Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Winding Down

9-16-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The baseball season in Pittsburgh is almost over.

The Pirates are almost always gracious enough to move out of the way for the Steelers and Penguins seasons to begin, and honestly, I’m sick of it.

I knew I would be, but the uninspired way the club has played since the calendar flipped to August has made it last longer than I’d hoped.

We’re winding down the season now, and in doing so, I’m going to start sewing bows on some comparison stuff between last year and this, and I’m going to talk to the elephant in the room.

Change needs to come, but all we’re seeing is a team that isn’t poised to make many.

Let’s go.

1. Get to a Minor League Game if You Can

I’m a firm believer, a fan who watches minor league baseball, especially in person, is probably a bit more aware of some “baseball truths” than many of their neighbors.

Take Friday night in Altoona for instance. Termarr Johnson had 5 plate appearances, 2 singles, a double, 2 walks, 2 RBI and a stolen base.

Terrific to see, certainly the kind of numbers we’d hope to see from the number 4 overall pick from a couple seasons back.

Well, like I said, I was there.

In all that activity, Johnson hit 1 ball that I believe would have been a hit in MLB. I don’t say that to disparage him, I simply say it because 99% of the time, I’ve got little more than that box score I reeled off up there along with a few highlights that tend to show a ball moving through the infield for a split second. Being there, I can see that Richmond had a kid playing second who had very little range, and a first baseman who lacked the experience to wander far enough off the line to secure the play himself.

Overall, what I took from Termarr’s night, he is one of the very few in that lineup who is capable of making a batted ball sound like it does in MLB. His double was a no doubt, well struck ball that rung through the ball park. The walks were quality at bats, not a result of being worked around.

Endy Rodriguez played in this game too, he went 1 for 5 with a sharp single that drove in a run and an absolute missile to left that was dropped for a glaring error. Being there though, he hit the ball hard 3 or 4 times aside from the hit, he ran well, and again, the only person in the lineup aside from Johnson who made what I consider to be MLB bat sounds.

Anthony Solometo only surrendered 2 runs but being there, he got hit hard. Laser after laser into the outfield, but he threw strikes and stayed in the fight. He also couldn’t hold a runner at first to save his life, let alone outing.

Point is, I think fans in general would really benefit from checking out a game or two. Doesn’t even need to be your team’s affiliate, just minor league baseball period. Go see the game minus the bells and whistles. Go see what AA or AAA players look and sound like. See how often that pedestrian looking ground ball gets through. See how often guys swing at that curve ball 3 feet in front of the plate.

More than anything, see how often you say to yourself, this is a step down from what I watch everyday. It’ll help you look at those .345 averages and maybe stop assuming they’ll hit .300 in MLB. You’ll find yourself realizing a scoreless frame in AA isn’t exactly the 7th inning against the Dodgers.

It’s good baseball, it’s fun baseball, it’s pure baseball, and more than anything, it’s inferior baseball and as we continue on this journey we’re going to start seeing “good players” who can’t crack MLB. What I’m saying here is, watch a bit more MiLB action and you’ll start to see why that isn’t always a bad thing or at the very least, why it takes some more time than you’d hope.

2. Examining the Offseason

It’s impossible to look at the team as they play out the string and not think about this offseason. It’s equally impossible to look at the offseason and predict what moves will be or should be made if only because we can’t say for sure we know who will be making said decisions.

Additionally, a month ago, I’d have told you the Pirates have to go get a Center fielder and a first baseman along with the prerequisite bullpen options that happen every offseason.

Today, I can honestly say, Center field is off the shopping list with Oneil Cruz moving there and just today, the plausibility of Bryan Reynolds becoming the team’s First Baseman seems more realistic than ever. Each of those moves, one theoretical as we speak, leave holes in their wake. And those holes, need to be filled professionally.

They have some prospects and young players that will surely continue to develop and could merit a shot at the show, but they’re entering an offseason where leaving holes open for “the kids” should be about the farthest thing from what they’re thinking.

It’s time to flip the switch. Prospects should no longer be seen as having some kind of reservation for the Bigs, and instead, hope that they force their way onto the club, take a spot away from a veteran and never let go.

In other words, prospects coming up should no longer be about when they’re ready, and instead when they legitimately could be an upgrade.

Take a guy like Bubba Chandler. Great looking kid, probably going to push his way up here in 2025, but if the Pirates have 5 starters going good and he’s churning too, well, call the fairness police, but that kid isn’t going to get called up until he’s needed. He’ll wait for a poor performance or injury for his chance.

If Termarr comes to camp next year and hits seemingly to his potential and rips up the minors, he’s still going to have to hope Nick Gonzales falls back or there’s an opening at DH to get a shot.

It’s no longer about their arrival times, and more about developing more fully at the minor league level before they get that chance, and when they do, keeping their spot. Hopefully, that will improve their hit rate on players performing when they do get the call too.

3. NL Central Performance

I think it’s interesting to see what some of the Pirates sure fire returning players have done against the NL Central, and yes, I know there are still more games to be played.

Here is Bryan Reynolds

Team	At Bats	AVG	HR	OPS
Brewers	39	.333	3	1.010
Reds	41	.341	2	.933
Cubs	53	.264	3	.811
Cardinals	32	.250	1	.732

How about Oneil Cruz

Team	At Bats	AVG	HR	OPS
Brewers	28	.357	0	.919
Reds	38	.237	1	.624
Cubs	51	.255	2	.749
Cardinals	33	.242	0	.630

How about Andrew McCutchen

Team	At Bats	AVG	HR	OPS
Brewers	32	.344	3	1.025
Reds	22	.182	1	.697
Cubs	30	.233	3	.884
Cardinals	30	.133	1	.535

Finally, Nick Gonzales

Team	At Bats	AVG	HR	OPS
Brewers	23	.261	1	.683
Reds	24	.167	0	.334
Cubs	45	.289	1	.713
Cardinals	30	.233	0	.583

If winning the division is the goal in 2025, and it certainly should be, some of these numbers will have to improve to be sure.

4. What Do You Mean by “Fully Expect”?

I have a hard time with much of this. First of all, in my real life, I’m a marketing professional and as I examine the “marketing” of this baseball team, I’m already fighting the urge to add yet another category this franchise utterly fails at to the discourse.

Statements aren’t marketing, but public relations are intertwined enough that at the very least it’s easy to see bad PR sometimes is the very cause for needing good marketing.

For the past 3 weeks, just about every week Derek Shelton has been asked on his radio show on 93.7 the Fan if he had been told he was going to be back in 2025 and every week he’s deflected it.

It stands to reason, someone was going to ask Ben Cherington too. It was on his radio show, hosted by team employees where it finally was posed, and here’s the deal, the question doesn’t get asked unless he’s ready to answer it in that format.

It also means exactly nothing. And by nothing, I mean absolutely zero can be taken from this comment up to and including the GM’s desire to keep or fire his manager.

The only scenario in which he could answer it differently would be if he had decided that afternoon Shelton was going to be informed he would be removed at the end of the season, and that would prompt a follow up regarding why keeping him to the bitter end makes sense.

So I guess I’m wrong, you can take one thing from it, Derek Shelton will finish 2024 as the manager. After that, all bets are off.

I can honestly say, if this was in complete isolation, and Ben Cherington felt secure and nobody else had a say, he’d probably keep him. The idea of a 5 year plan, or that this was some sure fire year they were supposed to produce X, Y or Z result, is largely based on fan (and media) historic belief that this length of time should be enough to produce whatever those results were supposed to be to them. The GM was never under such a timeline.

Marketing, AKA what Travis Williams does supposedly, well, that is going to be hard regardless of the latitude the GM thought he had, and even if by some chance he and the owner gave him the thumbs up to go ahead and give Shelton a vote of confidence, that marketing reality will create pressure to change. Something. Anything. But something significant, because what they’ll need to create more than anything is a viable and realistic way to say, “Next year will be different/better”.

Maybe it’s my age. Maybe it’s what I do for a living. All I know is just about the last place I go for information about this team or what they might do is the public statements they make.

Clint Hurdle learned this lesson in 2019 when he was told he’d be back, passed that message along to the media and then a week later was fired directly by Bob Nutting before he turned the musket on Frank Coonely and Neil Huntington.

The 3 games they lost that week didn’t change his fortunes. Nobody “lied” to you if you will.

I intended to make a box of Mac and Cheese with dinner last night until I realized the milk was spoiled. So did I lie to my wife or did I just have a closer look when dinner time came around?

5. Team Rankings 2023 VS 2024

Again, we still have some games to go, but time to start tangibly looking at where they fell in the rankings against the league. Sometimes you can make a case that things improved and the record just refused to come along for the ride. I’m not sure we can say that, but to find out, we have to look.

Remember, there are 30 teams…

Stat	2023	2023 Ranking	2024	2024 Ranking
Homeruns	159	28	144	26
Doubles	287	10	219	25
Walks	556	9	450	17
K’s (Hitting)	1464	10	1377	25
Average	.239	24	.236	23
OPS	.707	22	.674	26
Stolen Bases	117	15	97	17
RISP	.255	15	.232	25
WHIP	1.38	22	1.31	23
K’s (Pitching)	1363	21	1245	20
Opp Average	.251	20	.252	24
Walks (Pitching)	596	26	466	11
Opp HR	179	23	156	23
Earned Runs	731	22	609	13
ERA	4.60	22	4.13	19

There have been different players, successes and failures. Development that didn’t take, some prospects who flew and stuck and all in all, very little noticeable improvement.

We can talk about a ton of subjects, but we’ll never escape this simple truth. The team is in neutral and that usually means big changes, not status quo in MLB.