9-13-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The Kansas City Royals roll into town with October games on the horizon for the upstart midwestern squad. Fortunately, the Pirates will avoid Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo this weekend – both of whom are having solid seasons – but will face off against sophomore starter, Alec Marsh.
A 2019 Compensation round pick, Marsh steadily worked his way up through the Royals system, peaking at 16th overall in their system per MLB Pipeline last year. He enters play tonight with a 7-8 record, 4.66 ERA and 105 strikeouts through 116 innings pitched this year.
The underlying metrics don’t look super promising for Marsh as his xERA (4.93) and xBA (.266) are both above his actual rates of 4.66 and .244, respectively. He also has struggled to strikeout batters as his 21.6% K rate is the worst he has posted in his professional career.
He boasts a diverse pitch mix with a mid-90s 4-seam as his main offering, adding in a high-80s slider and low-90s sinker against right-handed hitters while switching to a low-80s curve and high-80s changeup against lefties and an occasional sweeper mixed in interchangeably.
While his slider, curve and sinker have been largely ineffective for Marsh, he has found success with his 4-seamer – which has a .303 xwOBA, best among his main offerings. Additionally, his changeup is his best graded pitch, posting a 1.8 Run Value/100, the 14th best mark among pitchers with minimum 50 plate appearances against.
Marsh will work the breaking/off-speed stuff down against opposing batters while filling up the top of the zone with fastballs. Bucs batters will want to hold back and try to get behind the hanging breaking balls that don’t break.
Righties should target the slider, which can get hung up in the zone and has an oSLG of .458, while his curve has gotten hit hard by lefty hitters with a .559 oSLG and an average exit velocity of 91.9 MPH – the highest EV of any of his offerings.
Ambush soft stuff, be wary of the changeup and get an early lead in the game jagainst the dangerous Royals offense.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 