Starter Spotlight: Tie One On Taillon

8-25-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

A rematch from earlier this season awaits the Pirates today with Mitch Keller facing off once more against former teammate, Jameson Taillon. 

In his second season in Chicago, Taillon has an even 8-8 record, 3.77 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 126.2 innings pitched. That said, his career line against the Pirates is much worse as he holds a 6.19 ERA in 16 innings across 3 starts, including his May 19th outing where he lasted just 4.2 innings, allowing 3 runs off 6 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts.

Taillon’s big thing has always been limiting walks dating back to his time with the Pirates, and he has continued that trend with a 5% walk rate, the 10th best rate among starting pitchers with at least 120 innings this year.

Outside of throwing strikes consistently, there isn’t a ton of green flags in Taillon’s profile. The velocity has ticked down considerably following two Tommy John surgeries as he previously touched 97-98 with the heat and now barely clips 95.

Additionally, his big curve – formerly a HUGE weapon for the 6’5 former 2nd overall pick – becomes less deceptive with less difference in velocity between the heater and breaking ball.

While JT has an eclectic arsenal of pitches – including a 4-seam/sinker combo in the low-90s, a high-80s cutter, low-80s curve and infrequent mid-80s changeup – his best pitch by results has been his sweeper, generating an oBA of just .193, woBA of .220 and whiff rate of 34.9% – all best among his offerings.

In contrast, his remaining pitches have been much ordinary – especially his 4-seamer, which has run flat and resulted in an inordinate amount of hard contact with opposing hitters posting an .853 OPS against the heater.

He’s struggled more in away games (4.65 ERA in 62 innings) than home ones (2.92 ERA through 64.2 frames) and also has had difficulties against left-handed hitters – .776 OPS compared to .626 for righties.

Attack the high heat and lay off the sweeping breaking ball. Expect strikes and be ready to crush them.

Let’s Go Bucs!