10-18-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
I like to do this every offseason. Because it’s almost exactly how I start every regular season. A list of questions that need answered.
You can just look at the win column and determine this isn’t a club that has all the answers, but until you identify the questions, it’s hard to stop yourself from just spiraling into a mood that prevents examination.
So here we go, I’ll present the question, ways it could be answered along with my expectations. I’m going to start with what I consider the big 3, there are more of course, but these 3 in many ways will both ask and answer even more of them.
Ke’Bryan Hayes’ Back
Question: Can he stay healthy and on the field?
Finding the Answer: There’s no way to answer this one but to see the season play out. And I mean the entire season. Nobody including the team should feel good about this because he shows up to Bradenton in the warm Spring sun and starts poking wind blown balls out to right-center. We need to see how he is, how it changes his production and more than anything, how the team and the doctors have decided to ensure he has what it takes to last all season long.
My Expectation: I expect the Pirates to limit Ke’Bryan Hayes to 4 or 5 games a week, and unless the bat proves invaluable, which to be fair it hasn’t very often beyond a stretch here and there, that’ll be it. They’ll need to rely on the network of 3B capable players they’ve grown and acquired, like Nick Yorke, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to ensure the team feels like they can properly rest Hayes and keep him productive without a huge fall off. If it looks like one of the backups has potential to play more, and Hayes has played well, I could see the Pirates potentially looking to move him, but before any of this plays out, I just can’t see the value being at a place where considering it before the season makes sense.
My Fear: He struggles at the plate and it has nothing to do with the back. Let me be clear, he’ll likely always have some tenderness with his back. Curing back pain is something few ever actually achieve. So I don’t mean like he has absolutely nothing he plays through. But if he logs say 130 games, they’ve tried like hell to keep him strong and he still isn’t producing, they’ve got some real issues to deal with, up to and including a very expensive bench player and glove specialist. Expensive for what I just described, not a starting 3B.
The Starting Rotation
Question: There is a lot of talent on the mound, but how do they best deploy it?
Finding the Answer: For the first time I can remember as a Pirates fan, I could name a complete pitching staff of MLB players that will all very likely be back. The Pirates need to understand what they have, and what they have coming, and they have a key advantage they didn’t have in 2024, they don’t have to add in two rookies and ask them to set innings records to get through a season. They do however need to ensure they aren’t blocking potentially superior talent, and not waste the talent already here in the process.
My Expectation: They start the season with Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller as virtual locks to be the headliners of the rotation. I believe they’ll truly let Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler battle for a spot too, but I think they’ll only allow one to secure a spot if that makes sense. I don’t sense the desire to play the innings restriction game all year again to the detriment of the entire rotation. I think Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo, Bailey Falter, the two previously mentioned prospects, Braxton Ashcraft, and Mike Burrows will all compete for a chance, and I wouldn’t rule out more than a few winding up in bullpen roles. I wouldn’t even rule out a veteran signing, but if they do that, it needs to be of a higher quality than we’ve seen in recent history. This isn’t a year for a shot at help, if you bring it in this year, it has to BE help.
My Fear: They overthink this and do something non-traditional. The 6-man rotation was a necessary evil last year, but if I have Paul Skenes in my rotation, bro, I want to see him pitching every 5th day. I want guys like Mitch Keller on a schedule, he works better that way. I want the rotation and the backing to ensure I don’t have to watch “bullpen” games. My fear is they’ll believe themselves smarter, do something they see as revolutionary and in the process minimize a strength this franchise has rarely had.
Bryan Reynolds
Question: Can Bryan Reynolds Move to 1B?
Finding the Answer: Here’s the thing, the Pirates kinda need this answer before they attack free agency, and perhaps they already do, but it’s far cheaper to acquire corner outfielders than it is to acquire first basemen, and there are far more of them to choose from too. There’s also an angle to this that potentially means more than helping Bob spend less than me might have to, Bryan has a contract, and he’ll be 30 this year. Moving him to 1B could help him keep his legs under him better and as a switch hitter, it’s the perfect everyday position to make sure he runs through the tape as a Pirates player.
My Expectation: I feel like they’ll toy with the idea, but won’t move directly toward this being a reality. STATCAST might hate Bryan Reynolds as an outfielder, but he’s also not a guy you’re going to hear a lot of naked eye observers suggest “stinks” as I often have pointed to me. I think the Pirates will look at their roster and see Oneil Cruz as the only cemented outfielder aside from Reynolds and he’s only been there since like this morning. I guess if they had like 5 positions locked up and feeling solid, you might feel like you can move one of your established guys, I’m just not sure they’ll feel that steady this offseason. Even if a big part of me hopes they do.
My Fear: They’ll play games with this. Try him at 1B here and there during the season and almost make him part of the picture there. To me, Reynolds is an all in player, put him where you want him, give him time and if he’s physically capable he’ll be best suited staying right there. I’d much prefer they treat him as such. I guess the biggest fear is they kinda consider him someone who could play there, maybe they even experiment with it, then it lowers what they bring in to man the position, feeling they have the backing of something like this.
I’ll do more of these as the offseason goes on, but to me, the answers to these questions almost more than any others will wind up telling the story of 2025. Sure they’ll sign guys, and trade for others, but these will be the in house questions I’ll be focusing on all year. Answer them well and they’re a lot closer than they feel right now.
Steel City Pirates 