7-18-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
I won’t lie, it’s been nice taking the past few days off from writing and (for the most part) baseball stuff.
But, starting tomorrow, baseball is back in action and your Pittsburgh Pirates have a 48-48 record, sitting just 1.5 games back of the final wild card spot. That’s the first time they have been .500 or better at the break since 2016.
That’s great!
That’s amazing!
Now what?
Well, over the remainder of the season, the Pirates have the 4th hardest schedule, including an downright GAUNTLET in the coming weeks.
Is this recent run of success sustainable as they enter the toughest battles of the season?
Phillies
Starting off this weekend with arguably their toughest series in the second half, they play host to the MLB-best Philadelphia Phillies – who are currently 62-34, had the most All Star selections of any team in baseball (8) and have created the most dominant pitching in baseball.
As of today, their rotational fWAR of 11.6 is head and shoulders above the next best starting pitching corps in baseball (Atlanta – 9.8) while their bullpen’s fWAR of 4.7 is only 2nd to Cleveland (4.8).
The combined efforts have resulted in a team ERA of 3.42 with an MLB-best 877 strikeouts, backed by Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler – all of whom have a sub-3 ERA.
That’s…really good. And, in case you forgot, they have some SERIOUS bats too as their team wRC+ of 112 is 6th best in baseball with the 4th most runs scored (477) and 3rd best team batting average (.259).
Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm are each posting a 130 wRC+ or higher as part of this disgusting offense.
While the Pirates split the series last time around, even on their home turf, it is going to be tough coming out of the break to battle the Phillies.
Cardinals
They’ll stay at home for another 3-game set facing division-rival St. Louis Cardinals., who inexplicably have rebounded from a 71-91 record last year to a much-improved 50-46 mark at the break.
I’ll admit, I am still at a loss to explain how this team is good. Maybe that’s the Pirates-fan bias? Maybe it’s because their rotation is the oldest in baseball with only baby of the group, 34-year old Sonny Gray, holding an ERA+ above 100 (125).
Someone asked me the other day why they have been doing so well and the only thing I can figure is that the back end of their bullpen has been VERY good with Ryan Helsley leading MLB in saves (32) and Jojo Romero and Andrew Kittredge both top 3 for holds with 26 and 25 respectively.
The Cardinals have also benefitted from a relatively easy first half schedule as they have struggled mightily against the teams they needed to beat, posting a combined 4-13 record against division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers and the aforementioned Phillies.
They have some strengths but even if they make the playoffs, they are not well-positioned for a long-run.
Diamondbacks
The National League pennant winners from last season were a surprise to make the post-season and even more of a surprise to see their Cinderella Story run lead them remarkably close to Arizona’s second title in franchise history.
Alas, they fell short and, even with some off-season additions, they are struggling to keep in the race as they posted a 49-48 record in the first half despite former Pirate Kevin Newman getting a not insignificant amount of reps in their middle infield this season.
The team’s pitching, a strength last year led by Cy Young Finalist Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, has struggled to replicate that success. Gallen and Kelly have only combined to throw 101.1 innings thus far thus season due to numerous injuries and the team ERA (4.80) ranks only ahead of basement-dwellers in the Oakland Athletics, Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies.
Off-season acquisitions Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez have not helped in that regard as Montgomery has a 6.44 ERA through his first 65.2 innings in the desert while Rodriguez has been sidelined all season with a left shoulder strain.
They have managed to keep plugging along thanks to an offense which ranks 9th in OPS (.736) led by 1B Christian Walker and 2B Ketel Marte, who have combined for 38 doubles and 41 home runs this season.
And this is in spite of a very slow start by 2023 Rookie Of the Year, Corbin Carroll, whose .635 OPS in the first half is over 230 points lower than his .868 mark last season.
Astros
I don’t think anyone entered the 2024 season expecting the Houston Astros to not be competitive.
The core of Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez were still firmly part of the team.
They made a big free agent splash by inking LHP Josh Hader to a record deal to be a lock-down arm paired in the back-end of that bullpen with Ryan Pressly.
Sure, the rotation has looked shaky at times but what could go wrong?
On May 11th, 39 games into the season, they were 14-25 while Hader (5.29 ERA) and Pressly (5.65 ERA) were struggling to lock-down the 8th and 9th innings.
Since then, they have rebounded to the level you expect from them as Hader (2.88 ERA in 25 IP) and Pressly (2.42 – 22.1 IP) have helped the Astros post a 36-21 record since then.
The offense has chugged along as its typical resilient self. Even with Tucker on the shelf with a right shin contusion since June 4th, Houston has the 8th best wRC+ (110) and lead MLB in team batting average (.262).
Additionally, the rotation – which has been a mixed bag for the team the past few years – has seen a strong sophomore showing from Hunter Brown, who has a 2.36 ERA over his last 10 starts, as well as a surprisingly strong first half from Ronel Blanco (2.56 ERA in 109 IP).
This has helped Houston post the 3rd lowest rotational ERA since May 12th at (3.50) – just behind the Pirates, who have a 3.41 ERA in that time.
There’s rarely a good time to face the Astros and we are staring down that fate to end the month of July.
Oof!
That’s a stretch of 12 games in 13 days over 3 cities/states and a combined opponent record of 211-174 (a .548 win%), and that’s not including another series at home against Arizona and 3 games hosting the San Diego Padres before heading west for 3 in LA versus the Dodgers and 3 in San Diego.
This is the BIGGEST test of the season for this team. Can they rise to the occasion or will they falter under the pressure?
Only time will tell.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 