7-13-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
That title is a reach but here we go.
The Pirates finally broke through with their first 3-game win streak in over 4 months but can they get their first series sweep since March?
Starting in what is probably an opener role for the White Sox today is LHP Jared Shuster with former Pirates pitcher, RHP Chad Kuhl, likely slated to work a bulk role in relief.
So let’s overview both just in case, starting with Shuster, who came over to the White Sox from the Braves in an off-season trade after struggling to break through in Atlanta’s rotation over his 2023 rookie year. He posted a 5.81 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP over 52.2 innings in his first MLB season but he has looked a bit better with Chicago, albeit in a more limited role. Entering play today, Shuster has a 3.52 ERA and 1.41 WHIP through 38.1 innings this year.
Transitioning from starter to reliever has hidden some of the EXTREME issues with Shuster. He has gotten decent results despite having very poor strikeout and walk rates – with his K-BB% at the 14th worst among pitchers with 30+ innings pitched.
The one thing he has done well is limiting hard contact as his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are all in the top 20th percentile in all of baseball.
Looking at his arsenal, he’s mostly relied on a low-90s 4-seam, low-80s changeup and a mid-80s slider. His slider is almost exclusively used against LHH as his main pitch in those instances, running down and in against opposing batters. Against RHH, he roles out the fastball center cut and the changeup dropping down and in to generate the weak contact.
None of the pitches rate all that favorably but they have been able to over-perform expected outcomes due to the small sample size granted in a relief role but his soft stuff should be the target early on for Bucs bats today.
Final note on this guy, Shelton is probably going to stack righties against him (even with Cutch likely sitting due to the hamstring pull) but that is a poor idea.
For one, he’s clearly an opener and has lasted less than 3 frames in 15 of his last 17 games. He maxed at 64 pitches in an outing during a game last month but has mostly been in the 20-30 pitch range.
For another, left-handed hitters have performed better against Shuster with an .862 OPS against in 61 plate appearances this season, compared to .620 OPS for righties through 104 plate appearances.
Checking into Kuhl, who has had a roller coaster career and has had some bad breaks in both his personal and professional life, he gets another big league opportunity on the south side of Chicago.
He started the season in the minor leagues but since joining the White Sox, Kuhl has thrown 17.1 innings over 6 games with a 4.15 ERA and 16 strikeouts and 12 walks in that time.
Kuhl offers a mid-90s sinker and high-80s slider as his main offerings, adding in a high-70s sweeper against RHH and pairing a low-90s cutter with a high-80s changeup when facing LHH.
It’s a small sample size but the slider has clearly been the strikeout pitch for Kuhl as he has notched 9 of his Ks with opponents batting just .107 against the pitch. On the other hand, his sinker has been CRUSHED with a .400 oBA and a .750 oSLG with an average exit velocity of 96.3 against the pitch.
When he leaves the sinker elevated, it’s a meatball and batters should smash it every time. Lay off the slider until you get 2-strike counts and then just try to foul off anything close because the sinker is the clear target for hitters today.
Lefties have been excellent against Kuhl this year, and is another reason why Shelty should stack them from the start. They have a .953 OPS compared to a .388 OPS for righties.
The Pirates have won 5 of 6 this past week but have a chance for a sweep today against the worst team in baseball and finish the first half at the .500 mark. Go lefty-heavy and attack the pitches you should be attacking.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 