Series Preview: Pirates (56-58) at Dodgers (66-49)

8-9-24 – By Drew Cagle – @cagles_bagels on X

The Pirates’ post-All Star break gauntlet rolls on, and Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles is the next stop. Following a homestand that saw the club drop five of six against fellow wild card competitors Arizona and San Diego, this series grows in importance. LA enters the weekend off of a series loss to the National League-leading Phillies, after which there is increased concern in DodgerLand about the team’s World Series chances, namely due to their inconsistency in the bullpen.

8/9
Pirates –  Mitch Keller (R) – 10-5, 132.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 118 Ks/36 walks, 1.19 WHIP
Dodgers – Jack Flaherty (R) – 8-5, 112.2 IP, 2.80 ERA, 140 Ks/20 walks, 0.96 WHIP

8/10
Pirates –  Paul Skenes (R) – 6-1, 86.0 IP, 1.99 ERA, 107 Ks/19 walks, 0.94 WHIP
Dodgers – River Ryan (R) – 1-0, 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 14 Ks/9 walks, 1.28 WHIP

8/11
Pirates –  Bailey Falter (L) – 5-7, 97.2 IP, 3.87 ERA, 65 Ks/28 walks, 1.19 WHIP
Dodgers – Tyler Glasnow (R) – 9-6, 127.0 ERA, 3.54 ERA, 164 Ks/34 walks, 0.95

Pirates: Bryan Reynolds

An 0-for-4 showing on Tuesday night against the Padres served as nothing more than a speed bump for the 29-year old outfielder. He followed that up with two hits and a pair of RBIs on Wednesday, and another hit in Thursday’s contest.

Dating back to July 13th in Chicago, Reynolds is hitting .441, to pair with a gaudy 1.095 OPS, though he’s only hit one home run over the stretch. Look for him to set the tone for a Pirates team that is in desperate need of a series win.

Dodgers: Teoscar Hernandez

Despite the bottom of Los Angeles’ order being inconsistent at the plate throughout the season, Hernandez has been a steady force in the middle of the lineup. He’s picked up a hit in each of his last six games, in addition to 3 home runs and 5 RBIs in that time.

The first few months of the season were fairly ho-hum for the two-time All-Star, with his average never reaching above .260 for a month. In July, he began to heat up with the weather, hitting .301 with an .848 OPS.

His personal splits are also good indictator of how the Dodgers are playing as a team. In LA’s wins, he’s put up a .311 average, while in losses it’s plummeted to .209.

Pirates: Connor Joe
After losing his everyday role at first base to Rowdy Tellez earlier this summer, Joe’s bat hasn’t kept up enough for him to carve out a starting role. Over his last 13 games, the 31-year old is hitting just .194, with only 2 extra base hits and a single walk drawn. His defense has remained solid at first base, but it hasn’t been enough to overshadow his struggles at the plate.

Seeing that LA is starting three righties in the series, it’s unlikely that Joe receives a plethora of playing time, but his services may be required as a pinch-hitter for Tellez should the Dodgers play matchups with a left-handed reliever.

Dodgers: Andy Pages
A hot start to the 2024 season from the 23-year old rookie Pages had Los Angeles brass looking like geniuses for having him almost skip Triple-A entirely (only 16 games played with Oklahoma City before his MLB callup). After hitting .286 with an .810 OPS over his first 24 games this season, his bat has cooled off.

Since May 14th, his average has dropped to a .232 clip, including a .202 mark over his last 24 games. In addition to his struggles at the plate, his fielding has been below-average, with some insiders calling for the Dodgers to replace him for a postseason run. As a hitter with a higher-than average strikeout rate, look for Pirates pitching to go after the outfielder at the plate.

Key Injuries

Pirates:

Both Jared Jones (lat) and Joshua Palacios (hamstring) began rehab assignments at Triple-A Indianapolis on Thursday.

Nick Gonzales (groin) and Colin Holderman (wrist) are both on the IL.

Dodgers:
2-time All-Star Walker Buehler (hip) made a rehab start on Thursday in Triple-A.

Star infielder Mookie Betts (hand) is nearing a return, but shouldn’t be back for this series.

Reliever Brusdar Graterol (hamstring) is on the IL, with what could potentially be a season-ending injury.

LA has dealt with a bevy of injuries to other players, including Tommy Edman (wrist), Max Muncy (oblique), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (triceps), who will all look to come back in the next few weeks.

Things to Look For

The key to the series for me is the Pirates’ bats against the Dodgers’ starting pitching. Facing a trio of quality arms in Flaherty, Ryan, and Glasnow means it won’t be easy, but it’s necessary. That’s because the real weakness of this Dodgers team is their bullpen.

Getting length from starting pitching hasn’t been the Dodgers’ thing as of late. Since July 1st, they’ve only had a starting pitcher go six innings five different times. In that same span, only one pitcher has gone at least seven innings. This is a starting staff that the Bucs need to work counts against.

For the Pirates, I’m looking for a bounce-back series from Bryan De La Cruz. He has yet to make a significant impact to the team’s offense, unlike fellow trade acquisition Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

Pittsburgh has their top two arms going in this series (Keller and Skenes), and are as formidable as they come with those two on the mound. But don’t count out young right-hander River Ryan for the Dodgers. He’s off to a solid start over his first three big-league outings against the Giants, Astros, and Athletics. I’m not taking Saturday’s pitching matchup for granted, even though the Pirates have the clear advantage.

You don’t need me to tell you how important it is for the Pirates to win this series after what went wrong on the last homestand. If they’re going to climb out of the hole they’ve dug themselves in the standings, it’ll have to start this weekend in Southern California.