Lets Really Talk About Jared Jones

11-27-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’m a big fan of Jared Jones.

Many of you who’ve been reading my stuff for a long time remember he was my favorite draft choice in 2020 and as closely as I followed his progression, I can’t say I expected him to start on the 26-man roster for the Pittsburgh Pirates last year.

We’ll get into his rookie campaign here in a minute, but I first wanted to simply say, I love this kid, and I really think his future is bright, I also think I’m starting to see some projections for him in 2025 that I’m sorry, are simply unrealistic.

If you really look into Jared’s pitch mix you’ll see he has 4 pitches. If you actually watch him pitch, you’ll see he really has 2. A fastball and a slider, both plus pitches, together more than enough to miss bats and collect outs at the MLB level. Look Jared is an MLB pitcher in every way, but unless that 2 starts looking like 2.5 or 2.75 or dare I suggest 3, he’s going to struggle to hold onto a starting role.

I can already hear you correcting me. Yes, again, he throws a curve ball, about 9% of the time, and yes he also has a changeup, and he uses it about 7% of the time. In baseball, and more accurately MLB, you can have pitches, or you can HAVE them. Jared has them. For now.

In those 16% of his pitches thrown, the devil lies.

He threw a total of 178 Curveballs last year, hitters raked .348 of that juicy pitch. It’s not just where it goes, it’s how well he knows where it’s going. If you can’t put a pitch like this where you want it, its likely to get smacked.

Pay particular attention to how much the edges of this profile look. The more irregular this shape is, the less you’re throwing the ball repeatably where you want it.

One major flaw in this is that I have no data to compare it to. I don’t have 2023 to show you that he’s improved or stayed the same. I also don’t have plot points for when he and the pitching coaches tried to implement changes.

The pitch is a work in progress. One that quite frankly, he doesn’t have to complete, IF he gets the changeup nailed down.

But he does need one of them.

Here’s why. Because as sexy as it was when he first came up and piped 100 past everyone right down the middle, over time hitters will find a way to hit that, and he’s shown that 100 is not a velocity he can carry for a season. If you’re really honest, you knew that even as he was doing it. If all you have to offset it is a slider, well, that can work, but you better be able to land that slider in the zone or hitters will pick up spin of any kind and spit on it.

And that’s if the slider is working. If it drifts up in the zone, well, look for yourself.

To right handed hitters and lefties alike, that slider is deadly down in the zone on the edges.

Drift up or leave it center cut, there’s a whole lotta red on that chart.

It’s a swinging strike pitch for Jared, certainly something you want to have, but it’s also not a pitch that is going to get a ton of takes.

Around the edges, or down in the zone, he’s money, with just about everything.

It’s year 2 for Jared, and he won’t carry the weight of being THE exciting young pitcher who nobody can take their eyes off of considering his rotation mate Paul Skenes. He doesn’t need to be the steadying force who eats 200 innings, that role is supposedly taken by Mitch Keller.

No, Jared just needs to take a step, even if it’s a small one and he’ll be a valuable member of the rotation.

I think that’s doable, but I also think more is plausible. It’s just incredibly hard to watch someone progress normally when they’re pitching next to a freak who defies all of that stuff, and it will eat into the patience some fans have for what in any other environment would be seen as normal progression.

If Paul Skenes weren’t here, Jared Jones would have been the brightest point of light for Pirates in 2024, a definitive reason for hope. Someone we could build a rotation around. Well, he’s still all of that, he’s just not Paul Skenes. Instead, he’s potentially on a track like Spencer Strider, which again, before we had Skenes to measure next to seemed like an incredibly sexy comp.

Development is not linear, but it has been for Jones. He’s been on an upward trajectory since he was drafted, expect that to change this year while he continues to learn and add to his mix. Be excited about him, but be reasonable too, he isn’t Paul, he’s Jared Jones.