12-5-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
There’s no denying the Pirates need to acquire help for the bullpen. They’ve already started by acquiring Peter Stzelecki from the Guardians.
You can consider losses to free agency or passing on tendering a guy if you like. Aroldis Chapman not being a Pirates player certainly changes the starting point here and Hunter Stratton who’ll likely start on the IL could wind up re-signing with the club so, I’ll hold off on including him.
They have some guys returning from injury, like Dauri Moreta and Johan Oviedo too, so like ocean waves bullpens always have a bit of offseason push and pull to them.
The bullpen was a source of great pain last year.
Before we get into the names let’s look at what the Pirates bullpen did in 2024 a bit differently, specifically, I only want to look at the 7th inning on. 7-8-9, and extras but for the most part, these are the guys that are supposed to get you the outs. This should even out from the games where you’re down 11-2 and tossing Rowdy Tellez in the 9th, and some waiver guy in the 7th and 8th. If this rotation is as good as we think, the Pirates need to absolutely dominate the 7th through 9th.
18th in the League in ERA at 4.05.
The top 6 teams in this area all made the playoffs in 2024. The Bottom 8 all missed the post season. The Pirates find themselves in the middle of the pack, which makes sense, David Bednar wasn’t unplayable the entire year, and Chapman was more good than bad. Those two alone help them settle in the middle.
Add in Colin Holderman who was unhittable before he got wobbly wheels and wrecked Dad’s car, and Dennis Santana sure helped, and he’ll be back too by the way. More on them later.
14th fewest Hits allowed from this set of innings.
This one is weird. Six of the ten best performers here made the playoffs, and two of the bottom ten did too.
Again, our Buccos fall somewhere in the middle. They were very much so a swing and miss bullpen and… yeah, they walked a ton of guys too.
25th in the league. 199 walks just from this set of important innings.
So they tamed the hits, by striking out the 7th most at 490, and all those walks.
All those guys on base though, they make the hits they do give up straight up damage.
I mean, some of the 410 hits they surrendered were 44 homeruns, which surprisingly is good for 7th best in baseball. I bet everyone who just read that will go double check me, but I promise. I didn’t believe it either, thought it was way more. Toronto gave up 77 in this inning stretch for perspective.
The bottom line, some of building a bullpen is simply having a ton of options and seeing what cream rises to the top. But if you want to be a playoff team, you best not miss on making sure you have the back end of games a lot more defined than that.
Guys can take a job as the season plays out, but you better have a plan for at least your “ramp to victory”.
Sure that up, and the talent overflow will fill in around it and support it.
I’m here to tell you, the Pirates are in better shape than ya think here. Better than I can remember in recent memory really.
But, but, Bednar is awful now Gary!!!
I know, know, hear me out ok, if you’ll recall I didn’t even want to tender him for arbitration.
I still like the overall package they’re going to start with, before they’ve added anything more than an overflow arm from the leagues best relief staff, the Cleveland Guardians, psst, it’s that Peter guy I talked about earlier.
Let’s go through it, and keep in mind, the Pirates have wide open roster spots, so there won’t likely be a bunch of guys being squeezed out for space.
The Bucs have 16 pitchers currently on their 40-man roster. Some of them are starting pitchers of course, but there also is a fairly wide gray area. I may see Bailey Falter as a nailed on starter, but the team could see him as a bullpen option in favor of someone like Bubba Chandler who isn’t even on this list. Feel me?
So I’m going to talk about all 16, a few options not listed but viable and we’ll see how we feel about the potential of this unit before we’ve added anything fun.
Starters
Paul Skenes – Yeah, he’s ummm, not going in the bullpen.
Jared Jones – Jared had a great rookie season, he’ll come into camp as a member of this rotation and I’m inclined to believe he’ll stick there, but it’s not as sure a thing as Skenes, little is.
Mitch Keller – Yup, this is it for Mitch, he’s a starter and if the Pirates don’t do anything, he’s also the veteran leader of this staff. Here’s the thing, he’s faded badly post All Star break two straight years, even if the innings he’s eating are admirable. Either he changes something about his conditioning, or the team needs to ask him to get that extra inning early in the season a bit less. I also find it at least notable that this times up with losing the veteran starters the Pirates have brought in every year due to being traded. Maybe nothing, but maybe he’s not a guy who can be that. Maybe Paul just takes it anyway, I mean he’s already been named the team’s union rep. Either way, he’s a valuable arm, and a sure bet.
Luis Ortiz – I loved what Ortiz did in both the pen and the rotation. He still has some consistency issues, but man, it was a better year than anyone believed was coming. Instructive for the other rookies we’ll talk about in a bit, believe the talent, even if the execution isn’t there, because sometimes, you find something worth finding. I’m putting him here simply because he’s the incumbent, and it’s entirely possible he does wind up back in the mix for bullpen help.
Bailey Falter – Man, what an absolute beast of a season from what many assumed was going to be the first and probably worst decision the Pirates made all season long. He was impressive, and mystifying. You watch on TV and wonder how the hell nobody hits him, then you see it in person and suddenly understand, man, this guys 93 really gets up on you.
Crossover Candidates
Of course, because I went ahead and chose the 4th and 5th rotation members, they could swap for guys here, or even just get pushed into the group by someone brought in or a non rostered prospect.
Braxton Ashcraft – He is very capable of showing up this Spring and taking a starting gig, but if they choose, he could also fill a few different roles in a bullpen. In some ways, you could see him putting together a Luis Ortiz like year where he pitches in a bit from a few different roles. Could get jumped over too. Lotta talent in this arm though.
Johan Oviedo – Man, it’ll be nice to see this horse get back on the saddle, I’m putting him here because I just don’t want to push a guy coming off UCL. Even if he were ready and stretched, he’ll be limited on innings, and it might be best to consider using him out of the pen, at least until you need him for performance or spot duty.
Mike Burrows – Mike battled back from injury and he looks ready to contribute. Not all that long ago, Burrows was the most promising young arm anywhere near MLB, but he simply couldn’t string together enough healthy innings to get his shot. Don’t sleep on Mike, he is just as capable of taking a rotation gig as anyone here.
Relievers Fighting for a Spot
Carmen Mlodzinski – It’s year 3 for the former starting prospect, and he’s been brilliant, annnd, not so brilliant too at times. That’s why he’s here. He has options, so his spot on the big club isn’t a guarantee, but he’s also a very promising option here. Like I said earlier, take note of the talent, you can’t just try forever and never get results, but the talent is what you drafted, helping guys learn how to use it is where the rubber hits the road.
Kyle Nicolas – His second full season upcoming, Kyle has some of the filthiest stuff in the system. He has moments where his command completely escapes him but overall, he had a positive rookie campaign. I know I want to see more, but like Carmen, he has options, so he’s fighting.
Dauri Moreta – Returning from UCL, I expect him to be a factor toward the second half if he progresses well. Again, I simply won’t put that kind of pressure on anyone returning from that procedure. He was a brilliant fireman, a role they have not successfully filled since he went down mind you.
Joey Wentz – Who you ask? Well, to you he might as well be a non roster invitee. He’s left handed, the first one I’ve mentioned, which really highlights their single greatest need, but I digress.
Peter Strzelecki – A bit of a journeyman. From Milwaukee, to Arizona, and ultimately Cleveland, he hasn’t performed terribly at any of his stops really, just never had a team decide he was more than filler.
Almost Lock Bullpen Members
You don’t have to like them all, but you probably need to accept them.
David Bednar – He’s going to make close to 6 million dollars in 2025, he’s going to have a role. Will it be closer again like nothing happened? I know for a fact the team hopes, and believes so.
Dennis Santana – He’s a right handed Ryan Borucki. Claimed off the scrap heap and found success here in Pittsburgh. For a solid two months, Dennis was arguably the Pirates best reliever, no matter where they used him.
Colin Holderman – Huge arm. Crazy stuff. Stretches of being unhittable. And then there’s the times when he’s the exact opposite of good. His overall numbers are good despite that performance, but to help in the back end, Colin needs to find a way to keep his performance at a more even keel.
The Non-roster Options
We’ve listed out and briefly discussed all the 16 current arms on the 40-man, but we know they have more coming, and while some of these will be starters, they could still affect the chemistry of the pitching staff and we have to acknowledge their existence.
Bubba Chandler – Just like Jared Jones last year, Bubba has every chance to win a spot out of camp on this roster. He will start, they have no interest in moving him to the pen, so keep the door open for him to go off and take a spot, but expect him to start in AAA until he becomes impossible to ignore. Legitimate Rookie of the Year pedigree here though.
Thomas Harrington – Not as highly rated as Bubba, but has a ceiling that puts him in the same rare stratosphere. They’ll want him to start one way or another, and since he doesn’t need protected from Rule 5, they don’t need to be in a hurry.
Sean Sullivan – Under the radar starting prospect. Didn’t stay healthy and hasn’t thrown a pitch in AAA yet, but there’s real talent here and he’s only 24.
Eddy Yean – The only remaining piece from the Josh Bell deal. He had a very nice season in AA Altoona and just made AAA at the end of the year. Big arm, probably gets an opportunity if he does anything of note in AAA this year.
Yohan Ramirez – Remember him? Well, he still does what he did. Throws a crazy slider and misses bats, unless he doesn’t, which leads him to his next locker room more often than not.
J.C. Flowers – I thought J.C. had a shot last year, but it never materialized. He’s had stints in AAA twice, and neither went well, but in AA he’s been money. This is the year they decide if that’s predictive of his MLB future or not.
Tyler Samaniego – Tyler is exactly the second left handed pitcher mentioned in this piece, and bluntly, he’s a long shot.
So, What Do They Need?
Left handed bullpen help seems obvious. But they need more than just guys who can throw from that side, they need someone who can handle doing some heavy lifting from that side.
Yes, now you can complain about Aroldis Chapman. He’s a lefty, he’s used to leverage situations, in other words, he’s the exact type of pitcher they need, he’s also a guy who spent all last year in Pittsburgh and well, it wasn’t enough was it?
I’ll reserve my pining for Chapman until I see them not bring in a couple guys to fill the void he left.
So the shopping list in my mind is a solid left handed option who can handle some back end if not specialize in it. And it would be good if they brought in one more guy with some actual track record, someone with a couple decent seasons under their belt, preferably with a different mix than what they have.
The Pirates have a stable of young, hard throwing pitchers, it might be good to see them bring in someone almost like a Bailey Falter who comes at guys with a different velocity level or a strange arm angle, a guy like this can really help keep hitters off some of your other options.
All in all, I really like this mix to start with.
Anyone who tries to predict a bullpen mix in December is lying to you, hell, I couldn’t look at whatever they bring North in April and pretend they would all be there come September, so when you look at a bullpen, it’s important to look at everyone you can imagine being part of it, and I like doing it before new bits and pieces start being added.
Additions come with conditions. Sign a FA, he’s going to play. Bring in an NRI, solid chance they have no options or an opt out for not making the team so it causes you to potentially not choose one of your younger players on the upswing. At least to get started.
They might have to trade for these pieces, but we aren’t talking earth shattering deals here either. Or, maybe they’ll take a big swing on a guy like Tanner Scott, I know, keep dreaming.
Steel City Pirates 