty is seeing horizontal movement on a pitch, they should just lay off it especially as it has the lowest expected batting average (.205) and expected slugging percentage (.345) among his offerings.

In contrast, lefties should look to target that cutter. Civale mixes throwing up and in or up and away but it is typically elevated resulting in the highest woBA (.360) among those four offerings.

For righties, expect Civale work pitch inside frequently with both that sinker and sweeper. Look to get ahead on the sinker as the pitch has resulted in 6 of Civale’s 19 home runs this year with an oSLG of 476. His sweeper has a TON of spin (3,022 RPM) but if he hangs it, it also has been very easy to drive with 4 long balls hit off the pitch.

With Skenes on the bump for the Pirates, this is a winnable game. Civale is an opponent that this team can and should be able to beat. He’s going to throw strikes so look to attack pitches early in counts and get runs on the board to back your All Star ace!

Let’s Go Bucs