9-24-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The Pirates open up their final home series of the season as the NL Central division-winning Milwaukee Brewers come to town with Tobias Myers on the bump for game 1.
Myers previously faced the Pirates twice this year: once on April 23rd where he pitched 5 frames of 4-hit, 1-run ball with a walk and 4 Ks and again on July 10th, when he twirled 8 shutout frames of 4-hit ball with one walk and 6 strikeouts so it is unlikely that the team will be eager to see ol’ Toby again.
Entering today, Myers has an 8-6 record with a 3.06 ERA over 130 innings pitched with 130 strikeouts to 36 walks but even that is weighed down by a sub-par May as over his last 18 starts, he has a 2.44 ERA through 103.1 innings dating back to the start of June.
The 26-year old righty has been posting solid numbers but the peripherals indicate a different picture with his xERA, FIP and xFIP all considerably higher than his ERA.
This is due in part to his below average strikeout numbers (22.3%) and his tendency for hard-hit fly balls with a 40.4% fly ball rate and 31.9% hard-hit rate.
As mentioned in the previous piece, Myers mostly leans on his 2 fastballs in the low-90s (4-seam and cutter), paired with a mid-80s slider and an infrequent high-70s curve but his low-80s changeup has been his best offering overall.
Opposing hitters have managed just 8 hits against his changeup while whiffing at a nearly 45% clip and striking out 39% of the time. His slider has also produced positive results, breaking down under the zone and resulting in a 51.5% ground-ball rate.
In contrast, his fastballs have hung up in the plate, leading to hitter-friendly launch angles resulting in 17 of his 18 home runs surrendered and 28 of his 34 extra base hits allowed coming against those pitches.
Best chance for success today is for Pirates hitters to lay off the low breaking stuff and hold to the high heat. Barrel up the ball and find a way to break through against Myers.
Let’s Go Bucs!
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