8-30-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
Not good enough.
That’s really been the story of 2024. Name an area of this team, and you’ll always land on that very small phrase.
And yet, I look at this roster and I find precious few places where I foresee them upgrading for myriad reasons.
Now, it makes no sense, and yet when I get done going through this, I’m not sure how you could disagree. Not good enough probably doesn’t equal returning 90% of the roster in most cases, but I believe that’s exactly what we’ll see play out here in Pittsburgh.
Think about it like this.
The outfield is now probably pretty set. Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Bryan De La Cruz are all going to be back. Jack Suwinski is very likely to get another look, even if just as a platoon and backup center fielder option.
The infield again, smart or not, is likely built primarily from Ke’Bryan Hayes, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Gonzales and you have to imagine Endy Rodriguez. Connor Joe could be in the mix for either of these first two spots, but he isn’t a guaranteed tender recipient and probably shouldn’t be.
Catcher should be easy right? You have Joey Bart, Henry Davis and Endy at some point will factor in potentially. Hard to see them going out to get another you’d guess.
Starting rotation maybe? Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Mike Burrows and eventually Johan Oviedo should all at least have a shot at having a role. Some could even find their way to the bullpen.
The bullpen, now here you have some holes. David Bednar will in all likelihood be tendered, but he might not actually be automatically the closer. Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Dauri Moreta (at some point), Dennis Santana has a couple years of arbitration and he’s done well. Kyle Nicolas for the most part has had a very positive season.
It’s pretty clear there is room to improve this pen, and I have no doubt they will. It’s also not an empty closet filled with cobwebs.
I go through all of this and I see only a few real spots for free agent or trade targets. Unless you want to move on from any of the guys I listed off.
First base, Designated hitter, Bullpen arms, specifically left handed back end minimally although I think they could go get 2 or 3 arms and have it make sense.
Designated hitter shouldn’t be filled solely by Andrew McCutchen next season if you ask me, but he’s a very likely player to be brought back. This is a distinctive area for improvement opportunity to me. Bring Cutch back as a bench bat as opposed to every day starting DH. It would give them room for some improvement on their bench for starters. Provide them with room to give other players at bats and rest too, but this is more of a role change and opportunity to potentially target someone with even more of a track record.
First Base, I suppose you can either go get a real free agent or trade for one. Could probably decide to just let it ride with Endy and Joe, but it feels like if you don’t upgrade big right here at this position, well, it seems to me that would be missing a very big opportunity to improve this lineup. At the very least you have to replace Rowdy Tellez production if not double it. I’m not sure Endy and Joe do that, at least not in the year of our Lord 2025.
This whole Oneil Cruz shakeup creates waves too. Cruz being a center fielder should still be a question, but Cruz as an every single day bat, that’s not questionable at all. He has to play, and the team is going to give him every opportunity to have that be CF. A position that was a dire need is now filled, regardless of how it turns out, I can’t see them upgrading it now.
That said, it’s left SS in the hands of Isiah Kiner-Falefa. I like him, but I think SS is arguably his worst position. For him, that’s still better than most, but there’s no denying what was a hard hitting position for the Pirates will now become less. That’s ok, but I felt they needed him to back up the entire infield, maybe even CF. There is much more value in IKF playing 6 days a week than planting him somewhere, at least the way I see him. Ke’Bryan Hayes will get another chance, and his injury is likely to mean he needs to sit 2-3 times a week. IKF is the guy I want there because the alternative is Jared Triolo.
Liover Peguero might have a new crack at getting back to MLB here. The opening at SS should create a window for such a move, of course, it could also be a place where the Pirates could go get someone to help. Spend money on a guy like Ha-Seong Kim and you have successfully upgraded a position here.
All of this leads me to the biggest change they could make being the manager.
Some of you are like duh I’m quite sure, but where are you willing to cut bait? Who have you seen enough of that I listed? How likely is a free agency or trade upgrade to happen?
Like I said, I see SS as a potential area where they could do better, but will they see it that way? I’m not so sure. I see first base as a clear need, will they think they can just roll with Endy and Joe and be ok?
Improving a team that has a bunch of spots filled with young players who you still want to give space to grow is either really smart or really dumb, and I’m afraid looking at this roster, that’s where I am.
I can’t tell you they should make minimal changes, but it’s incredibly easy for me to prognosticate that they’ll probably make minimal changes to the people actually hitting, throwing and catching baseballs.
If you think that’s wrong, show me where you think the wrong shows up? Do you think they just cut ties with De La Cruz and Suwinski to suddenly for the first time competently upgrade the outfield. Are they going to do better than two guys who have hit over 20 homeruns in this league when they do so? Man, I don’t bet on sports but that’s one I’d never make if I did.
Even my suggestion of upgrading Short Stop, admit it, when you read it you thought to yourself, yeah right Gary.
I come back to the coach because there is one way to truly improve a team that is going to return this many players. Develop them and deploy them more efficiently.
You can’t have that same group of players come back and expect different results unless you expect some of those players to take significant jumps forward and think regression is very unlikely from the others.
Do you believe Derek Shelton can deliver that? More importantly, does Ben Cherington?
Many are going to waste time and energy telling you why Cherington needs fired, me included at some point I’m sure, but I’ll save mine for when I see it as something I believe is even on the table. I don’t in any way believe that, not yet.
Double down on this coach and player group and this GM will either prove himself right or cost himself his position. It really is that simple. Change course on the coach now and probably buy yourself another year or so easily.
Who can we reasonably expect to improve next season?
Oneil Cruz looks incredible right now at the plate, so, let’s see more of that for more of the season. This should be reasonable to expect, he’s not returning from a year off in 2025. Defensively, the obvious, is he a CF or not. Is he a CF we think probably isn’t getting the job done defensively?
Ke’Bryan Hayes is a easy call here. He has to be better and he has a ton of room before he even threatens good. I’m also not sure his back will allow it. That said, this is by far the worst he’s been, chances are he’s at least a bit better in 2025 even if he has to play far less.
Gotta imagine Henry Davis is better right? Sure have to hope for it.
Point is, do the additions and subtractions however you like. If you come up with more than 4-5 additions that might matter, I think you’re probably going to be disappointed, but hey you’re a Pirates fan, you’re used to it.
2-3 additions, yeah, probably the sweet spot.
Well, that and one big subtraction that dominoes a few below him.
For real, it’s one thing to look at the lineup or rotation and complain. Lord knows they’ve performed poorly and deserve it. It’s another thing entirely to critically look at the roster and decide who is and isn’t a bad bet when you’re in the situation they’re in.
Be honest. Be real. Don’t pretend they’re going to think they’re going to take a youngster like Nick Gonzales and bench him for some stud free agent.
Unless you want to cry about it not happening all offseason anyway.
Steel City Pirates 