Starter Spotlight: These Bucs Don’t F-LYNN-ch

7-23-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Another day, another rematch from earlier this season in today’s game as the Pirates face veteran and long-time foe in Lance Lynn, who enters tonight’s game with some dismal numbers both on the season (4.39 ERA and -0.6 bWAR) and his in career against the Pirates (5.34 ERA across 123 innings).

Lynn’s return to his roots in St. Louis has likely not gone as well as he or the team had hoped. Somehow, the Cardinals have won 6 of his last 8 games started despite Lynn posting a 5.77 ERA over 39 innings pitched in that span.

Nearly 90% of his pitches are variations of a fastball (sinker/4-seam/cutter) ranging from 85-95 MPH. Among all his pitches, only the 4-seam has positive net value, jumping from being abysmal last year to being one of the best in MLB.

Just look at the company he’s in here! How is he able to produce good results with such an otherwise unspectacular looking offering?

He has seen his fastball’s oSLG drop from .520 last year to .394 this season and oBA go from .255 to .206. This is despite providing below average movement, spin rate and velocity.

So, why is it suddenly one of the best fastballs in baseball?

Why are hitters struggling against a pitch they know is coming?

Well, as you might expect with someone who has a LOT of bad numbers on his ledger, he’s gotten some luck.

His expected numbers on the pitch from last year are not so different this season. He’s even seen an increased in hard contact against the offering but the results have skewed considerably compared to last year. And, like with anything, that luck eventually runs out.

Expect the fastballs elevated and look to attack, attack, attack. This is a winnable game for the Bucs, especially with Paul Skenes on the bump for the Pirates.

Let’s Go Bucs!