Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Solidify Anything

9-9-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Winning streaks haven’t really been in the Pirates bag of tricks often under Derek Shelton. Sure, he’s had a lack of talent to work with over the years, but even when things line up and he has the starters he wants and the matchups that should be a problem for the opposition we often see them fall short and ultimately find a way to not wind up stacking wins.

Thing is, even if that changed down the stretch, I’m not sure it’ll change the overall resume Shelton has put on paper.

There’s always a feeling of what looks like relief to me on the faces of everyone involved with a game to secure a sweep in a series. Players and coaches alike have a different demeanor in that last game, one that almost says, “we’ve done what we came here to do”, as though the sweep would be nice to have, but the series win already being in their pocket, hey, let’s not push it. Let’s get the rest for guys we wanted to get. Let’s not pinch hit here. Let’s stick with this reliever or see if we can get away with using him anyway today.

They haven’t avoided streaks all year because of bad luck exclusively, they’ve avoided winning streaks partially because they don’t show up on that 3rd day looking like they have to have it, and they certainly haven’t coached as though that 3rd win mattered more than any one of the next series games.

It looked like this trend might be finally reversing as the 2024 season started.

Always looking ahead, barely taking the time to consider the things they do or don’t do right now are always effecting that precious future they love to point to adversely.

Let’s go!

1. Welcome Billy Cook!

OK, some new blood. What do we know, what do we think, how do they use him?

First things first. Billy is likely to get treated unfairly in relatively short order. He’s come to the Pirates from the Baltimore Orioles and the immediate supposition from fans and pundits alike was that this talented kid simply couldn’t crack the talent laden Orioles roster because they have such a crazy talented system.

That’s true of course, but it also kinda avoids the reality of Cook’s path to the Bigs.

Billy Cook is almost 26 years old and he was drafted in the 10th round of the 2021 MLB June Amateur draft out of Pepperdine University.

For perspective, the Pirates selected Bethel Park’s own Justin Meis 4 spots earlier in the same draft and he’s now almost 25 and pitching in AA Altoona to very little fan fare.

Point is, this isn’t a guy with undeniable pedigree.

He had a power surge in 2023 with Bowie, stroking 24 dingers and after starting 2024 at the same level, earned his promotion to Norfolk where he performed quite well hitting another 11 in only 304 plate appearances before being dealt to the Pirates and ultimately Indianapolis.

The bottom line on Cook, he can play corner outfield, first base and even a bit of center. I really see them leaving it there, but he does have some third and second in his history as well.

Power might play at first or corner outfield, but I don’t see him as a lock to hit 20. He’ll draw walks and probably strikes out a bit more than you’d like to see but the OPS should fall no farther than .700, with a high .800s capability if the doubles or homeruns tick up.

If you want a comp, I’ll give you one, but you probably won’t like it.

Connor Joe. Now, I’m just basing this on their minor league numbers and defensive positioning, Cook looks to have a bit more projectable power but their lines are eerily similar on the way up, including finally making his MLB Debut at 25, where as Joe was 26.

Likely an MLB player. Has room before he hits his ceiling, but enough track record laid to believe his MLB level is going to fall short of star and land on regular.

Now all we gotta do is watch it play out. The good news is, I really do think this guy can help. The bad news is, this feels like a role player to me.

Ultimately, he could be straight up a Connor Joe replacement. Having both on the roster probably doesn’t make a ton of sense as they’d compete for the exact block of playing time.

2. Bednar Tipping Pitches?

Man, Trevor May sure thinks so…

Watch this video, Trevor does a much better job of describing it than I could.

You don’t have to watch the whole thing to at least determine, Trevor is onto something here. You probably won’t be able to just watch a baseball game after it either without wondering almost constantly if you yourself are picking up on “tipping”.

That’s the danger of things like this. Slowed down frame by frame, I can probably pick something out for almost everyone, but identifying it as a pattern, have it observable in real time, that’s something that takes much more skill, and dare I say experience to see.

Trevor very plainly tells you himself in the video, he recognizes it because he himself did it.

He breaks down what Bednar has done this year against what he has done and makes a compelling case that it isn’t the stuff, it’s the tunneling and at least for me after watching this, a fairly easy to identify tipping issue.

David Bednar has been a franchise cornerstone since bursting on the scene. The team has stubbornly shoved him into the same role all year, regardless of what was happening, and somehow, it’s September 9th and the team has allowed this to proceed all year long. This isn’t like they failed to see Brady Feigl was tipping his fastball because he just came up and why would you even look, this is a 2 time All Star, throwing with more velocity and vertical break than at any other point in his career, and the Pirates spent all season long acting like he was just snake bitten.

Bad luck? Yeah, a little, but this shows at least, he’s making some of his own luck.

I’m left with one thought. Wow.

This stuff gets missed every year, I don’t blame the team(s) because there are factors involved in this coming up in the first place.

• If you come up doing this, hitters don’t know you so it wouldn’t matter
• This stuff will always crop up in your own division before it comes up around the league
• If coaches are looking into it, you’ve probably already been a successful pitcher to merit the effort, but you’re also likely more resistant to changing what has worked for you

The Pirates have had this issue a few times just recently. Chad Kuhl was tipping his fastball, Kyle Crick had a massive tell for his sweeper, and just last year Dauri Moreta ran into a rough patch he attributed to guys knowing his fastball was coming because of his hand position.

Again, it took Kuhl half a season of pitching before anyone noticed anything, Crick only threw two pitches, and his tell was so noticeable, a novice knew which was coming within a year of his usefulness and Dauri figured it out himself due to his own paranoia.

I’m positive there have been more, but it hardly matters. When it’s a guy you’re counting on, it can’t take a full season to notice.

3. Luis Ortiz

One player who has really done work to not only get himself into position to return for another season as a Pirate but potentially as a member of a crowded starting rotation is Luis Ortiz.

He’s taken a step this year and shown the ability even mid outing to adjust what he’s doing and provide length. Essentially, he isn’t perfect, but he’s shown an uncanny ability to clean up his own mess.

Between the bullpen and the rotation, Luis has carried 118.2 innings with a 3.26 ERA. 90 Strikeouts with only 37 walks and a recent bug for giving up homeruns (13). Most of which came in the past month. His WHIP of 1.112 is better than he’s ever produced at this level and it won’t be easy to remove him from the Starter mix, regardless of which prospects are ranked where.

Now, that makes Luis a pitcher who is probably going to finish 2024 with about 140 innings pitched at the MLB level under his belt. He’ll enter a mix of established starters next year along with Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Bailey Falter.

That’s 5 with no mention of returning Johan Oviedo, or oncoming Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington or Braxton Ashcraft.

It’s going to be hard to push Ortiz out of this mix, if nothing else, he’ll be more stretched out, he’ll have already shown what he can do and his ability to adjust at the MLB level and he’ll be coming off a successful season.

Ortiz confuses fans.

He was a phenom in 2022, an exposed prospect in 2023, a reclamation project in 2024 in the bullpen who eventually did the impossible and climbed back to an even better position than he carved for himself back in his rookie season.

Development isn’t linear, and sometimes, if flat out doesn’t make sense.

All that matters right now is, he’s a proven option heading into next year, and the team would do well to let him hold off challengers, even if he eventually relents.

I’m not saying he’s a lock, but I am saying, it’s not the open field it was when Jared Jones won himself a spot this offseason.

4. Is Don Kelly Really an Option to Manage

I have to say, not really.

If you want to make a change, make a complete change, not someone who has made most every decision you don’t like with Derek Shelton.

Part of the reason to make a coaching change is to shock the system. The team is returning the vast majority of players on the roster, and I for one would like to have a completely fresh set of eyes on them. Someone who won’t have the history of decisions they made over the course of 5 years to get here.

This would be like saying, we like how everything is going, we love the decisions being made, we just think it needs said by someone else.

Can I be really blunt with you? That’s about the last thing I want brought in here, let alone kept.

I have nothing against Don Kelly, in fact I think he’ll make a great manager somewhere, I just think there’s too much status quo that would hang out with him if he stayed. Too much familiarity with what would be a no from the GM to bother asking, let alone demanding.

Another aspect of his popularity is his close relationship with Jim Leyland, and all I can say is Derek Shelton has that too, it didn’t help. It never made him into the guy brashly speaking to and about players in the presence of the media. It also didn’t give him Barry Bonds or Miguel Cabrerra on his roster to play.

Lets move on, completely.

I could probably go into the insane requests that this new hire be an ex player. A rookie manager is a crap shoot, and one that used to be their teammate like Andrew McCutchen, well, I can’t even begin to tell you what a horrific idea that would be, but I won’t have to, because some jack ass will ask him about it and he’ll tell you himself how very little he wants to do that.

5. What Joey Bart is Doing is Crazy, Maybe Too Crazy

In 66 games and 203 at bats, Joey Bart has hit 13 homeruns, good for 41 RBI with a .271 Average, .502 SLG and an .848 OPS.

That’s crazy.

When things are crazy in baseball, there’s a good chance they’re an outlier, as opposed to a new normal.

This kind of power production has been there. Back in 2022 Joey played in 97 games, but he played for Gabe Kapler who loved to pinch hit so he only amassed 291 plate appearances and he racked up 11 dingers. Thing is, he struck out 112 times too, this year he’s only K’d 57 times.

Parts of 5 Major League seasons and his OPS+ of 134 is a full 61 points higher than he’s ever posted, his OPS a full 190 points higher.

He’s been incredible.

He also has 3 full years of arbitration starting next year.

I hear almost every day the Pirates need to extend him, and I’m here to say, I neither believe he’s the player he was in San Francisco, or the player he’s been here in Pittsburgh. To me, take full advantage of the Arbitration process. Pay him his 2 million or so next year, ask him to mentor your other catcher capable players and if he keeps doing this, ok revisit it next offseason.

If he doesn’t, take him as the veteran backstop he is and the most equipped backup you’ve had here since maybe Don Slaught.

I’m not predicting he’s going to fall off the face of the Earth, I’m simply saying, you don’t have to guess, baseball makes it entirely easy and in fact smart to just let the process play out a bit.

We spend so much time ensuring ourselves that if the Pirates don’t sign guys before their worth is apparent they’ll never sign anyone, and all I can really say is they just showed you twice that’s no longer fact. Mitch Keller and Bryan Reynolds were both very much so established and they were paid fair market value. Lets not make a rash choice here with a guy who just took advantage of a change of scenery.

It motivated him and helped him emerge this year, next year he’ll just be a regular old Pirate, let’s see what that looks like.

And independently of how Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez progress too. His future and theirs may run concurrently but they need not dictate each other’s path.