7-31-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Pittsburgh looks for a potential sweep today in Houston but the pitching matchup is going to be a challenge as Bucs send out recent call-up Jake Woodford to go up against Astros ace, Framber Valdez.
Valdez is a workhorse for the Houston rotation over the past few seasons, compiling 509.2 innings since the start of 2022 with a 3.20 ERA and 492 strikeouts in that stretch.
While the crafty southpaw can rack up Ks, he excels at generating ground balls and avoiding barrels. As I mentioned in the preview yesterday, Valdez has the lowest barrel rate (4.5%) but also the highest ground ball rate (61.1%) among all qualified starting pitchers – and with one of the statistically best defenses in baseball behind him, it’s an excellent recipe for success.
Naturally, Valdez works low in the zone with his arsenal, which features a mid-90s sinker, a low-80s curve and a high-80s changeup. He’ll mix in a slider occasionally as well but mostly works the main three offerings as they make up ~95% of his overall pitches this season.
The curveball has been a real weapon for Valdez with an oBA of .149 and a Whiff rate of 39.8% while his changeup has been getting hit directly into the ground (-7 launch angle) and getting nearly identical whiffs at a 37.7% clip. On the other hand, his sinker gets a TON of contact – usually weak contact, granted – but has a higher likelihood to catch more of the plate than the other offerings and should be the one to target.
As the title suggests, the big thing against Valdez is to elevate. He makes his bag by getting hitters to roll over his pitches but with the recent trades for Bryan de la Cruz and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, we have added some critical bats who could potentially impact the game in a big way tonight.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 