8-5-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X
The race for October continues and, for the Pittsburgh Pirates, much like the past week, they have an opponent ahead of them in the race awaiting them for six games over the next nine days, this time in the form of the San Diego Padres.
The Pirates are coming off of a series loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, one many fans, and probably the team, feel they should have won, seeing as the Pirates led late in both losses to the Snakes in that series.
Nevertheless, in a competitive wild card race, the Pirates have to have a short memory and can erase the stench of two series losses to Arizona in a week’s time if they can find a way to best the Padres.
This series will be the first meeting between the teams in 2024, with the Padres sitting four games ahead of Pittsburgh at the time of writing for the final wild card spot. The Pirates are 2-3 versus San Diego in their past five matchups.
As for the past 10 games overall, the Pirates have been a .500 team at 5-5, while the Padres, much like Arizona, have been red hot, coming into this series as winners of eight of their past 10 games, including a no-hit performance from ace Dylan Cease against the Nationals two weeks ago.
Let’s discuss what you should see and expect from Pirates versus Padres over the next three days.
8/5
Padres – Dylan Cease (R) –11-8, 136.2 IP, 3.42 ERA, 174 Ks/43 walks, 0.99 WHIP
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L) – 5-7, 95.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 64 Ks/28 walks, 1.19 WHIP
8/6
Padres – Michael King (R) –9-6 124.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 144 Ks/45 walks, 1.16 WHIP
Pirates – Marco Gonzales (L) – 1-1, 29.0 IP, 3.72 ERA, 20 Ks/9 walks, 1.52 WHIP
8/7
Padres – Randy Vasquez (R) – 3-6, 76.0 IP, 4.62 ERA, 50 Ks/21 walks, 1.53 WHIP
Pirates – Luis Ortiz (R) – 5-2, 84.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 65 Ks/27 walks, 1.18 WHIP
Padres: Manny Machado
The Padres no doubt have star power, and look no further than third baseman Manny Machado, who despite a slow April and May, has been electric for the Padres over the past month.
Machado has a .282/.341/.551/.892 slash with five homers and 11 runs batted in over the past 30 days, including six doubles, so half of his hits have come in the form of extra bases.
Machado has been impressive on the road this season as well, posting a .759 OPS, so he’ll be an anchor for the Padres offense going into this series on a hot streak.
Pirates: Oneil Cruz
Even considering the dreadful series Oneil Cruz had in Houston, he’s been on a tear at the plate the past month.
Cruz has an .897 OPS over the past 30 days and is batting .286 over the past seven, plating 17 over the past month. With newly acquired Bryan De La Cruz and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cruz also should see more opportunities to score on the base paths.
This will also be Cruz’s first game versus San Diego, so surely he’ll want to make a strong impression in his debut games versus the Friars.
Padres: Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth has been a Swiss Army knife for the Padres ever since he arrived, and now at first base, he’s been a defensive commodity for sure, but post All-Star break, his bat can’t say the same.
Cronenworth has a .204/.295/.315/.610 slash with just one home run post All-Star, and he’s second on the Padres in strikeouts in that time as well with 15, trailing Jackson Merrill.
Cronenworth is a left-handed hitter as well, and with the Pirates throwing Falter and Gonzales, this may not be the “get right” series for Cronenworth that he needs.
Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes
Much like Cronenworth, the post All-Star performance for Ke’Bryan Hayes is not where he, or well the team, wants it to be at all.
Hayes is second on the team in at-bats since the Pirates left the All-Star break, posting a .212/.255/.212/.466 slash with zero extra-base hits in that time.
Hayes struggles at the plate have been well documented all season, but Pirates fans hope he can find a resurgence from the second half we saw last year before season’s end.
Key Injuries
Padres:
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been sidelined for quite awhile, but now on the 10-day IL, it appears he may make his return sometime next week, maybe even against Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove, Nolan Watson, Wandy Peralta and Stephen Kolek are all sidelined on the pitching side of things for San Diego, with all of them expected back at some point in August, so the Padres, over the next few weeks, should be getting much healthier.
Pirates:
Andrew McCutchen is day-to-day after an injury on Saturday but will likely be available for this series.
Joshua Palacios and Nick Gonzales are both on the 10-day IL.
Jared Jones has been throwing bullpen sessions as his rehab from a grade 2 lat strain continues. He’s expected to return sometime this month for the Pirates.
Team Notes
One thing is for certain, both of these teams can pitch, and as I usually say in my series previews, I think pitching will be the difference in this series.
Pittsburgh doesn’t have their lethal trio they usually would heading into this one, but Gonzales, Falter and Ortiz are more than manageable and can keep the Pirates in these games as they have all year.
Meanwhile, the Pirates get Dylan Cease shortly after a no-hit performance, and with a newly fortified bullpen as a result of the deadline, the Padres become formidable on the pitching side just about every day.
This is an important series for both squads, seeing as the Pirates can gain ground on San Diego while the Padres can try to distance themselves from the pack.
Either way, these teams will likely be in the conversation come September and the waning weeks of the season, so strap in for another competitive series that will no doubt feature some good baseball.
Steel City Pirates 