9-27-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
In just about every measurable way Mitch Keller took a slight step backward in 2024.
He’s had brilliant starts, and some downright stinkers too, but what the Pirates needed him to be in 2024, well, overall, he didn’t answer the bell.
Let’s not get crazy, this is a valuable pitcher, his contract, the details of which I’ll get into a bit later here is completely acceptable, even for what he did this year.
Veteran pitchers who stay on the mound, deliver innings, can take over a game, usually keep you in it when they don’t, can get a K when they really need it, listen, to say what Keller is getting paid is the going rate is perhaps too simple.
So let’s compare.
Mitch Keller made $5.85 Million in 2024, it’s the last time he’ll make single such an amount, as it escalates to $15.411 in 2025, $16.911 in 2026, $18.411 in 2027 and finishes at $20.411 in 2028.
When I say this isn’t a bad contract, it’s because I’m looking at what a player like this makes on the open market, not because I think should he replicate these numbers in 2028 the Pirates would be happy or feel they got great value for their dollar.
For that $5.85 here’s what he delivered. It’s not a top of the rotation line is it?
You’ll recall many of us on this site trying very hard to remind people what Mitch Keller was vs the expectation you were probably going to have that this was an “ace” style deal. Truth is, this is an average MLB pitcher deal, with an AAV of roughly 15 million per year. Right now, he’s a very middle of the road, middle of the rotation type pitcher.
That’s ok, it’s just not a progression that a 28 year old should be having, these are supposed to be years where he grows into that higher paycheck.
Maybe a comp will help me get this across.
Enter Kyle Gibson, the 36 year old journeyman who got paid 12 million this year by the Cardinals and via option he’ll return to make the same thing next year.
Now, Kyle is on the other end of his career, he’s supposed to be slowing down, he’s supposed to do less of the heavy lifting at this point. Guys like him, this is what they make in this league, so if you can lock a younger guy up who’s already here and you think he has room to get better than that, well, this is the kind of risk this team needs to make and have traditionally rejected.
I’m not going to rewire your head in one article. If you think Mitch makes too much or this is a risk the Pirates shouldn’t have taken, I’ll simply say, a guy like Kyle Gibson is who they’d go get to fill the role, and history says they’d probably aim a bit lower.
To me, I’ll take the homegrown player in the middle of this rotation, surrounded by kids, some of whom pitch better than him, again, I don’t need him to be the ace, I just need him to be able to look like it once in a while and have his lows come about a bit less often.
All that being said, the Pirates need more from guys they extend than they’ve gotten. Bryan Reynolds maintained his level of output, but Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes fell back, Mitch is not a health issue, so I and I’m quite sure the club expect more.
One thing I don’t think has gotten enough play, Mitch Keller had to adjust his schedule and timing to help accommodate on boarding and getting to the finish Jared Jones, Bailey Falter and Paul Skenes.
Seems like it shouldn’t be a big deal but Mitch has gone every 5th day for just about all his career and more than almost any pitcher they’ve had in recent years, a complete creature of habit and comfort.
Change his catcher, he’s off. Change the opposition’s lineup even slightly after he’s game planned, he’s off. Mound landing zone a bit soft, he’s off. Change his schedule in any way, and yeah, you guessed it, he’s off.
It had to be done, the alternative was to keep him on his schedule and shuffle everyone around him, I can totally see why they wouldn’t want to go that direction.
It’s unclear how the Pirates will approach their rotation in 2025. For one thing, we don’t know who’s coaching or General Managing. For another, I can’t see wanting to minimize a healthy Paul Skenes, so I think we’ll see the team jump right back to a more traditional 5 man rotation, potentially with a swing man who can pick up a start during 7-10 day stretches of play.
So Mitch should get back to his comfort zone a bit. He’s also going to have to get past having an extreme veteran catcher, because I think he’s going to get a healthy dose of Joey Bart and two kids, and he needs to be ok with it.
Lastly, for the second straight year, Mitch Keller’s Cutter has been a problem. He throws it like 12% of the time which is a huge drop from the close to 25% he threw it in 2024 and here’s the thing it got hit at a .316 clip last year so it makes total sense to minimize it, this year opponents hit .272 off the pitch, but the key is the Slugging. In 2023, .503 and then this year, .593, and you can’t even blame luck, the XSLG or expected slug both years was actually around 30 points lower, which would still have me featuring it.
The pitch has to go, or he has to find a way to keep hitters from picking it up. Right now, all it does is move less than his sweeper and come in a bit faster but players can tell the difference and it couldn’t be more clear.
It’s part of why I have been so underwhelmed by the mummies they keep buying to catch and act like they’re defensive and game calling Gods, this cutter issue has been apparent, and I mean Mitch himself acknowledged it to me at Piratesfest last year. He likes to throw it because it’s easier on his arm, but the pitch isn’t working, again, change the shape, throw it harder, throw it less, drop another similar pitch, something has to happen, it’s far too obvious to persist another season.
Something else has happened over the years, and it’s minimized the effectiveness of this pitch further as well as his relatively new sinker. Look at what’s happened to his arm angle.
I don’t know enough about pitching to tell you this is wrong. I just know enough to tell you this steady of a change can change the effectiveness of offerings you’ve long since established. Again, this is where I turn it over to the experts. I can tell you this sort of thing doesn’t happen unintentionally, it also doesn’t happen in the dark.
To get where they want to go, Mitch Keller needs to be a firm number 2 or 3 in this rotation, and if he gets passed by Jared Jones, Thomas Harrington, Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler, Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo, whomever, it needs to be because they pitched better than Mitch, who still pitched like a firm number 2 or 3.
Either way, this wasn’t the type of season I’m sure Mitch hoped he’d deliver, let’s hope the extra arm rest he got while being part of this rotation in 2024 nets a fully rested arm who is far more productive next year and helps bring about what Mitch has always wanted to be a part of, playoff baseball. He’s actively been building up his arm with that goal in mind for half a decade now.
All that’s left is to finally pitch like it for a full season.
Steel City Pirates 