8-4-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
Crushing loss today, and a tough series in general, but nobody said it would be easy. The reactionary nature of a pennant race can cause daily angina if you let it, and so many fans do, I need to pull one of these together on the regular just to remind myself that thinking is still going on out there.
Thank God, Buddha, Baby Jesus, whoever for each and every one of you.
Lets Go.
Question 1
Could you see the Pirates trading Hayes this offseason? – James Littleton
Yeah, I could see it, but the way they structured his contract, he actually got a pay decrease this year, from his peak pay of 10 million to the 7 million it’ll be through 2027, and on to his 8 million per it’ll be through 2029. That’s 37 million dollars from the beginning of 2025 through the end of 2029.
He has an option year too, but who cares, these are the figures that matter.
Now, it would certainly be selling low. You’d be selling a guy with a fairly public chronic back problem, who has struggled to turn his exit velocity into hits, let alone power with a stellar glove at a power position.
To a team that spends money, that’s nothing. Even if he winds up being something like a super utility on a team that uses him 2-3 times a week. To a team like Pittsburgh, unfortunately, 7 million needs to produce.
I think you’d be trading him low, and you’re probably lying to yourself if you think you can do better for the same money on the open market. In fact, Isiah Kiner-Falefa only makes a bit over 6 next year, 7 this year. Despite his offensive outburst this year and obvious defensive flexibility, very similar players.
So, long way of saying, I could see it, but I don’t think it’s all that likely, and more than that, I’m not sure it returns anything super helpful to the short term. I’d advise at least hoping he bounces back next year, it’s not like a long term 3B is pushing….yet.
Question 2
Any concerns with Holderman as of late? Would you consider possibly giving others like Kyle Nicolas go into his 7th inning role more often? – JGor493
Prophetic as my man asked this before today’s game. It also illustrates, this has been an issue so if you’re complaining today, it’s not just because you have a sore ass from this one outcome.
Yes, of course I’m concerned about Colin Holderman. Just as I was concerned about Aroldis Chapman, and David Bednar, and Carmen Mlodzinski and Kyle Nicolas and Dennis Santana when they started with and or ran smack dab into stretches where they looked like they had no chance of getting outs.
Patience hasn’t always been the answer either. Chapman needed to move down on the leverage chart, and once he showed he was finding something, boom, right back in the final innings. Holderman has the stuff, and for the vast majority of 2024 he was the only guy you could count on.
I say that to remind, it’s in there, even as a team in a playoff chase can’t afford to drop games just waiting for it to show up again.
They’re either going to have to pop him in blowout games, or in the middle up 2 or 3 until such a time as he shows he’s ok. They could fake IL him. They could option him. My guess is without him being him, this bullpen is short someone they really want to be part of the ramp to Bednar, something they don’t feel good being without.
He’s been bad, especially in his past 15 outings, but they’ve already started using Nicolas in his place, just yesterday when he went 2. That’s why he wasn’t available today.
Mlodzinski being out takes another option. Beeks is kinda not a fit when the matchup isn’t right. Chapman would have been 3 straight if he went today. Santana went multiples yesterday. Short outings the first two games set this up and made it feel more like a choice than it really was.
Stratton going a second inning might have been smart, but the last time he did that, he hurt himself and missed over a month, so I can see avoiding it as it’s not something he has ever done much of.
Bullpens morph all the time. So much so that you always feel like your fixing, tweaking, shuffling it. Any day of the week I can probably tell you 2 names I don’t want to see and I’m not exaggerating.
Fully healthy and humming, I love the bullpen, but they’ve struggled to get them all rowing in the same direction the entire season.
Short term, yeah, they need to minimize him and accentuate Nicolas. Longer term, I expect Colin Holderman to get back to the unhittable thing he looks like when he’s on.
Question 3
Our starters “seem” to be the best Pirate rotation I’ve seen (1970 I became a fan). How does the rotation compare statistically to those from the past? – Mike Teti
Sadly for so so many reasons, I’m not sure how the hell you’d begin to compare. Like, am I just taking the best 5 from every rotation I look at? Am I looking post deadline only? What if healthy scenarios?
Should I consider that starters in no way do what starters did 15-20, hell 40 years ago? Stats alone probably point back to one of those 70’s teams.
The best one I can remember is really the Pirates in 2013 with AJ Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Gerrit Cole, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton. I have to say, I feel better about Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, and Marco Gonzales.
I’m a little younger than you so my consciousness doesn’t really start until the mid 80’s. The Doug Drabek, John Smiley, Zane Smith, Bob Walk, Randy Tomlin rotation members make up a very top heavy group whereas today’s I honestly feel terrific about trotting 4 of the 6 out there at any given time.
Both of the “old” rotations would crush today in ERA. The league itself would. WHIP however, today has a huge edge, strikeouts too.
The game has changed too much for me to 1:1 compare, but this is the best one I’ve seen I can say that. I mean, the 1991 Staff had 3 guys who tossed more than 200 innings, and their 4th starter had 175. See my problem?
2024 Pirates starters have a 3.49 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and an opposition batting average of .246, now that wraps in everyone who started, so Woodford, Perez, Josh Fleming, you get what I’m saying. This is where those innings counts come into play, they have a lot more guys who’ve started than those older teams. In other words, if I just lineup up today’s 5 best vs yesterday’s, these numbers probably pop even more.
Regardless, let’s do this right.
2024 Pirates starters have a 3.49 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and an opposition AVG of .246
2013 Pirates starters have a 3.50 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and an opposition AVG of .243
1991 Pirates starters have a 3.27 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and an opposition AVG of .260
1979 Pirates starters have a 3.58 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and an opposition AVG of .257
1979 Bucco Starters hurled 1020.2 innings.
1991 Bucco Starters hurled 1005.0 innings.
2013 Bucco Starters hurled 925.0 innings.
2024 Bucco Starters hurled 600.1 innings…so far, I mean their story isn’t fully written yet. If they average 5.2 innings per the rest of the way that’s another 280-ish which will still leave them far shorter on the volume.
that’s about the best I can do Mike, but man, fun question to investigate and think about, thanks!
Question 4
With the likes of Jones, Skenes and possibly Ortiz needing to have their innings limited at some point during the next 6 or so weeks to have them for post season consideration (not trying to put the cart before the horse, but the odds are in our favor) what do we know right now about the guys in AAA that have either been battling back from injuries (Burrows) to newer Members of the 40 (Ashcraft) as examples – feel free to use others and is there any chance Bubba Chandler teases us much like they did Roansy a few years ago? – Jw Sanders
OK, gotta answer this one in stages. First, Ortiz is fine, he tossed 143.1 last year and currently has 84. I doubt they’re even thinking about him much.
Jones has just been “managed” my friend. When he comes back they won’t just open the throttle, but it’s going to feel like it. After an IL trip like that, the season totals tend to readjust and that’s on top of the fact he still has close to 60 to give before he even reaches where he was last year. Won’t take much to make that stretch and they planned to exceed that anyhow, now with the mid season rest he’ll be able to go more.
Skenes is at 108, in the preseason I was told they’d likely be comfortable with 175 this year and we’re probably fine there too especially since they’re still working on a 6 man rotation much of the time.
Now, more help from the minors? Sure. Burrows and Ashcraft have the best shot, both of which I’d imagine help in the pen if at all. A playoff race isn’t really a place for rookies unless you’re forced into it or already used them earlier in the season.
Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler are both rocketing up through the system, but I can’t see them popping their 40-man cherry this season, there’s just, well, let me put it this way, if they have enough injuries that we consider it, they’re probably out of it and you’d not do it in that case just because you’d be creating roster issues for no reason.
The Pirates managed Skenes early, Jones in the middle and Ortiz all season by pitching him out of the pen. Now it’s go time.
Question 5
Is Joey Bart now in the conversation for catcher of the future? And if he’s potentially the guy going forward, what does that mean for Rodriguez and Davis? – Nick Cammuso
I know you don’t tend to trust him, but Ben Cherington said as much Nick. He has 3 years of arbitration, I can’t see a world where he isn’t on this team next year. Just can’t.
As to Endy, well, as you know, he already works out elsewhere.
Could he catch next year, sure. Could Henry? Sure. I really mean it when I say this, if the Pirates are struggling to find a place to play 3 bats that are producing, I fail to see the problem.
If the Pirates plan to move Henry, well, they haven’t yet this year. Doesn’t mean they won’t, just means they haven’t.
I think we’ll head to camp with Bart as the incumbent. I for one hope that he looks like holding back the other two is near impossible.
Ben Cherington also said catching and batting right handed would be the last things Endy had to check off. Catching won’t happen this year. I’d look at him as a recovering starting pitcher in a way, until he can handle the volume of throws behind the dish he could very well be stuck at 1B or DH and that could stretch into the season a bit, even if only a little bit.
Question 6
With the emergence of Bart behind the plate, could see see this for 2025:
C: Bart / Delay
1B: Endy
OF: Davis
Utilizes Henry’s arm and protects Endy’s surgically repaired arm. – Ed Fleming
Similar to what Nick asked really. Again, I think Endy has not only some recovery to do, but some proving himself too. Let’s not forget, in AAA last year he hit .268 and in the Bigs he only managed .220. I love the kid, think he’s going to be a hell of a player, but this isn’t a team that can afford to pretend Endy coming back is like Carlos Correa coming off the IL. He’s a kid we were excited about, but also a kid who has work to do before we pretend he’s an upgrade over Rowdy/Joe/Davis/Bart, you feel me?
As for Delay, I can’t see them carrying 4 catchers on their 40-man unless they decide one of them isn’t one anymore.
Question 7
Fans talk, but are the Pirates having any serious discussions about moving Hayes to another position? – Voice from the Graves
Not that I’ve heard. I think he could do it I just don’t think they’re going to want to create a hole where there isn’t one. I also get the impression, they don’t think they’re seeing the Ke’Bryan Hayes we’ll see next year. I’m equally sure they thought he’d look better this season.
As I said to James in the first question, I think we’re just in for another season minimally here because if he isn’t a starter, I’m not sure which position we think he’s hitting well enough to man. If it’s Short stop, well, they’d still have to find a place for Cruz, and I’m not anxious to ask him to throw farther.
So, no, I don’t think anything serious.
Question 8
Player comps from the last Pirates playoff team to the current team? Is Reynolds a Neil Walker type but better? Who is the next Josh Harrison? Is Skenes the new Cole? Just thought it would be fun to compare and look back. – Patrick Bradford-Kenney
Hmmm
I don’t think this team is where that one was, not yet.
Harrison would be Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Walker maybe Cruz
Cutch probably lines up with Reynolds the best.
Yeah, I’m struggling here, it’s a different team, much stronger on the mound than the field and despite having a good staff, it’s really hard to compare anyone to Skenes or Jones, I guess I’d say Keller is your AJ.
Hard one for me. I guess I just don’t see them as comparable entirely. I’d probably have better luck if I went with 2012 or even 2011 to line it up better, but I just don’t think it works well. The outfield was a strength, our outfield is a weakness, even now.
There are a lot of kids coming still. Cook and Yorke, Ashcraft, Burrows, Harrington, Chandler, Peguero still could factor in.
Let me revisit this next year. Hold me to it ok?
Question 9
Is there a chance that Henry starts seeing reps at 1B given the emergence of Bart. Any chance they extend Bart?
How many innings do you think Skenes, Jones and Falter are stretched to by the end of the season? Season total.- Dave Thomas
I think I covered the catching stuff, but one part of this I think I have to cover. Joey Bart has 3 years of arbitration. He’ll be dirt cheap next year. There’s no reason to even consider extending him, yet.
Falter threw 130.2 innings in 2023, he has 95 now, I’d bet they had 150 targeted, providing they actually thought we’d still be wanting to use him at this point in the season.
Skenes could probably hit 175, or more depending on how they’ve evaluated. Ben Cherington already mentioned that the club is changing how they evaluate his use moving forward.
Steel City Pirates 