7-12-2024– By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on X and Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X
Justin Verno- Corey, welcome back to the MLB JULY Trade Deadline! Typing that, MLB July Trade Deadline, feels like all is right in the world my, dude!
Corey Shrader- Trade season is always a hotly anticipated adventure. In recent years we have seen this club with a pretty clear directive bent towards “sell.” 2024 is seeing the club positioned slightly differently to-date, doesn’t it?
JV- Sure does, Corey. Why is that? Currently, our Pittsburgh Pirates are sitting 2.5 games out of the last wild card spot and man alive, it seems like they’ve been about 3-5 games out forever and a day. The reason they are still hanging in there? The starting rotation has been terrific. Paul Skenes being as advertised and Jared Jones being better than most had hoped. Throw them in with Mitch Keller and the Bucs will have as good a one, two three as any playoff team can run out there. Mix in the ‘pitching out of his mind’ Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, Marco Gonzales, and Martín Pérez and the Bucs not only have a deep rotation, they have some arms they can trade at the deadline. (Perhaps more in a few weeks?)
CS- This is not even to mention the other rising pitching pieces too. Not really what the point of our exercise here is, but it is quite the pitching pipeline flowing.
JV- But we digress. Let’s stop talking about the reasons WHY General Manager Ben Cherington should add to this year’s team and talk about WHAT he needs to add to this year’s team.
CS- The team does have some fairly clear needs. Most of which falls on the offensive side of the squad. With the level of pitching this club has been getting, it is tough not to dream on what an improved offense could do for the win column.
JV- Before we get too far down the path, here is the link to our original piece (by Joe Boyd and I). It has the formula we use for the trades so if you’re new to the site or don’t remember, check it out. I think that’s enough stalling, let’s get to it.
Despite the recent troubles, GMBC and his front office should not change gears. They need 2 bats (at least) and frankly the 2024-25 FA class just doesn’t offer any help. On top of that, there is only one OF in the pipeline that might offer some help but it’s an easy bet that Charles McAdoo is at least a year away.
Corey, why don’t you take the first swing here.
LOW KEY BUY
CS- One of my favorite places to look for trade targets has always been “blocked” or underrated prospects in the upper minors. Often times talent can be acquired from this situation and added to the acquiring team’s 40 man roster and then make an immediate impact.
So, for the first OF trade target I would like to pursue, the Twins are the team to reach out to.
Pirates get: DaShawn Keirsey Jr. – OF
Yandro Hernandez – OF
Twins get: Martín Pérez – SP
Keirsey Jr. would be the type of piece that would be a plug & play for a team that is in need of a OF that can also play a capable centerfield. Currently having a tremendous campaign at AAA in his age 27 season, he is very much a candidate to be given a long look in the majors. At a certain point “older” prospects need to be provided with the chance to sink or swim at the highest level. The Twins have not been eager to promote him yet even with the AAA line of:
10 homers, 15 doubles, 4 triples, 41 runs scored, 51 RBI, 19 steals, slashing .300/.376/.519, a .389 wOBA, & a 127 wRC+.
He sports above average exit velocities and a strong quality of contact to boot.
His availability would hinge on how the Twins organization views his fit and how they anticipate the need to deploy him in the near term. I believe he could be pried away if the Pirates can help them fill an immediate need. Additionally, the Bucs could likely pry a Complex (CPX) or Dominican Summer League (DSL) lotto ticket away in this move. For this exercise, I have included Cuban born switch hitter, Yandro Hernandez. Hernandez is a bit old for the DSL, but he has just made his debut and is only 17 games into his professional career with Minnesota. I’d also note that this player secondary piece could realistically be any lower minors option (CPX/DSL) as they are very much speculative assets that take years to develop in most cases.
Minnesota is a strong ball club, so finding an area of need is somewhat difficult. One area that is slightly deficient is left handed pitching. Here I propose sending Martin Perez, but, realistically, would be absolutely willing to send Aroldis Chapman or Marco Gonzales here. And, personally, I would do Gonzales for Keirsey Jr. in a straight 1 to 1 exchange.
JV- I know a lot of fans don’t want to see another trade for a prospect. I can hear it now, Corey. ‘Troy from Blawnox thinks we’re Nutting Fanboys. And he thinks we’re stupid to add another prospect and something, something, I want to win now.’ And sure, adding a prospect is not at all what fans want right now, but this is a viable and likely low cost add and has the added bonus of control. And right now control is needed more than a proven bat, provided that bat is a rental.
CS – I am sure that would be the criticism of a move like the one I am suggesting. But that is OK. A player like Keirsey Jr., while not yet a major league player, is deserving of a chance to find out if he can be one. Adding that type of player is not so different from adding a vet and will both be cheaper and have control remaining.
JV- I’m going to take a slightly different approach here. But I’m sure I will hear the same complaints.
Corey, I’m turning my attention to the LA Dodgers.
LA Dodgers get
Martín Pérez or Marco Gonzales- LHSP- MLB
A once mighty rotation has taken some hits and adding Perez or Gonzales would give them a LH starter that could slide into the pen as some of their arms find their way back. It also allows them to make a move like this while giving up very little.
Liover Pegeuro – SS/2B-ETA: Debuted SV? Hard to gauge
I hate moving Peggy here, but bear with me. Max Muncy has missed time. Mookie Betts is still out. Peggy offers both 3B and 2B flexibility. But there’s more: I imagine LAD will back up the truck for Chicago White Sox OF Luis Robert Jr. Having Peggy to throw into that deal could help give the CWS a well rounded package. So I think this is a good piece to dangle.
Pirates get-
James Outman – CF-ETA-Debuted
There was a time LAD fans would have laughed me off these pages for this offer. But Outman really struggled this year earning a trip to AAA, where he gathered dust until a recent injury got him called back up. I get it, a friggin’ reclamation project? I can see GMBC taking this approach though. Outman checks boxes. Control? Till 2029. Power? Check. Young? Well, this is where Corey and I have something in common with these guys. Outman is 27. He’s also a year removed from slashing:
.248/.353/.437, an OPS of .790, wRC+ of 118 and smacking 23 HR.
(Side note: I ignored SV in this trade. FG hasn’t made any adjustments to Outman’s projections but needless to say they will come down. Sometimes the SV’s are great, sometimes you have to put them aside. Sometimes a deal makes sense for other reasons. Like adding a Peggy to flip for Robert Jr.)
CS- Yes, in the first move that I suggested above SV was difficult to tabulate because the key piece from MIN did not have an updated value projection for some time. There is nothing wrong with going with a gut assessment on occasion when trying to conjure up trade moves. Totally agree.
The Big Move
JV- I really would love to see the Bucs push for Luis Robert Jr, but is it realistic? My second choice would be for Rockies CF Brenton Doyle. But I definitely do not see GMBC paying that price. So how about something in between?
Oakland Athletics get-
Termarr Johnson–2B–ETA-2027 (FV 50: SV $28M)
A lot of fans are about to come at me for this, and I completely get it. After a slow start TJ has lit up. So much so that I can see GMBC selling him as a FV 55 with a much higher $46M SV. But let’s stick to the current grade.
Hunter Barco–SP–ETA:2026 (FV 45: SV$4M)
Once set to be a 1st draft pick, the left hander had TJS and fell to the Bucs in the 2nd round. He’s having a nice year and looks set to start moving through the system. Seems a perfect fit for the A’s.
Liover Peguero-SS/2B–Debuted. SV hard to gage
I’m not trying to give Peggy away. I promise. But he seems like the odd man out and I think he will be very attractive to teams due to his power and flexibility.
I think there could be one more piece here: A Sammy Siani (OF FV 35+) or a Mitch Jebb (2B FV 35+) type to round the deal out.
Pirates get-
JJ Bleday -OF–MLB (SV $49M)
The Bucs would have JJ until 2029. JJ isn’t a Luis Robert Jr but he’d be a solid addition to the OF. On the year JJ is slashing
.234/.316/.422 OPS .737 wRC+ 118
He doesn’t strike out a ton (18.4%) and he takes his walks (10.4%) making him a net gain to the lineup. His 11 HR, 22 doubles and 3 triples are what I’m looking to add though.
Another note- This is the A’s; the team that seems to have their very own completely bonkers grading system that somehow seems to work more than we know. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them insist on Braxton Ashcraft as the second piece. At the same time I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them insist on Charles McAdoo (OF no FV grade at present) as the centerpiece. As Forrest Gump might say, “The A’s are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get”.
CS – Adding an upside bat with control remaining would be a massive get for this club. And as you demonstrate here, as a buyer, you’ve got to be willing to pay the cost.
I originally came into this concept with the intent to suggest two moves; one “small” and one “big.” But at the risk of being too clever by half, as they say, I am going to go with two “small” move options.
The motivation for this is simply that I think that this club needs to hunt value and upside while “keeping their powder dry” to the greatest extent possible. This 2024 season looks to be the beginning of what could be a true competitive window. Unless the opportunity presents itself to acquire a true game changer (and I am not sure there is one on the market right now), I would search out buying opportunities in places where playing time is scarce.
Pirates get: Kameron Misner – OF
Rays get: Kyle Nicolas – P
Kyle Nicolas is an extremely “Rays” player. I have little to no doubt that Tampa Bay would want to get their hands on him. I also have little to no doubt that they could mold him into an extremely effective late inning RP.
Kameron Misner is a very good athlete. The lefthanded Misner possesses above-average to plus power & above-average speed. He is capable of playing all three OF positions & his glove receives pretty positive scouting grades to boot. The downside is that he is a little bit of a whiffer. His profile, at a glance, is that of a more athletic & less free swinging version of Matt Gorski. What separates the two is that Misner generally can take a walk and has an overall better quality approach.
Of course Misner is risky due to the type of player profile. But it is not only a risk profile. He has the tools to put up impressive offensive numbers. His approach overall has improved in his second year in AAA and it is not at all impossible to see this type of player simply be a late bloomer.
Much like DaShawn Keirsey Jr, this is the kind of piece I am after. One that you can try to acquire dealing from depth. The type of move that could allow the club to make other moves to address other needs without dealing too many pieces in one deal.
Put a bow on it
CS- Well, JV, I think that might just about do it for us on OF targets. With the increasing rumors coming by the day, we just might see the OF need erased from the board.
Overall, I believe we covered a nice range of possible options for the type of targets the Pirates could aim for.
JV- The pitching is good enough to make this team a contender as long as a few guys can get it going and GMBC can bring some more offense to the yard.
A common thread in all of the packages Corey and I built is control. The Bucs just don’t have an OF bat ready to compete at the major league level. While I like Charles McAdoo, he’s at least a year away and there isn’t much beyond him. It’s time for GMBC to put on his big boy pants and get a deal done to help this team.
And as Corey and I showed here, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Steel City Pirates 