8-4-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Chance today for a BIG series win after two VERY different games thus far. Pirates will send out rookie ace Paul Skenes against second year starter, Ryne Nelson.
Nelson had a rough first full MLB season in Arizona (5.31 ERA and 24 home runs in 144 innings pitched) but has shown improvement thus far this year, with a 4.53 ERA through 105.1 innings pitched and only 10 long balls in that span.
Nelson has posted some reverse splits this season with righties slashing .316/.357/.469 compared to a line of .246/.295/.440 from lefties.
Nobody has been hitting Nelson lately as he pitched 37.1 innings in July with a 2.41 ERA striking out 33 batters in that span with only 8 free passes.
Looking at his pitch mix, Nelson has a fastball-heavy approach: mid-90s 4-seam, and low-90s cutter with a low-80s changeup mainly against lefties and a mid-80s slider as his third pitch when facing righties.
The fastball has been his main strikeout pitch (59 of his 79 Ks this season) with a surprising 20.2% whiff rate on the offering and a .325 wOBA but the cutter (.371) and changeup (.399) have both been hit at a higher clip.
Nelson is going to fill up the strike zone. His 5.8% walk rate ranks 20th among all qualified starting pitchers. Bucs bats will want to attack Nelson early in counts as he has an OPS of .719 in 0-1 counts and .791 in 1-0 counts, and also a .750 OPS first time through the order (compared to .528 in the 2nd trip around).
Pick a spot. Pick a pitch. Jump on Nelson and get a series W.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 