The Pirates Need to Accept what David Bednar is Showing Them

8-17-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The hero local kid. An angle just about every fanbase can’t get enough of and one we’ve had several times over the years. Even if it’s an adopted son like Joey Bart who’s family has ties to the area or Isiah Kiner-Falefa who has a distant relation to Ralph Kiner who played here and arguably had more fame in New York.

Man, it’s emotional for a fan base when their story arc changes in either direction.

I’ve lived the vast majority of my life here in Western Pennsylvania, and I’m as proud as anyone. Neil Walker will always hold a special place in my heart and having personal connections to not only where he grew up, but where he played is special. Hell, my brother in law won a state championship with him in high school.

So seeing him traded for one of the worst Pirates starting pitchers in the last decade hurt.

Even as the Pirates were ultimately proven right, he really was near the end, the back was a near constant problem, he was never going to evolve into a switch hitter you feared from both sides of the plate.

I know all that, and it still hurt.

This version of the Pirates needs to be the adult in the room and see a lot of this same stuff with David Bednar.

For all the reasons I just mentioned up there talking about Walker, David has become a lot more than a baseball player to Pirates fans and he tirelessly works in the community. Again, my nephew has been to probably 5 camps with David for baseball. He’s visited their class probably 2 or 3 times, and met with them on the field at PNC after securing a bank of tickets for youth baseball players.

The Pirates reportedly planned to extend David Bednar this Spring before he developed the injury that he’d start the season nursing and their self imposed preference to not deal with contractual concerns during an injury may have just prevented the team from making a mistake.

Let me be very clear.

I’ve been told, and it’s since been reported by real journalists, the Bucs were poised to extend David. None that I’ve heard have a feel for how long of an extension we’re talking here, so let’s not act like they were about to sign him through 2037 or something, but he made 4.5 million dollars in his Arbitration 1 season, this season.

Next year he’ll be in Arbitration 2. This is a refresher because I’ve been told recently that I assume everyone understands all this stuff. If you already know, skip ahead to the asterisks.

Most players have 3 years of arbitration eligibility. There are some who get 4, I could explain why you might have 4 but it turns into a whole other family tree of team control that for now, it’s easier to just say most players have 3.

So the Pirates “have team control” of David, through 2026, via this process. Meaning the Pirates have to “tender” an offer, basically, say they want him and will go to an independent arbiter for the contract negotiation.

Both team and player enter knowing roughly what this contract will be. Both submit a number, some teams negotiate that a bit outside of the legal process, the Pirates are a “1st Offer” team. Their policy is if both sides don’t agree on the first offer it goes to arbitration. They allowed this to sour their relationship with Bryan Reynolds along the path to his contract extension, in fact it actually caused them to very technically extend Bryan before the one he’s playing under currently.

Arbitration is a process where the player thinks they’re worth more than the team or in their mind “the market”. During this process, the team, or their arbitration representative, well, they hammer the player for all the things they are and aren’t, by way of statistic comparisons and merciless evaluation or projections of regression.

Nobody likes it.

***

Ok, welcome back to those of you who didn’t need, or want an arbitration/team control refresher.

I went through all that to say, the reason you’d want to extend Bednar in my mind was really to avoid this arbitration process. I was never a proponent of extending him beyond his 2 remaining years of team control unless it was tacking on a year. I just don’t want tied to a closer for that long, especially one who didn’t emerge as some fresh faced kid with a 15 year career in front of him.

This season I’m hoping, scared the Pirates out of this train of thought.

No, I’m not talking about DFAing him, not now. I’m not even talking about trying to trade him, in fact I’m tired of this team trading low on guys.

I’m just saying, this regression could be injury related, but the numbers don’t lead me to believe that’s the case. I know injury and rustiness probably were issues at the beginning of the season, but not now. Injured people don’t usually have an increase in 4-seam fastball velocity over their career norms.

The effectiveness of his 4-seam fastball, man, that has been what’s wrong with David Bednar this year. Hitters are finding the barrel 11% of their swings.

5 blown saves versus 21 saves, and it’s felt worse than that if only because of how many times he whittled away a 2 or 3 run lead before finally sealing the deal.

8 homeruns to only 188 batters faced is alarming at best.

What I’m asking for here, is that the Pirates put all of the “Renegade”, hometown hero, great in the clubhouse stuff aside and prioritize playing and winning baseball games.

Starting now.

• Accept that right now at the very least, this isn’t an MLB closer, and you happen to employ one of the best to ever do it. Use that flexibility you paid for and decided to keep at the deadline before this collapse.
• Don’t let one player’s personal struggle continue to play out at the end of a ball game.
• If health is at all a concern, again, don’t allow one player’s personal struggle to continue to play out when the game is on the line.

Bob Nutting doesn’t involve himself in many things on the baseball side. He authorizes the budget and lets the GM make the calls on how to spend the money, until recently anyway.

Recently he’s imposed his wishes on the GM.

Bob is the reason Andrew McCutchen is back, both times. I’m not sure it makes the most baseball sense based on what this team needs, but it sure does feel warm and fuzzy.

What I fear is Nutting stepping in here and wanting to keep David Bednar the “attraction” even as he isn’t David Bednar the “All Star Closer” anymore.

I don’t “hate” David, I’m certainly not claiming he is incapable of rebounding next year, I’m simply saying, the lower back issues and various associated muscle strains in the region probably aren’t going to just stop and as popular as the hometown kid is, an ERA of almost 6.00 as an MLB closer sure isn’t going to maintain that popularity no matter how many camps he hosts.

This team needs to start focusing on ensuring they have great players, and yes, it needs to start outweighing great guys. It’s terrific when you get both, it’s also childish and incompetent to insist on it.

I could make an argument that no team should extend a closer, I think the stats will back me up for how often they fall off inexplicitly.

A team like this, that is building itself as a pitching development system, or at least that’s what they’re drafting, well they need to almost always be replacing roles like this with freshly cultivated new ones.

Carmen Mlodzinski, Kyle Nicolas, those are the types of arms. Overflow starters who can’t crack the rotation but have huge arms. Quick flow relievers who come out of nowhere and produce need to be a thing with this org. If they do this right, you get 3-4 year peaks of guys and move on…

…even the ones who grew up here.

I think they’ll tender him, I bet he doesn’t get a raise in Arb 2, but if I’m them, or hell just the fan that I am, I truly hope they tread lightly here. My guess is if they just run through arbitration, this whole thing will sort itself out. He’ll earn more over the next two years if he earns it and let’s be real, he wants to be a Pirate about as bad as any fan wants to overlook his warts to keep him one. Free agency probably shouldn’t be scary.

If it’s interesting to both, that probably means a couple good things right?

It would mean David had 2 good years. And I’d have to imagine it would mean the Pirates had two good years in which they needed to keep him at both deadlines.

That’s a very very hopeful look forward. A future that largely I believe rests on the arm, and lower back I suppose of David Bednar.

No matter what, this season has shown me and I hope management that they can at least afford to just let this ride out. Don’t try to force this into a smart decision, let baseball tell you that.