9-5-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Emotions are mixed after a series win over the Cubs was overshadowed by being no-hit in the final game in Chicago. But the team heads back home to Pittsburgh and will welcome the upstart Nationals and a open up with Jake Irvin.
Irvin enters tonight’s game with a solid sophomore season, posting a 9-11 record and a 4.08 ERA with 136 strikeouts over 161 innings pitched but is coming off one of his worst outings on August 30th where he allowed 7 runs off 8 hits through 4.2 frames against the Cubs.

Mainly working with a low-90s 4-seamer/sinker and a low-80s curve, Irvin works in the zone and eats innings. He’s not going to strike out a lot of batters but his plus-extension works well to make his stuff play up a bit in a similar fashion to his mound opponent tonight, Bailey Falter.

While his sinker has been hit the hardest and most often, his curve and 4-seamer are both prone to get elevated and driven out of the park as his 14.6% HR/FB rate is 7th among all qualified starting pitchers.

Elevating the pitches will be key and a problem that has continued to plague this team, who rolled over on 36 ground-balls in the Cubs series but Irvin has allowed 26 home runs on the season which even lofty confines of PNC Park may struggle to contain.
Additionally, despite his adequate overall numbers, he has struggled consistently when playing at night – which he will today – as he has a 5.01 ERA through 82.2 innings playing under the lights compared to a 3.10 mark over 78.1 frames in sunlight.
Look for something to elevate and get some hits in the air. Warm weather expected today for the Bucs so the hot air will help the ball fly.
Let’s Go Bucs!