7-19-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Heading home for Yinzerpalooza to host the Phillies after the break and, while we won’t have to face some of the big members of their rotation, we are leading off against their mainstay in stalwart Aaron Nola, who has built an impressive track record of success over his 10-year MLB career.
Nola has been the picture of consistency year-in and year-out. He enters play tonight with an 11-2 record and 3.38 ERA over 119.2 innings this year.
He also has 14 quality starts and has allowed 3 or less runs in 16 of his 19 appearances this season.
Over his career, Nola has faced the Pirates 9 times with mixed results as he has posted a 3.98 ERA over 54.1 frames vs Pittsburgh.
He’s never been a “hard-thrower” by any means, as his fastball sits low-90s while utilizing a high-70s knuckle curve as his main pitch.
Both the curve and four seamer have been plus pitches for him with a run value of 8 and 6, respectively.
Nola works the curve down in the zone and attacks hitters high with the heat – but, he changes things up with his sinker, which has not performed as well against opponents as oBA of .284 and oSLG of .474 are both significantly higher than what he sees from his first two offerings.
In fact, outside of the curve/4-seamer, Nola becomes much more of a mortal as his changeup and cutter both have an xBA of .330+ and an xSLG of .520+ against them.
Nola is tough and will attack the zone, work the big swooping curve and keep hitters off-balance. Pirates hitters need to identify the curve early and try to hold off on it, choosing to punish the hanging sinker or changeup/cutter combo.
Holding a 4-game win streak heading into play tonight and a likely sold-out crowd loaded with fans across the state. Get on Nola early and give the team a chance to keep that streak rolling.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 