Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Outside Looking In

8-12-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

When the Pirates started falling apart, it all fell apart. It’s not like we thought the team was a hop skip and jump from the World Series, but it’s fair to say we had some reason to expect the team to drag out where this was headed a bit longer.

I thought they’d be in it longer than this to be sure, but this team can’t survive guys they count on to close things out collapsing. They have starting pitching, but when it doesn’t provide to the same level, backed by a bullpen that has more holes than answers.

Lets do this!

1. Fire Fill in the Blank!

Ben Cherington and Derek Shelton aren’t getting fired.

Grab a pillow, yell into it. Get past it or don’t.

I’m not guessing here, and neither are all the journalists who will inevitably (some already have) write about how outraged you should be, or how angry you should be, they all know too. And we fans, we don’t need help being mad, but pretending there’s some chance the coach you so vocally hate and the GM you blame for being slow if nothing else might get fired will if nothing else bring eyeballs.

Now, they’ll write it up with all due righteous indignation. They might even give you some spin that Bob Nutting is dissatisfied. But they all know what this is.

I’m just not going to pretend with you. Again, they aren’t getting fired. If it makes you feel better to spend time saying they should, have at it. I could certainly make a case, the problem is, I can’t dismiss the role Bob Nutting plays in this, nor can I pretend that everyone in team management was blissfully unaware of what the word competitive would mean to fans.

I’ve already seen where they are now compared to 2019 by way of supposing the team might feel compelled to “rebuild” again. LOL

Guys, no.

You don’t have to buy what I’m saying here, but watch the space as we proceed. Take note of all the things I said would be written and ultimately watch both gentlemen return unscathed in 2025. When they do, it won’t be because they pulled some 11th hour sales job on the bumbling owner, it’ll be because it was always going to be.

If you want someone moved on from that actually has a chance, Andy Haines has to be near top of the plausibility list. I’d also like to see them bring in a dedicated fielding coordinator and there’s a real shot that Don Kelly gets a shot at managing somewhere.

It may be inconvenient, but at some point of all the evil Mr. Burnes stuff you think Nutting is doing, maybe it’s time you accept that Bob Nutting knows what he’s asking his baseball ops side to do, and the constraints he hands them too. A used car lot owner who’s selling lemons doesn’t often fire the salesman for struggling to sell them.

You know, unless he actually buys a few good cars and they can’t manage to sell those either.

That scenario isn’t this year. Even if it kinda resembled it for a while.

We want accountability, unfortunately where it should really be applied is on the only person who can dish it out, and yeah, he’s staying too.

2. There’s Only One Way to Know if a Guy Has an MLB Bat

You guessed it, the only way to know is to play in MLB.

I recently put forward the idea that the Pirates should probably consider getting another look at Henry Davis and predictably as ever it was met with a chorus of “he can’t hit in MLB”.

People, that may very well wind up being true, but you don’t make that call this early on a 1:1.

What he’s done at this level isn’t good, there’s no denying that, but this also isn’t Jake Lamb yet. This isn’t a guy who’s had 10 shots after killing it in AAA only to prove time and again he isn’t capable.

He’s now had 207 at bats in AAA this year, he’s hitting .301, with 13 doubles and 12 dingers. he’s still struck out near a 25% clip, but he’s hitting balls all over the field now and taking more walks.

It’s not a tragedy if they ultimately decide he just needs to finish the season out down there, but the point is, you can’t ever know what a guy can do at this level until you’ve seen it.

They’re nowhere near a decision that renders Henry an afterthought. A team that thinks they need his bat to get where they want to go probably won’t miss the opportunity to see what he can do to end this season.

3. With No Additions… an Sneak Peek at 2025

If the Pirates don’t add anything, and they will, I always like to look at what I believe the 26-man roster might look like coming out of Spring.

I might not pick all the players you think have a shot, but I bet this’ll be a bit closer than you believe.

Rotation:
Paul Skenes
Mitch Keller
Jared Jones
Bailey Falter
Braxton Ashcraft

Bullpen:
Carmen Mlodzinski
Kyle Nicolas
David Bednar
Colin Holderman
Luis Ortiz
Mike Burrows
Domingo German
Hunter Stratton

Position Players:
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan De La Cruz
Ke’Bryan Hayes
Connor Joe
Nick Gonzales
Joey Bart
Endy Rodriguez
Henry Davis
Billy Cook
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Oneil Cruz
Jack Suwinski
Nick Yorke

I make no claim this is everything they’ll do, this is just the mix of players we’ll be asking them to bolt onto. As the offseason approaches and proceeds, this is the baseline I’ll work with to talk about needs, and options.

It always starts somewhere, and heading into next year, this is where it starts.

4. A Still Achievable Goal

This team has hit unpaved road right when the race was supposed to really get going. I won’t go so far as to say they should stop trying to reach the playoffs, and yes, that includes their GM continuing to say that’s the aim, but functionally, there’s a lot to climb over at this point, and I’m not sure they have a big enough ladder.

What they can do though, is surpass the .500 mark for the first time since 2018. A necessary milestone and one I truly believe is still within reach.

The schedule is going to loosen up after this Padres series. There is no such thing as an easy series, but they’ll have a chance to play teams a lot closer to their makeup than the Dodgers, Diamondbacks or Padres have shown themselves to be.

56-61, they’re under water, but they have a shot, just like they did before the All Star Break.

It isn’t what fans wanted. It’s not what the players wanted. But it is an important step that every young team has to try to eclipse on their way to getting into the dance.

Make every series a “playoff series” and ultimately accomplish this goal while learning how to win.

5. Hard Decisions

The Pirates have a lot to consider this offseason. Harken back to number 3 in today’s piece and I think it’s pretty clear that’s not a roster you head into a season with expecting a playoff run from largely the same players failing now.

Sure, some of them will improve over the offseason, but the Bucs have to decide some things and I’m going to list a few that I can’t stop thinking about.

Andrew McCutchen – I don’t know if he’ll retire or return in 2025. I do know if he wants to play, Bob Nutting will not only authorize giving him another 5 million, he’ll demand it. I also don’t think Andrew can be expected to even DH for 120 games. This is a potentially poor situation for everyone, but you could do worse than having a guy like Andrew on your bench for pinch hitting and spot starts at DH, in fact, they’re doing worse than that right now.

First Base – I know Endy Rodriguez has played there, and I’m sure he’s expected to again, but that’s a lot of trust to place on a guy returning from missing an entire season due to injury who didn’t exactly light AAA or MLB on fire to begin with. Connor Joe has also proven he’s easily overexposed, so chances are this isn’t enough to enter a season with. I’m not sure how they’ll strike this balance. The First Base Free agent market isn’t spectacular again and even if he’d want to return I’m not sure Rowdy Tellez did enough of what you’d want him to do.

A Veteran Starter – I could see this both ways. Part of me thinks they have enough and Mitch Keller can be the veteran, but a bigger part of me thinks they might need one. I also have concerns about Bailey Falter, he’s very razor’s edge, just one small crack in what he does and provided this team has too much faith in him they could find themselves forced into trusting a rookie as opposed to wanting to trust one.

David Bednar – The Pirates brought in a contingency plan in the form of Aroldis Chapman and it still didn’t insulate him enough. I’ve been told, and since seen it reported by Dejan Kovacevic that had David not been injured this Spring he’d have likely been extended. If so, and I believe it to be, this team may have just dodged a bullet and they’d be wise to not head right back into that same direction given what they’ve just watched. Do they ride his arbitration, deal him or stick with their original plan? I’m not sure how you head into a season pretending he’s just the same old David though.

There are plenty more, but why use all my offseason material here, after all, we still have a decent amount of baseball.