9-23-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
This version of the Pittsburgh Pirates should have been able to end the losing record streak.
I believed that before the season, I believe it now.
They didn’t get there, and that has to come with changes, growth and new goals. We’ll talk about them all off season and I’m not going to be able to resist some of it starting right now.
Let’s go…
1. Rookie of the Year – Paul Skenes
The debate has been fun and Jackson Merrill looks like a fine young player, but Paul Skenes is doing once in a half century type stuff and I’m sorry, betting odds be damned, this couldn’t be more clear to me (even though the odds have flipped in my favor now).
Most of the arguments for Merrill tend to gravitate to the “he plays everyday” or “he’s on a playoff team” domain, and most of those arguments are honestly not Rookie of the Year arguments. They have a place in MVP conversations, but we’re talking about the most outstanding rookie performance, period.
What Merrill has done will be replicated by another rookie within the next five years. Just will. What Paul Skenes has done, again, might not be replicated this century.
In fact, I could make a better case for Shota Imanaga to take down Paul Skenes than Merrill.
Imanaga in 29 starts has generated a 3.2 WAR, 15-3 record, 2.91 ERA, 173.1 IP, 174 K’s and a 1.021 WHIP.
Skenes in 22 starts has generated 6.0 WAR, 11-3 record, 1.99 ERA, 131 IP, 167 K’s and a 0.962 WHIP.
That is a lot closer to a race for this award than Merrill.
4.3 WAR, 537 ABs, .292 Average, .326 OBP, .829 OPS, 24 HR.
Again, great season for a rookie, and 5 years ago, Bryan Reynolds who didn’t finish as a finalist for the award in 2019 would have finished ahead of him in the race. Reynolds came in 4th that season.
One happens just about every year or two, one probably won’t happen again before I die.
It’s Skenes.
For me the debate is over. Paul will likely finish near the top of the Cy Young Award voting, Jackson Merrill would shock me if he landed in the top 10 for MVP, yet I’m supposed to believe they’re razor close for ROY, yeah, ok.
2. In 2025 Potential Answers Can’t be the Only Answers
Every year leading up to now under Ben Cherington has been about “getting better”. You hear them say it way too much. The thing is, if they do actually see a record improvement this season, it’ll be by a game maybe 2.
They have a ton of decisions to make, regarding who will be making those decisions, but whomever that is, they can’t look at the mass of maybe’s on this club and pretend they have filled holes.
I mean, you’re always going to place a bet, but winning in 2025 for whomever can’t be a best case scenario, it needs to be a requirement.
It’s not a nice to have, it’s an expectation.
So if your outfield looks like Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds and then 4 or 5 guys who might or could be, or should improve, or whatever, that’s not good enough.
Wherever you look on the diamond, you should be able to point to the MLB track record holding it down as we start 2025. If some of those guys who might be or could be make it plain that they should be here, ok, make a change, but don’t enter the season assuming you’re going to fill holes, have them full and be mentally prepared to not care about wasted money if you get lucky enough to have a rookie outplay them.
I love all the youngsters and what I’m proposing isn’t slamming the door in their face, it’s just asking the team to not leave anything up to the throw everything at the wall and see what sticks thought process they used during the intense build period which this team again regardless of who they place in charge has to be beyond. Its the same reason you don’t just dump Bailey Falter or Luis Ortiz because Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington look great.
Bring in experience, hope you develop yourself out of the need to roster them and trade talent while simultaneously upgrading your roster with younger players.
The more they leave to chance, the greater the possibility they disappoint again. That’s going to ultimately mean some “kids” you think are going to be good don’t get immediate shots. Be ok with it, or be ok with mediocrity.
3. Will These Final 6 Games Matter for the Pirates Opponents?
The Brewers are locks to win the NL Central, that race is all over and they’re very close to a lock to be the 3 seed in the playoffs. It would take a tank from LA or Philly and for the Brewers to win just about every game they have left, I don’t see it.
That makes me believe they’ll be more focused on getting lined up for their round one series, but division rivals almost always play tight even if they rest some guys.
The Yankees are up 6 on the Orioles, I can’t imagine winning the division isn’t settled by the time the Pirates play them. They could be fighting Cleveland off for the number 1 seed however, that race is relatively close.
Aaron Judge has 55 homeruns, 7 short of his personal record, and MLB’s if you’re one of the people who has to pretend Steroids era players didn’t play, your version of MLB’s record in general. I’m not sure that’s going to be enough of a pull to see them ensure he takes every AB he has coming to him.
The Bucs need 3 wins to tie last season, 4 to better it and they gotta get it done in 6 games against two division winners.
Does it matter? Well, not to most of us, but if they have any intention of returning this management team, even in part, feels to me like they need it. As jaded as this is going to sound and as bullshit as it actually is, if this team can even pull of 77 wins, they have “better” in their back pocket.
They’ll be able to tell you their gold glove 3B who they’ll happily tell you was selected as team MVP in 2023 by some obscure publication essentially was lost for the entirety of 2024.
Or it would have been even better, where we told you it’d be even.
They’ll be able to tell you that David Bednar single handed blew away topping .500. How could they expect that they’ll say, even as they return him to the same spot and try to convince you he’ll get it this time.
They’ll have the story of Jack Suwinski who took team wishes to change some things, destroyed who he is as a hitter and they survived getting next to nothing out of him, even as they tell you how convinced they are he’ll get back to what he was.
Being able to honestly look at the record and physically be able to claim improvement will enable them, especially since bluntly, I think they’re all including Bob Nutting, at least understanding of what happened this year.
They thought they had a competitive team. They’re 5-6 wins from being at least very close to right.
Fans have reacted to this season like they lost 115 games, and I get it, but the team knows you’ll look back with clearer glasses than you are now, so do the media who are telling you to riot in the streets only to tell you which bar to meet them at next Spring in Bradenton as they excitedly tell you about Paul Skenes’ first full Spring Training as an MLB player and hype Ke’Bryan Hayes hitting wind aided homers.
They’ve underachieved, but not as badly as the tone I hear would lead you to believe. No matter what this team does, good luck not being optimistic about what you know is coming back…
4. Jared Jones
Jared Jones has had a tremendous rookie season. He’s been overshadowed by Paul Skenes, there’s little doubt about that, and after both of the “Hundo Boys” stopped throwing um… Hundo like I told you all would happen when the nickname emerged, the interest in this being a double turned real quick into a solo act for the National Media.
Jones to his credit, didn’t let it effect him, although his Lat injury and rehab probably made it easier to accept.
6-8, 4.14 ERA, 21 games, 117.1 innings, 1.176 WHIP, 18 HR.
Solid. Not great. Just solid. The type of performance you get from a rookie in a normal season and it sends you into the offseason cautiously optimistic.
When he won the job in Spring, he was throwing a fastball that moved like crazy and topped triple digits with seemingly no effort. It was coupled with a completely tunneled and effective slider or sweeper.
His two other pitches, he’s rarely thrown. The Curve and the Changeup. As the season is wrapping, he’s built up the curveball and forced it into more at bats, there has to be something offspeed when his velocity isn’t topping Triple figures, and the curve can supply that. When it’s working that is, it doesn’t always and it isn’t keeping bats off his fastball which is the purpose of throwing it.
His curve turns into a slider really quickly though if he simply changes his arm slot. His changeup is just not a good pitch yet, not nearly and heading into Spring, it was supposed to be the “reason he’s ready”.
This sounds nuts, but as we head into year two, Jared being a starter long term to me depends on how his down the line weapons evolve and how much he’s learned about leaving some gas in the tank, cause he almost completely depleted his fuel in the first month and a half of 2024.
Next year with fewer innings restrictions and probably a shorter leash, he’ll need to show he can manage to keep his pitch count in line, certainly needs to regularly push beyond 5 innings. He’ll need either his Curve or Change to take a jump over the Winter. And if he doesn’t, the Bullpen will come calling before too long.
I’m just being real, at some point 5 innings isn’t enough and he wasn’t always pulled because of trying to get him to the finish line, he was pulled much more often because he had thrown 85-95 pitches by the end of the 5th inning, if not before.
Skenes has to do some of this stuff too of course, it’s just a lot clearer he has the mix of stuff to know it’s just about learning how to more efficiently use them.
Jones has little choice but to throw his two best pitches, at least where he currently is.
Overall, tremendous rookie campaign again, but what he is long term, still remains to be seen if you ask me.
5. What Does a Hitting Coach Do?
A Major League Baseball hitting coach works with players to improve their batting form and technique. Their responsibilities include:
- Monitoring swings: Observe players’ swings during games and practices, and provide advice between at-bats.
- Video analysis: Use video to analyze players’ swings and identify flaws or bad habits.
- Preparing for opposing pitchers: Use video and statistical analysis to prepare players for opposing pitchers.
- Adapting coaching: Hitting coaches should adapt their coaching style to each player.
- Empowering players: Hitting coaches should help players take ownership of their process.
This isn’t just in Pittsburgh, this is everywhere. Typical things that one should expect from an MLB hitting coach. All designed to do one major thing, help guys find a way out of struggle.
That’s right, by the time a player reaches MLB, there is nobody there who is going to teach them how to hit. Nobody is going to reinvent their swing, in fact in today’s game every player has their own hitting coach. I just heard Derek Shelton confirm this on his appearance with Greg Brown and Michael McKenry on their Hold My Cutter Podcast.
It’s all this stuff though that Andy Haines is not helping with nearly enough. Ending slumps, identifying a hole in a swing. Finding a cleaner path to get his load ready to fire off, all that stuff.
A lot has been placed on this overall philosophy, but for the most part, that overall philosophy is owned and practiced by all 30 teams in the game. Helping to turn things around when a guy is struggling, that’s the money shot.
The Pirates have to make a change here, but let’s be clear, the next guy’s “approach” is going to sound exactly the same, and that won’t be because Cherington believes in some weird cult like beliefs either, it’ll be because for the most part, they all start with the exact same stuff.
They need a better mechanic a lot more than they need a new shop to take the car to.
Steel City Pirates 