7-20-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter
Here are your end of the first half tiered NL Central rankings and the Standings.
Tier 1
Milwaukee
Tier 2A
St. Louis
Tier 2B
Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Chicago
National League Central Standings Win Loss
Milwaukee Brewers: 55-42
St. Louis Cardinals: 50-46
Pittsburgh Pirates: 49-48
Cincinnati Reds: 47-51
Chicago Cubs: 47-52
The Brewers have gone wire to wire looking like the top club in the division. Pretty much
everything else has been a wild ride from month to month. Perhaps no Central division
ballclub has had a bigger slide in esteem than the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs are pretty
largely underachieving while their hated rivals Cardinals are very solidly overachieving
at the moment. Zooming in on things like run differential, team offensive & defensive
fWAR, it is within the realm of possibility that the Cubs are still the second best team in
the division by the end of the season. Chicago’s underperformance, in my estimation,
looks like something of a mirage and a hard luck streak.
Cincinnati is also presenting some clear opportunities for making an upside case in the
second half. They have a top 5 run differential in the NL and a top 5 pitching staff in the
NL (by fWAR). The offense has been middling and defense downright poor.
The second half looks like it is going to be just as wild with even more standings
shuffling to come.
Now let’s have a closer look at the Enemies.
Milwaukee Brewers
Lineup
Christian Yelich – I feel like a bit of a broken record, but Christian Yelich is still really good. He
catches TONS of unwarranted heat and accusations of being washed, but that is just plain
wrong. For the year his wOBA is sitting at an elite .401 and his wRC+ is at 161, his highest
since the 2018 & 2019 supernova seasons he posted. I wouldn’t anticipate him matching those MVP type seasons, he is well on his way to putting up something similar to his 2016, 5.3 fWAR type of season.
Willy Adames – Adames has consistently been the Brewers best overall player in 2023. Those
whispers of him being dealt this offseason seem more ridiculous by the month now. He is a high quality defender and a steady producer with the bat. While he is not going to win any batting titles, he is going to have a legitimate chance to post a 30 homer season with above average production and strong defense. Just a plain good ballplayer.
William Contreras – Overall Contreras had a great 1st half. His performance from the beginning of June however has been on the poor side. The wRC+ & wOBA have dipped to below league average for the first stretch in the season. Given that his approach still looks good and the defense played well, it is more likely than not that Contreras just simply had a bad month and nothing more.
Brice Turang – Turang is officially having his coming out party as a real starting caliber
MLB player. While his June was not that spectacular, it was solid nonetheless. He piles up
steals (30 at the break) and plays very strong defense. Turang is the Milwaukee version of 2023 Nico Horener.
Jackson Chourio – Well since June 1 we have seen more of what we’ve expected to see from
the kid. He sported a .350 wOBA/127 wRC+ while blasting 4 homers, 8 doubles, scoring 21
runs, and driving in 19. All in all Chourio appears to be making the appropriate adjustments that teams want to see from young players. His approach looks good, 8.7/18.3 BB/K% since the start of June, and the speed & defense have been very strong on top of that. I think we are seeing the groundwork being laid for a legitimate star player.
Garrett Mitchell – Garrett Mitchell has returned from the shoulder injury that limited him to just 19 games last season. He has only made 33 PAs in 10 games so far, but I think that Mitchell is something of a possible second half X-Factor. He’s got a power/speed blend that is exciting. He will be a player to watch should he get steadier playing time.
Pitching
Freddy Peralta – Freddy’s surface stats are not extremely overwhelming (4.11 ERA, 6-5 W/L),
but the underlying data shows him to be a borderline staff ace still. Peralta remains one of the better strikeout pitchers in the league and he has elicited weaker contact overall this year than his previous two seasons. The ERA will most likely come down some, but he doesn’t need it to be sub-3.00 for him to post near top of the rotation stats.
Robert Gasser – A great debut for the young man, but unfortunately he went down with an
elbow injury. Gasser underwent Tommy John surgery and will be out for a long duration.
Trevor Megill – No Devin Williams, no problem. Megill is proving himself to also be one of the
league’s best closers. He has elite K stuff supported by a monster four seam fastball and a
knuckle curve that has a 64.9(!!) whiff rate. I almost can’t imagine them removing him when
Williams returns…
Tobias Myers – Easily the Brewers best starter since the calendar flipped to June. In 7 starts
Myers went 5-1 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. I’m not sure he is quite this good, his 3.98
xERA is probably more accurate to his skill level rather than his current 3.13 ERA. Make no
mistake, Myers looks like a real rotation piece.
Colin Rea – Much like Myers, Rea had a great June. In 8 appearances (6 starts) Rea went 5-1
with a 3.77 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Unlike Myers, I do not think we should expect this to continue this way for too long. Great June for him either way, though. Big part of their success.
Jared Koenig – An incredible 13.2 IP as of June 1. Koenig was a man possessed posting 2
wins, 3 holds, 17/5 K/BB, a 0.66 ERA, & a 0.80 WHIP. He has been a premium bullpen arm all
season.
Aaron Civale – The Brewers acquired Civale right before the break. His results have been
interesting so far in 2 starts for the Brewers. Pirate fans saw him duel Paul Skenes on 7/11/24
where he looked very strong. In his only other start with the Brew Crew he matched up with the Dodgers and despite some wildness and the longball (3BB and 3 HRs in just 5 IP), he flashed some intriguing K stuff on the back of his cutter and sweeper. While he did not get as many whiffs against the Bucs, these two pitches looked strong there too. He will be one to monitor.
Minor League Check In
Eric Bitonti – A 3rd round selection in 2023, Bitonti has big power. One of the best hitters in the Complex League. Watch his swing and you see a little bit of Matt Olson. Long way to go to get there, but impressive 2024 so far.
Jesus Made – Made is a name to watch as he moves up the MiLB ladder. Just 17 and
dominating the Dominican Summer League.
Luke Adams – 2022 draftee, Luke Adams is in A+ and, for me, is one of the more underrated
prospects in the game. His swing is unconventional, but the power/speed/approach is really
compelling. Could be rounding into one of the premier low BA, high OBP, power/speed threats in the minors.
Cooper Pratt – Another 2023 draft pick. Playing as a 19 year old in A ball, Pratt made the
Future’s Game for the Brewers. He is a major helium prospect right now.
Josh Knoth – Selected with the 33rd overall pick in 2023, Knoth is in A ball at the tender age of 18. Some inconsistent results at times, but his strikeout potential is tantalizing.
K.C. Hunt – Hunt was originally drafted by the Pirates in 2022. He did not sign and instead went to play college ball at Mississippi St. After going undrafted in 2023, the Brewers signed him as UDFA. He had an interesting but not spectacular 2023. But in 2024 he is shoving. Across A and A+ he has a 2.12 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 91/14 K/BB, and a 6-1 record. Still at an age appropriate level, when he jumps to AA and this continues, his stock will absolutely take off.
St. Louis Cardinals
Lineup
Willson Contreras – Contreras missed a good amount of time but his 88 PAs before the break
were good on the back of a .385 wOBA and 153 wRC+. Batted ball data is still strong. He is a
very good player.
Brenden Donovan – By fWAR Donovan was the Cards best player in the period we are
examining. His triple slash of .318/.372/.450 is impressive. Not a basher, but he has definitely
ticked up in his game power ability. His versatility and new found pop make him a really
interesting player.
Alec Burleson – Preseason I was all in on Burleson being good. He proved me right before the
break. He jacked 12 homers, 8 doubles, stole 5 bases, slashed .292/.328/.569, with a .377
wOBA and 147 wRC+. His lack of defensive value will cap his fWAR, but he looks like a nice bat first player for the Cards.
Masyn Winn – Winn is establishing himself as a good young MLB caliber player. The production hasn’t been too great (.300 wOBA/95 wRC+) but he is laying the foundation of a good player for a 22 year old. Even with the offensive still developing, his defense is proving valuable on the back of an incredible arm, a league leading 14 DRS, impressive range, and a solid 2 OAA.
Michael Siani – Speaking of defense, Siani is that guy in center. He is top 5 in DRS and second
in OAA among all primary CFs. The bat leaves a lot to be desired, but the defense is
remarkable.
Nolan Arenado – Continuing our defense first theme, Arenado can still play a useful hot corner. While he is a diminished version of his former self, the defense and simple hit tool made him a valuable contributor since June 1 where he accumulated a 0.8 fWAR despite his production being well below career norms.
Pitching
Sonny Gray – A definite impact free agent signing for the Cards. Gray is on track to come close to matching his AL CY Young runner up effort from 2023. From June to the break alone Gray put up a 1.6 fWAR good enough for 3rd best in the National League in that time. He was a bit of a hard luck loser though pitching to a 2-4 record during this time. Make no mistakes, he is one of the best pitchers in the NL and an ace.
Miles Mikolas – Mikolas seems to be on track to turn in a traditionally solid Mikolas type
season. Nothing particularly flashy, but an innings eater with near plus control of a kitchen sink type of arsenal. I expect that his final line is eerily similar to 2023 when we look back at end of the season.
Ryan Helsley – Utterly dominant. Paces the MLB with 32 saves. Third best fWAR among all NL relief pitchers with a 1.3 mark.
Ryan Fernandez – An incredible June to All Star break with a 0.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 8
holds.
Kyle Gibson – The 5.15 ERA since June 1 is deceptive as Gibson’s underlying metrics show
him to be a much better pitcher than that in his 36.2 IP during that span. 2 very poor outings
skewed the end line. He is getting lots of groundballs and the sweeper has been very, very good again in 2024. Not an ace or even a top 3 SP, but Gibson is a steady back end rotation piece.
Minor League Check In
Tink Hence – Tink is having a great revival to his status as “elite.” Just a reminder that even
very good prospects, especially pitchers, do not always develop linearly.
Quinn Mathews – From A ball all the way to AA in 2024. Mathews is perhaps the biggest MiLB
breakout pitching prospect in the league. He is just getting his feet wet at AA now. If he
continues to roll there, he will begin cracking into top 50-75 overall kinda esteem.
Darlin Sandlin – Yet another Cardinals pitching prospect worth watching closely. In A+ right
now and looking like a certified guy. His fastball looks to be a premium “modern” metric pitch. I implore you to go find a video of him throwing. It just looks “different” when it leaves his hand.
Chase Davis – Davis stunk until May ended. Once it became June, things began to change. His
swing decision became better, his quality of contact became better, & his production became
better. On June 1 he had a .279 wOBA & 69 wRC+. From June 1 until July 19, he put up a .428
wOBA & 161 wRC+.
Chicago Cubs
Lineup
Ian Happ – Happ was very good before the Break. He went for 9 homers, 12 doubles, 5 swipes, and a .407 wOBA/167 wRC+. All in all he is having a strong year and is on pace for a career year.
Cody Bellinger – Bellinger was having a solid stretch of play hitting .281 with a .309 wOBA/100 wRC+ before succumbing to a broken left index finger.
Nico Hoerner – I came into this expecting to hate on Hoerner, but his season really is not that
far off of his 2023 performance. He currently has a .306 wOBA/98 wRC+. In 2023 he finished with a .322 wOBA/102 wRC+. It would not be surprising at all to see him finish about the same in 2024.
Christopher Morel – I have been talking about the “Christopher Morel Experience” all year and
we saw it yet again in June. The surface line is kind of gross, but he still produced 8 HR on a
.309 wOBA/100 wRC+ despite a .206/.300/.397 triple slash. His xStats paint a different picture and they are being dragged down by a well below normal BABIP.
Michael Busch – As of the Midsummer Classic break Busch was leading the Cubs in fWAR,
wOBA, & wRC+. He has some strikeout to his game (31% K on the season), but that is just the
type of player that he is. He’s got 12 homers on the season and is prone to hot/cold streaks. But the offseason acquisition looks like a success for the Cubbies.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – PCA has been rather underwhelming with the stick. The batted ball
stuff isn’t TOO gross with a just below MLB average EV and dead on average max EV. So
really there is a lot of room for growth here yet. His defense and speed are the carrying tools
right now. He leads the MLB in CF DRS, is top 10 in OAA, and is 99th percentile in sprint speed.
Seiya Suzuki – Seiya is a good offensive producer. His June marks of .378 wOBA/147 wRC+
were second best on the Cubs. Before the break he popped 8 homers, 8 doubles, and 3 triples. As long as he can stay on the field Suzuki should have a very good chance to replicate or surpass his 2023 fWAR.
Pitching
Justin Steele – Justin Steele has regained his 2023 form. His June to break line is stellar; 54 IP,
8 starts, 7 quality starts, 50/11 K/BB, 2-1 record, 1.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a 1.7 fWAR. He
has been the second best NL Starter since June 1 with that 1.7 fWAR performance. He is an
ace.
Shota Imanaga – Imanga has come back down to Earth after taking the league by storm early
this season. His performance has dropped back to that of a mid-rotation piece, but he still has 2 above average to plus offerings. The splitter, and sweeper both have xwOBA’s against below .260 which he deploys against LHH and RHH’s to keep them off of his four seam. What we appear to be seeing is the League adjusting to Imanaga after his meteoric debut. We will not get to see how he responds to that adjustment.
Jameson Taillon – Old pal Jameson has been very sharp in 2024. His main secondary
offerings have all been very sharp. And on top of that his control has been strong with a sub 5% BB rate on the season. Taillon always seems to be limited by the amount of innings he can stay on the mound for, but he is settling in as a reliable back end starter for the Cubs.
Luke Little – Luke Little is a mountain of a man. He’s got to look mighty imposing toeing the
rubber at 6’8”, 220+lbs. He throws gas and has a lethal sweeper that he slings at batters with
some of the league’s best extension (7.3 feet) that makes them play up even more. He
generates poor contact against and on the year batted balls against him have had a negative
launch angle. Relief pitchers are hard to predict, but he’s got the appearance and stuff to be a
good one for a long while.
Hector Neris – Neris put up 2 wins and 7 saves in 14 appearances since our last KYE. Those
results are nice, but they have come with some other issues attached. A very unpalatable BB
rate of 15.9% makes his performance incredibly unpredictable. Simply put, he is not a reliable
back end reliever.
Minor League Check In
Yohendrick Pinango – After romping through A+ ball, Pinango has slowed down in AA. Still a
player to watch for me. But there appears to be adjustments necessary.
Kevin Alcantara – Having a solid, but not flashy 2024 at AA so far. The tools are still loud and
the K% dipping down to 26.2% on the season. This may portend big things for The Jaguar in the second half.
Owen Caissie – Cassie is in AAA and playing well. He is almost ready to make a splash for the
big club. The K% is on the higher side, but he can get on base and has real big-boy power. He
sort of reminds me of Twins mega prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez. Caissie is underrated and
has a very high ceiling.
Matt Shaw – Taking care of his business at AA. 10 homers, 20 steals, getting on base, etc. He
should be up sometime in 2025. He is an elite prospect for me.
Cade Horton – Opened in AA and cruised. Made it to AAA and has not adjusted. Also shut
down for up to a month with a lat-strain.
Cincinnati Reds
Lineup
Elly De La Cruz – ELDC led the Reds with a 2.1 fWAR prior to the Summer hiatus. A strong
triple slash of .271/.351/.548, .381 wOBA, and 143 wRC+. He also went for 8 homers, 9
doubles, 5 triples, 27 runs scored, 19 RBI, and 14 steals. Without a doubt Elly is one of the most electric players in baseball. There is an absolute possibility that he can post a 30/70 season in 2024.
Matt McLain – McLain has been out all season so far. But reports have stated he will begin a
rehab assignment in mid-August.
Jonathan India – What a stretch of good play for India. From June to the break he went for a
.422 wOBA/177 wRC+, 5 homers, 16 doubles, 29 runs scored, 20 RBI, and a slash line of
.341/.421/.570. This production was good enough for the 6th best fWAR in the NL for this
period. The 1.9 fWAR here accounts for the bulk of his season fWAR of 2.4. This just goes to
show what a blazing hot month can do for a guy’s cumulative body of work.
Spencer Steer – Steer is a pretty underrated hitter. Some of that is due to him being a lousy
defender. Since his value is so reliant on the bat carrying the profile. The bat did its part before the break. .364 wOBA/131 wRC+. I wouldn’t have known without looking at it myself, but Steer may have the quietest path to 30/30 that I can ever recall.
Tyler Stephenson – Stephenson more or less doubled his season production numbers in the
month plus before the break. He is hitting the ball hard and the approach is really kind of sound. Not a standout, but definitely a starting caliber catcher.
Reece Hinds – How about this 7 game stretch to start a career; 28 PAs, 5 homers, 3 doubles, 1
triple, 7 runs, 11 RBI, 2 steals, .423/.464/1.192, and a 1.657 OPS. All coming on the back of a
.769 ISO, .673 wOBA, and 341 wRC+. The batted ball profile is crazy to support this sample. He went full Aristides Aquino. Don’t expect this to continue (obviously), but you need to pay
attention when someone comes out and does this and the batted ball data is also strong. Let’s see where this goes, I guess.
Pitching
Hunter Greene – Hunter Greene has taken another step forward in his progression toward ace
status. Somehow he has yet to turn 25 years old despite him being around for what feels like
forever. He has had a terrific 1st half and finds himself firmly in the top 10 pitchers in the NL by fWAR, top 6 in Ks, top 7 in ERA, & top 8 in WHIP. In 2024 he continued to refine his arsenal by adding a new offering; a splitter. While he primarily relies on his main two pitches (four seamer & slider) the development of the splitter might just take him to the rarified air of the “Ace” tier. Greene has always had weighty expectations placed on him largely due to draft and prospect pedigree and now he is beginning to live up to them. He has been a textbook case of pitching prospect development requiring patience from fans and organizations alike.
Andrew Abbott – Abbott is quietly having a very successful sophomore season. There seems
to be a lot less buzz around Abbott in 2024 and I’m not completely certain why that is. Perhaps it is because his rookie debut went so well that people tend to notice that kind of performance more from a new kid on the block. Either way, he is more or less repeating what he did last year just but with less strikeouts. He did see the K% tick back up over 20% since June began, but that came with an accompanying rise in BB%. To me, Abbott looks like he will at minimum be a good 4 or 5 SP. Given his relative early stages of his Major League career, there is definitely upside for more there too. It needs to be said that there is a gulf between his surface stats and underlying peripherals. His 3.50 xERA and 4.90 FIP lead me to believe the true talent level is really somewhere in between those two figures and not so much his current 3.39 ERA mark.
Frankie Montas/Carson Spiers – Montas and Spiers had solid, but unspectacular runs before
the break. Both hurling low 4.00’s ERAs with modest strikeout numbers. Neither one really
deserves a full blurb, but they were 2nd and 3rd in pitching fWAR for the Reds since June 1.
Alexis Diaz – Diaz is still struggling with command, but he did clean it up some in June. The
ERA was gold at 1.93 and he secured 8 saves in 14 appearances. We will need to monitor this
trend going forward. He may be getting back on track here.
Minor League Check In
Rhett Lowder – Lowder has made it up to AA and the surface stats are not very impressive.
The underlying numbers look much better. There is more work to be done, but he looks to be on the path of a premium pitching prospect.
Sammy Stafura – The Reds 2nd round pick in 2023, Stafura exploded onto the scene at the
Complex League this summer. He quickly earned a promotion to A ball and has mostly
continued this good performance there. A fun prospect that has a chance to average to above average tools across the board.
Jay Allen II – Allen II was an early breakout call for me and his production has kept up for the
most part. His hit tool has begun to regress however as his average is down to .226 on the
season. He is getting on base at a good clip (.384 OBP) and producing (.372 wOBA/129
wRC+).
Sal Stewart – Stewart is a really good hitting prospect. He has been playing 2B and 3B at A+.
Just 20 years old, but proving to be too advanced for the level at this point. His power has ticked up and if it continues trending this way, Stewart will be a slam dunk top 50-100 prospect sooner than later.
Until Next Time
I think that about does it for the June to All Star Break/First Half wrap up edition of Know
Your Enemy.
The second half in the NL Central is going to be must-see-TV. With the way teams are
grouped in the standings any imaginable outcome remains within the realm of
possibility. I know that I can’t wait to watch it unfold and then look back and see the who
& why with you all!
Steel City Pirates 