7-15-24 – By Joe Boyd – @Joe_Boyd11 on Twitter
Fangraphs was a bit late to the game to update their MLB Draft rankings/scouting grades this year. So the COMPS article is more of a retrospective look at the Bucco picks for the draft rather than a more speculative piece.
With the 9th overall pick, the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Konnor Griffin, a SS/OF prep prospect.
The merits of the pick and if it aligns with the Pirates current window can be left to the rest of the site, those guys are better prepared to answer that question. I’m here to compare him to similar players based on those Fangraphs scouting reports.
For those that don’t know about the COMPS article, I have the data from the Fangraphs prospects writers over the years and I compare the Pirates picks to historical information. So Kiley Daniel, Eric Longenhagen, and the rest of that team will provide scouting grades on the draft prospects and the minor league players around the league, and I utilize z-scores to see the most similar players to the MLB draft prospects. Here’s a longer explanation, if you are interested.
The place I want to start is the Fangraphs scouting report on Konnor Griffin: “Griffin went wire-to-wire as one of the most talented high school players from this draft class during its two-plus year scouting window. He was a super-projectable SS/RF as an underclassman. He has already grown considerably stronger and is now a hulking 6-foot-4, 205 pounds… he’s probably a little too stiff to play the infield in pro ball. The speed at which Griffin can go zero to 60 at his size is incredible… Griffin’s bat-to-ball track record is very good across multiple years on the showcase circuit, but long levers often make him late on fastballs, and this will probably get worse in pro ball… He still has incredible twitch for a prospect his size and has a shot to have both plus-plus raw power and speed at maturity (only one is projected here), plus it’s probably worth trying to develop Griffin in center field. The more he focuses solely on that, the better his feel for the outfield could become. Toolsy high school outfielders like this typically come off the board in the middle third of the first round.”
From here, I would typically suggest a Comparable player that would excite the fanbase and a comparable Pirate. But since we’re doing things differently this year, I’ll try to do a Floor, a Ceiling, and a more likely option. I’m going to include the Sim Score, that’s just how similar the player is to Griffin, the lower the score the more similar.
The Floor
Jon Gray Jr – OF – MIL – 2018 – SIM: 8.94
Ryder Green – OF – NYY – 2019 – SIM: 9.21
Brennen Davis – OF – CHC – 2022 – SIM: 8.03
This just illustrates the risk of a pick like this. These players were all highly touted prospects with loud tools that were far away from the Majors. The variables in play for a prospect at 18 years old are many. Griffin has a real hole in his scouting report, with long levers, he has difficulty catching up to velocity. If that problem is not corrected, he is likely to join these players as forgotten prospects/busts. Griffin does, however have the chance to resurface as a pitcher, but I’m not going to elaborate on that in this article.
The Ceiling
Julio Rodriguez – OF – SEA – 2018 – SIM: 8.95
Now this should have you salivating. Imagine plugging Rodriguez into the lineup with Paul Skenes on the mound. The Pirates could have a duo of superstars in the near future. In 2018, Rodriguez was 18 years old and Fangraphs had the future value on his tools at:
Hit: 45
Power: 58
Speed: 40
Fielding: 50
Arm: 55
Just looking at where Griffin is today, based on the same scout, he has comparable Power, he’s significantly faster with a better fielding tool and better arm. If everything clicks and Griffin can develop that hit tool to handle velocity, this is the top end and a game changing draft pick.
Realistic Result:
Heliot Ramos – OF – SFG – 2018 – SIM: 8.94
Ramos, a former 19th overall pick, has been a player that I’ve admired for some time. He was as highly ranked as the 61st prospect in baseball in 2021. His profile took a serious dip over the last few years and he fell to a 35 FV rated prospect, which is effectively worthless. This year, however, he’s already produced 2.4 WAR with a batting average of .298 and an OPS of .888 and 14 homers. It took several years, and several turns in his development to hit in the Majors consistently, but hopefully he is finally there. In this scenario, Griffin could eventually develop into a strong contributor, but if it takes longer than anticipated it could affect the contention window that we all expect to open soon and he may eventually become a trade chip.
Pirates Comp
Lonnie White – OF – PIT – 2022 – SIM: 9.52
Usually, I have to search the list to find the most comparable Pirate, but White is nearly the most comparable player in the database. White is yet another cautionary tale as his delays can be attributed to injury. He is another player that needs to ensure his hit tool develops if he’s going to be able to tap into the other potential tools in his arsenal. Both Griffin and White are uber athletes and are going to need to tap into that, but also refine their skills if they are to be in the Buccos everyday lineup.
To conclude, Griffin is the type of player that becomes special. He has all the tools and all the ability to be an absolute star. If everything lines up, this team could be special and this player could be the final piece of the puzzle. That path is littered with former stars and can’t-miss prospects, however. Griffin must develop and navigate his journey perfectly to hit the timing with a Pirates contender. A slip up or an injury could derail that timing, which could jeopardize the stars aligning which could result in Konnor being a reliever or a trade chip. It’s an intriguing pick, no doubt.. One that comes with a myriad of risks.
With the 37th selection, the Pirates selected Prep RHP, Levi Sterling
Already 6’5 and 200 pounds, he has the MLB frame that could also had muscle/velocity and he’s got a repeatable delivery. More from Longenhagen, “Skinny 6-foot-5 righty with relatively advanced repertoire and effortless delivery. Short, repeatable arm stroke, especially for his size. Fastball was in the upper-80s last fall with Team USA, more 92-93 this spring. Secondary pitches all have distinct shape and movement; Sterling lives around the zone with them but lacks precise command. None of the secondary weapons are particularly nasty right now, requires projecting on Sterling throwing everything harder. Lower-variance high school prospect with backend starter projection.”
This profile is extremely intriguing, however it must be taken with considerable salt considering the player is so young. When looking through his best COMPS, I struggle to find a comparable player at his age.
He compares favorably to Ethan Hankins who is in the Cleveland system. Originally, the top Prep Arm in the 2018 draft, he has plateaued quite a bit and proves to be a cautionary tale as these players age/develop.
The Ceiling for Sterling, based on the Fangraphs grades would be Jack Flaherty – STL – 2017. They have nearly identical frames and similar pitch mix. In 2017, Flaherty was 21, however, so that could bode well for Sterling.
Pirates Comp
The player that I think Sterling compares to for the Pirates is Brennan Malone. He shows up in the database as both a Pirate and as a Diamondback. A top piece that was returned in the Starling Marte trade, Malone has seen his career derailed by injury. He, too, was a former first round pick but has barely pitched since having shoulder issues in 2022.
Malone is both the risk and the reward with such a selection. Development of prospects is such a war of attrition that taking an arm this young, this early is bound to have pitfalls. If the Pirates can develop Sterling like their other more recent successes, he has the frame and delivery to rise the ranks rather quickly.
With the 47th pick and their final selection for day 1
The Pirates selected another prep bat, Wyatt Sanford. Here’s his breakdown from Fangraphs: “Perhaps the best high school defensive player in the whole draft, Sanford is a precocious leathersmith with velcro hands. Even at a lanky 6-foot-1, he plays smooth, low-to-the-ground defense and has good range, and he should grow into plus arm strength as he fills out. Offensively, Sanford has a great looking lefty swing but lacks feel for sweetspot contact. It’s fun to watch him uncoil and he could conceivably add more than a grade of raw power on a pro strength program, but Sanford’s contact performance is indicative of a below-average hitter. If he improves as a hitter in pro ball, he’ll have everyday shortstop tools. If not, he’s a glove-first utilityman.”
When we look at COMPS, it so rarely coalesces around one player. But here are the top COMPs for Sanford:
Brice Turang – MIL – 2020 SIM: 3.02
Brice Turang – MIL – 2022 SIM: 4.03
Brice Turang – MIL – 2019 SIM: 4.19
Brice Turang – MIL – 2018 SIM: 4.64
So rather than provide a ceiling or floor for Sanford, I’ll just discuss Turang. Turang was a glove first prospect that never hit prior to pro ball. In 2020, Turang was a 50 FV prospect, and here is what Longenhagen wrote about him: “Turang has two profile-carrying attributes in his ball/strike recognition and defense, while the rest of the profile struggles because he doesn’t square balls up very well. He has a chance to be a plus defender who reaches base a lot, which is basically what J.P. Crawford‘s skill base was, even when he was struggling…”
Since Sanford is a glove-first shortstop, he’ll need to figure out his path to everyday baseball on the offensive side. Perhaps that means he will develop plate control like Turang that give him a short to stick. At worst, he looks to be a defensive utility option as his defense should provide his floor.
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