7-16-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X
The 2024 MLB All-Star break is upon us, which means we have just 66 games remaining in the MLB season – crazy how fast things move nowadays.
The Pittsburgh Pirates, for now, have positioned themselves well, sitting at 48-48 and just 1.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot entering the break, thanks to four consecutive wins in a row and two series victories over Milwaukee and the Chicago White Sox, the longest winning streak in MLB.
With that standing has come plenty of trade deadline discussion, wondering what Ben Cherington and the front office have planned before the July 31 deadline and just how management decides to improve this roster, or if they even do at all.
Some position groups have played much better than others to this point, hence why the team “needs” are pretty clear and apparent to even fans like myself and you.
So, let’s take a look at each offensive position group, what it’s offered the Pirates to this point, or lack thereof, and how things could shake out over the last few months of the season.
Catcher
The catcher position has been a talking point since the off-season.
A season-ending injury to Endy Rodriguez changed the landscape of the catching position for the Pirates before the season even began, and like another young catcher, Rodriguez still has a ton to prove as well, but it suddenly left a gap at the catcher position.
Henry Davis was labeled the unquestioned starter before the season began, and with the addition of Yasmani Grandal, that was your expected group. Fast-forward to present day, and things look drastically different.
The Pirates made a mid-season addition to acquire Joey Bart from the San Francisco Giants, who has had success, although he’s dealt with injury. Davis has been on-and-off the injured list and hasn’t produced when he’s been healthy, leaving the catching position in a state of flux.
The group itself ranks 26th in MLB in WAR(-1.0), ranking just above the Rangers, Cubs, White Sox and Marlins. Of course WAR takes defensive output into account as well, but when you move to the offensive side of things, it’s not great, at all.
The catching unit ranks 26th in OPS(.599), 27th in OBP(.266) and 25th in SLG(.333), so to say the offensive production from the catcher position has been bad would be an understatement.
As mentioned with the WAR number, it takes defense into account as well, and that number is inflated by a 14 DRS from the catching group, so it’s actually been a solid defensive unit all things considered.
Adding to the catching group at the deadline wouldn’t be the worst decision, the only problem is the availability of catchers at this deadline, with Danny Jansen and Elias Diaz being the most likely candidates to be moved.
On top of that, Bart, Davis and Rodriguez are all young, controllable assets at the position, so adding onto that could create a unique problem contractually for the Pirates moving forward.
The hope is that Davis comes up again at some point and truly contributes with the bat, and if Bart can continue to stay steady and be an average bat near the bottom of the order, than I think you’d like that tandem much more than what you’re currently seeing.
First Base
The first base position was labeled a massive need for the Pirates a few months ago, with production at the position being carried by Connor Joe amidst Rowdy Tellez’s struggles.
Now, Tellez has been raking since the calendar turned to June, while Joe has taken a step-back, but collectively, they’ve actually been quite good together.
The first base group ranks 14th in OPS(.727), 11th in batting average(.252), 16th in OBP(.314) and 17th in offensive WAR(0.5), so although it’s a mostly middle-of-the-pack group, it’s a much better group than what we saw in the first two months collectively.
Even more surprising is how good the group has been defensively, posting a 7 WAR, which ranks second in MLB behind the Braves and Giants.
Now, both Tellez and Joe are not what you would consider long-term options, but for now, they’ve been fine, and if the Pirates decided to search for a long-term first baseman, I wouldn’t be shocked nor upset.
The story of the first base position will continue, for now, to be told by Tellez and Joe, and if they can continue to be at least average, that’s a good thing for a Pirates team that thought very differently about first base a month or two ago.
Second base
Second base became an immediate talking point in Spring Training upon the return of Oneil Cruz, who’s injury in 2023 opened up a ton of playing time for the ample, youthful options the Pirates had at their disposal.
Jared Triolo won that “battle” out of Spring, with Nick Gonzales joining the fold and since taking over the position in May, while Ji-hwan Bae was even featured in small stints.
Collectively, the Pirates second base group ranks 22 in MLB in offensive WAR(0.7), led mostly by Gonzales, who is and should remain the Pirates second base option moving forward.
Where the worry comes in is defensively, as the group ranks 29th in MLB in DRS(-10), but if the offensive production continues, specifically from Gonzales, second base should be an area of strength despite the defensive woes.
Third base
Outside of Triolo featuring at third base due to injury, Ke’Bryan Hayes has and will continue to be the guy at third base.
The 2023 Gold Glove winner entered 2023 coming off an insane second half of 2023, looking to enter 2024 with momentum, but he hasn’t quite pulled it all together.
Hayes slashes .244/.297/.311/.608 with 3 HR and 21 RBIs right now, numbers you’d like to see improve, specifically the OPS number.
As of late, Hayes has played much better, slashing .328/.339/.362 in his last 58 at-bats, so he’s picked it up, especially after collecting a hit in all three games versus the White Sox before the break.
Hayes is on a lengthy extension, and his defense will always be there, hence why the Pirates collectively at third base lead in DRS(25), with the next closest team being 12 DRS away, but the cherry on top will always be his potential offensive production, and as a middle-of-the-order bat, you’d hope Hayes finds consistency in the batter’s box in the second half like he did last season.
Shortstop
Like third base, shortstop has been manned by one player, Oneil Cruz.
Cruz entered 2024 after missing virtually all of 2023 due to injury, with plenty on his plate to produce entering his first full season of work for the Pirates.
He’s done well, flashing Statcast numbers left-and-right, slashing .246/.299/.438/.737 with 14 HR and 44 RBIs on the season, including seven stolen bases.
There have been minor injury concerns for Cruz at points in the season, but nothing that has sidelined him for a length period. We’ve seen Triolo feature at shortstop on days when Cruz needs a day off, but its Cruz’s position until he says otherwise.
The defense of course is a massive question mark, even though I think Cruz has done fine handling himself there. He tends to rush himself at times and make poor throws or decisions, but he’s also done well at ball tracking and finding the right spots to be in at baseball’s premier position, but a -17 DRS at shortstop is still concerning.
For Cruz, it’s all about the bat, always has, always will be, and he isn’t going anywhere, and his production will surely get better with each plate appearance.
Outfield
Bryan Reynolds has had a stellar season, hence why he got his second All-Star selection, and he’s been the glue that has kept the outfield from being a unit that would be considered among the worst in baseball.
Center field ranks 29th in MLB in offensive WAR(-0.2), 29th in strikeouts(114), 27th in OBP(.267), 28th in SLG(.297), 28th in batting average(.206) and 29th in wins above average(-1.3), so it hasn’t been a good group at all.
Right field isn’t much better, ranking 25th in wins above average(-1.1), 23rd in OPS(.666), 29th in SLG(.339) and 7th in OBP(.327).
We’ve seen the Pirates try to find anything that works in the outfield that works outside of Reynolds, with Jack Suwinski, Michael A. Taylor, Edward Olivares, Connor Joe, Ji-hwan Bae and Joshua Palacios all seeing time at the other outfield spots, but nothing has produced like the Pirates would like, seeing the outfield group become a massive need ahead of the deadline.
I’d argue center field is the biggest of the needs the Pirates have, but the availability, like the catcher position, of players is limited, so the Pirates may need to get creative if they want to solve their center field woes.
Steel City Pirates 
Bang on, well done! I’d like to contribute a thought for each spot.
C: Subtract out Grandal and the to-date MLB performance of Davis, and I imagine this is much more tolerable. I jettison Grandal and stay the course here.
1B: I do not expect his torrid first two months, beautiful to watch, but Joe back on track would be my big desire here, along with keeping Tellez stout–again, not expecting the unrealistic numbers since June began. I could understand someone’s temptation to shake this up, but for 2024 I’m not sure there’s much to improve on beyond what these two should be capable of under their normal to above-average trajectories (which I suppose are subjective).
2B: The negative defense number is interesting, as I’ve thought overall Gonzales and Triolo have looked good at second base. I can’t think Bae affected much with the limited sample, so my expectation is the others’ (or maybe just one’s) range limitations dragged down the number. They’ve made the plays on balls they’ve gotten to, Triolo’s early-season turmoil aside. In fact, I’ve been wondering what the fuss about Gonzales’ defense was about–he’s looked strong.
SS: Opposite problem here–Cruz definitely is weighed down on defense by the throwing and fielding errors, my soapbox issue on him of focus. That has the silver lining that his range is probably therefore good, unless maybe partly masked by 3Bs cutting balls off.
3B: What you Ke’ is what you get. That DRS is absolutely ridiculous, worth the offensive inconsistency if he can balance the disappearing cold streaks with some hot streaks like late 2023. I somewhat understand calls to offload his contract out of fear he’ll be unplayable from back injury, but there’s no way you’re getting fair return value, and I think it’d be a foolhardy mistake of not knowing what you had until it’s gone.
LF: And he got a hit last night, nice to see, even if he did make the final out. He’s carried this offense more than I thought possible, kudos.
CF: I absolutely agree this would be the top spot to address, the biggest black hole. Solely a feeling: Davis is an example of a player who will figure it out, whether this year or next, but Suwinski, man, to have this hard a time and steep a setback in year three? I’m worried his rebound won’t happen, and I was one of his proponents. I can’t help wondering whether a change in hitting coach and philosophy would benefit him in particular, though they’ve seemingly had his approach deviate from the template in some key ways. Whether they add short-term or long-term help here will speak volumes of their degree of confidence in Suwinski long-term.
RF: I know they significantly cooled, but my gut says at least one of Joe and Olivares will rebound this year. My gut (and typical hitter trajectory stacking odds against late bloomers) also say Jolashios will fade. Without moving multiple guys out, I just don’t see room at the inn to add two outfielders, but this is probably my second slot to examine if they decide to buy.
Curious on the defensive metrics at the outfield spots, by the way. I imagine Reynolds rates average to below-average, but maybe the arm has carried him; similar for Suwinski and Joe; Taylor positive but underwhelmingly so from that spurt of trying too hard to make up for poor hitting; Olivares I imagine negative in line with his career defensive trajectory; and the other too small a sample.
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