Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – On the Turning Away

12-9-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Well, the Juan Soto deal and landing spot has finally been decided. 15 years for a whopping 765 million dollars.

He’s not the best player in the world, but he’s damn close and more than anything, he’s a perfect storm of a player. Started young in MLB and produced, that’s miracle number one. Followed quickly by miracle number two, he rode out all the trades, different teams, countless attempts to convince him to stay rather than test the free agent market and continued to produce.

He did all that before reaching miracle three, reaching free agency before your “prime” years have even been reached. We’ve seen 15 year deals before, we’ve rarely seen them when it seemed plausible the guy might still be productive by the end.

As we go through my thoughts today, I just couldn’t think of any band more appropriate than Pink Floyd. Because a lot of what I saw on social media made me think of the song title I used for the headline. I see a lot of fans for one reason or another, turning away from MLB. Disgusted by the imbalance, fans were almost stricken silent.

It’s not like anyone begrudges Juan Soto making a mint, it’s more the acceptance that even to the Yankees, there was a bit of “here’s our 760 million dollar offer, you don’t have to accept it, maybe it would be bad if you did”.

Good for him. Good for Steve Cohen and his Mets, I still don’t think they have anywhere close to a World Series team by the way, not yet. The next “mega” deal like this could very well be Paul Skenes.

If this one didn’t break your soul, that one sure will.

Let’s go.

1. Us and Them

MLB is very much so an Us and Them situation now. It’s been that way for years, but there was always at least the appearance that teams weren’t excited to exceed the Luxury Tax Threshold, until recently.

As I wrote sometime last week, the Pirates don’t really get to participate in this “fight” because frankly they don’t fight to be involved.

The Us and Them to me is the top spenders who can sign anyone they want, and the other teams who can’t but do try to do everything they can to win anyway. At best the Pirates are the guys with their noses pushed up against the window hoping for a peek.

Watching the Dodgers come off winning the World Series rather handily and immediately add big money talent to their All Star team rubbed some people the wrong way. But nothing highlights how very divided and disproportionately so this league is like having a player such as Juan Soto, or Ohtani on the open market. Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox if they want to play the game, Blue Jays who are always the bridesmaids in this stuff because frankly they don’t have the money to actually win them. The Cubs could, they just don’t. The Padres have, but they’re going through a transition period. That’s it.

A team like the Braves can’t. Brewers, Kansas City, St. Louis, Houston, big markets, teams that try, teams that win, teams that have signed big contracts, none of them were even whispered to be in on the “best free agent offensive talent” in this year’s pool.

I’m not saying this leads to immediate change for the game. I’m just saying when you have fans in Atlanta, or Houston, St. Louis, all knowing they simply can’t compete with the very top end of the league financially, well, you start fostering resentments that pay dividends later.

In the NHL, everyone was shocked when Edmonton traded Wayne Gretzky to LA, arguably the best to ever lace them up, Wayne eventually realized if he was ever going to you know, get paid for being the best of the best he was going to have to leave, and Edmonton knew they couldn’t afford him, in fact they knew what they could offer would be embarrassing. Eventually when the only other team who could afford him the New York Rangers took their turn, let’s just say the league woke up a bit. Hell, the Penguins went bankrupt trying to prove they could keep Mario and build a winner around him. Thank God they did, but they knew they were stealing from Peter to pay Paul.

These types of deals are the types that slowly start to shift the icy hearts of people who will “never” agree to this that or the other thing. Let’s see how it goes, but this league has never been more Us vs Them than it is right now, even if the Pirates are still uninvolved bystanders.

2. Wish You Were Here

We don’t have to wish any more. Dave Parker the Cobra has been selected for the MLB Hall of Fame.

This campaign feels like it’s been going on for a decade and frankly, I thought it would be something I wrote about every year until he stopped appearing on the Veterans Committee list with nothing to show for it.

Like it or don’t, Parker’s numbers make him a borderline Hall player on paper, meaning there was always going to be a legitimate argument for and against him. In Pittsburgh, we are rightfully biased, as he had his very best years right here in black and gold.

For a stretch though, the Cobra was not only very good, he was arguably the best outfielder in the National League. His window of being the best version of himself was not as long as many of the contemporaries who came up for inclusion, and he was wrapped up in one of baseball’s biggest scandals which at one point seemed to seal his fate with reinforced steel.

A career WAR of 40.1, is low on the totem pole for HOF inclusion. 339 Homeruns is special, but not alone HOF special. His .290 lifetime average is impressive with close to 10,000 at bats. Bottom line, time forgave whatever grudges existed, history looked at his numbers with lenses that didn’t exist 20 years ago like OPS+ 121.

The Pirates actively campaigned for this one, just like they did Leyland, so give them credit where due, even if the way they run the club all but guarantees we won’t see many more entries who wear the Pirates uniform on their bust, you know, unless Cutch makes it.

Congrats Mr. Parker, not that I expect you’re reading this, but the 5 or 6 times I’ve gotten the opportunity to talk to you, I know this means a ton. Enjoy every second, can’t wait to hear that speech you’ve been saving for 15 years.

3. Learning to Fly

The Pirates have a bunch of young players. That’s obvious, but not all youngsters are created equal, some I expect to take a big jump, others I think steady improvement is about the best we can hope for and others I almost have myself ready to accept regression. This thought is going to focus on the guys I expect to take a big jump.

Kyle Nicolas – I expect Kyle to take another jump, yeah, that means I think he took one last year too of course. This kid’s arm is big and his stuff is filthy. Kyle is working on shape with his pitches this offseason, in an effort to better control where they finish. AKA command. If he manages to just harness his stuff a bit, he goes from a guy with skills to a guy you lean on.

Henry Davis – I’d like to say I’m surprised to see how many people have already decided Henry is a bust, but sadly, I’m not. To explain why it’s unfair to see him that way, is to list off what come across as a book of excuses, and good players overcome those. That doesn’t mean they aren’t real. Between injury, position changes, poor coaching and his own propensity to want it so bad he tries himself into trouble, it’s not looked good, but this offseason, he’s focusing back on what got him drafted, his bat. I’ll say it right now. Henry Davis will be an MLB player for sure as this year plays out.

Paul Skenes – I know, it’s a lot to expect, but believe it or not I don’t think we’ve seen the best Paul has to offer. He’s working on another new pitch or two, and this season he will have almost all the performance chains taken off of him too. That’s the biggest reason to expect him to take a jump, he’ll do more than he did in 2024 so long as he’s healthy.

I could add more, but these 3 alone would have an impact. Shoot me some names you think are poised to take a step forward.

4. Signs of Life

There are still a ton of teams who haven’t signed anyone in free agency or made any deals to acquire a player. After all, the Winter Meetings are just kicking off in Dallas today. In a way, we’re a bit ahead of schedule primarily because Scott Boras took criticism last year by holding his clients back for top dollar and having it adversely effect a couple of them.

Again, the Pirates were never going to be in on Soto talk, but fans just want to see some signs of life here. They want to hear the Pirates are in on some guys who are openly on the block. They want to hear that their Buccos are in the fight on a free agent that they could realistically afford.

A lot of this is wait and see stuff, but it would be nice to hear from the front office some things that would make fans feel better. Simple things like, they’re willing to give a player multiple years, they’re exploring extensions of some of their vital internal pieces, they are willing to consider dealing players for immediate help, you know, some stuff that at least show that the hostage is alive before we decide to pay the ransom right?

Fans have expectations this offseason, and the Pirates just allow it to fester rather than illuminate their plans.

Let’s say something as simple as leaking that Bryan Reynolds is now expected to play some first base in 2025. Great, as a fan, I take from that I should probably stop pretending they’re going to go out and sign a big free agent first baseman. To even float that is to say, hey, you don’t think we’re getting Christian Walker right?

It also should tell you a corner outfielder is likely more viable a target, however they go about getting it.

It’s year 6 of Cherington’s regime, I’m kinda done expecting him to become good at PR or communication in general, but there are times when I truly think they could do better by accident than they currently do.

Just tell us you’re working, be involved, act like you have urgency to at least take a step. It won’t keep the natives from being restless, but it might at least give them something tangible to talk about and pine for.

I’m just going to say it, the inevitable Andrew McCutchen signing before Pirates Fest, probably isn’t going to cut it for the 3rd year running.

5. Hey You

I was thinking the other day about what Matt Hague the new Pirates hitting coach might produce. It’s hard to quantify, even after this year we won’t be able to say everything good was him and everything bad was because Andy Haines screwed them up too bad first. It’s never that clear, and never will be.

That said, if Andy Haines was half as responsible for the Pirates failures at the dish as fans screamed for a couple years, it stands to reason if Hague is as good as Haines was bad, we should expect big improvement right?

I say this because reality is, we’ll never give this guy as much credit as we gave the past coach shit. He has a chance to wind up just as hated, that’s easy, but the players get credit for good, much more than any coach does.

If Oneil Cruz takes a jump next year, it’ll be because he’s now fully healthy and just went through an entire season of re-finding himself. Will Hague get credit? Of course, but Cruz will rightly get most of the kudos. It would be about timing more than coaching. It’s the track he was on, all Hague has to do is not throw a penny on it to derail him, which bluntly Haines had become known for.

I could argue the same for Derek Shelton. Had he been fired this offseason, I’d expect the team to take a positive step forward, largely because I already saw the team as poised to do so. Now that he’s been retained, against the advice of seemingly every fan, the team improving won’t be credited to him as much as it’ll be openly suggested they could have done even more without him. Fair or not, that’s what 5 years of losing does to a guy.

A new coach would quite honestly be walking into a pretty damn good situation. The rotation is solid, the bullpen has pieces, the lineup has potential and the trajectory looks like it could easily point in the right direction.

This coach would probably be seen as Jesus resurrecting Lazarus, and I’m talking an 8 win improvement.

8 more wins for Shelton, they likely underachieved even if they make the playoffs.

8 more wins for a new coach, man they fixed everything!

LOL, ok, so I’m probably exaggerating a bit, but I honestly think once a fan base gets entrenched in their feelings or beliefs about a coach and or their effect on the players, they tend to not change, even if the fortunes of their team do.

Ben Cherington probably carries some of this too. Let’s say he barely does anything this offseason and the team does exactly what he claims to expect. Young players mature and improve, the pitching staff is dominant, suddenly they look like they have hitters just about everywhere. He’s not going to come out and say “told you so”, but you sure as hell aren’t going to do it for him either are you? I mean, I know you won’t, I watched the Bailey Falter discourse all last season.

In fact, for some of the ongoing discourse, I’d almost expect this would be worst case scenario for some fans. I mean if they don’t listen (AKA care) and pay for a bunch of players and they still improve and ultimately make the playoffs with Nick Yorke starting in Left Field and Bryan Reynolds at First and David Bednar has 40 saves after they should have cut that fatty, lets just say that’s a whole lot more admitting you were wrong than fans tend to put out there.

Anyway, none of this matters as much as the result, I just think when you decide for sure what constitutes right and what makes up wrong and you etch them in stone, it gets very difficult to scrub away the writing on said stone when it turns out to be dead wrong.