7-19-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
Nothing like starting out with arguably the best team in baseball out of the break right? The Pirates don’t get to coast into the last chapter of the season the way they entered the break, instead they’ll stare down what looks like the 4th hardest schedule in baseball.
If they manage to sneak into the Wild Card in 2024, they’ll have earned it.
That’s really how the team should look at it, it’s a challenge to be sure, but if you want to claim you belong in the tournament, you should absolutely expect to hang with and yes beat the other teams in position to get there themselves.
So…
Enter the Dragon…
7/19
Phillies – Aaron Nola (R) – 11-4, 119.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 116 Ks/27 walks, 1.03 WHIP
Pirates – Martin Perez (L) – 1-5, 73.1 IP, 5.15 ERA, 57 Ks/25 walks, 1.62 WHIP
Phillies – Christopher Sanchez (R) – 7-4, 103.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 87 Ks/28 walks, 1.21 WHIP
Pirates – Luis Ortiz (R) – 4-2, 66.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 57 Ks/19 walks, 1.16 WHIP
7/21
Phillies – Tyler Phillips (R) – 1-0, 10 IP, 4.50 ERA, 12 Ks/0 walks, 0.90 WHIP
Pirates – Marco Gonzales (L) – 1-0, 22 IP, 2.45 ERA, 15 Ks/5 walks, 1.23 WHIP
Phillies:
Trea Turner is on another planet right now. In his past 30 games, how about .362 average, a .400 OBP, a .614 SLG, and why not pop 9 homers while you’re racking up your 46 hits. If I broke it down to his last 15 or 7 the numbers only grow. Pray the All Star Break cooled him off.
Pirates:
It’s been Bryan Reynolds for a minute here. Sure Rowdy has hung around and contributed but Reynolds does it every day. The calendar flipping to July didn’t slow him either. Past 30 games, 10 homeruns, .328 average, .379 OBP and a .623 SLG. He’s in one of those spots where Bryan looks like a top 5 outfielder in baseball.
Phillies:
Bryson Stott has largely struggled for the past month. In his last 30 games, a sample size of 109 at bats he’s hitting .229 and struck out nearly a quarter of those bites at the apple. .229 might not qualify as “cold” on the Pirates, but for the Phils, yeah, he’s it.
Pirates:
I’m sticking with Jack until they either demote him or he turns it around. His past 30 he’s hitting .167, with 4 homeruns, 28 strikeouts an OBP of .247 in 84 at bats. That’s not starter level playing time, but it’s far too close to it for that kind of production.
Key Injuries
The Pirates are still without Jared Jones, Ryan Borucki and Bailey Falter, but are lucky to find themselves in position to see them as reinforcements more than gaping holes left behind in their wake.
The Phillies are of course without All World catcher J.T. Realmuto, Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull. Fairly healthy units really for this time of year.
Things to Look For
The main hope here is that somehow taking a week off playing has slowed the Phillies down to merely human. There’s nothing about facing this team that on paper looks favorable to me except potentially facing a rookie pitcher on Sunday.
If I have a glimmer of pre playing hope, it’s that coming out of a break, it’s a lot easier to practice hitting velocity than it is to hit crafty breaking stuff and the Pirates are throwing two guys who do that well in this series.
The Pirates bats have to gear up for Aaron Nola and Christopher Sanchez to start and man, it’s hard to see them just jump back to the mediocre hitting club they had become before the break, but, that’s why we play the games.
The Phillies have too many players to pitch around anyone, but far too often the Pirates manage to keep Harper, Schwarber and Turner in check only to let Bryson Stott or Brandon Marsh destroy them. The intensity can’t change when the expected easier spots pop up in this lineup, they’re just too good.
Steel City Pirates 