Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Cornered

1-6-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s time for another Five Pirates Thoughts here at Steel City Pirates, and as time rolls on, the Pirates biggest issues barely nudge. You could say the Pirates are cornered by their near constant need for corner help.

In fact, even when they manage to come up with an answer, its almost always not quite what the doctor ordered.

Things can change, I mean you can’t say they’ve ever amassed this kind of pitching from internal sources, and yet, here they are. Until they do though, it’s going to be a near constant conversation.

Let’s go!

1. Will We Ever Return to Batting Average Ruling the Roost?

You don’t have to be old to recognize what used to make a ball player a great hitter started with batting average, followed by everything else.

Yeah, of course, there have always been guys who hit a bunch of homeruns with a lower average and yes, they were plenty celebrated, but the best of the best, well, they hit for average too.

Today, you often see primarily younger people in near constant arguments with older fans trying to convince them that .240 is fine because they hit X amount of homeruns or they walk a lot and their OPS is in the right zone.

This stuff is cyclical.

Just like in the NFL, passing used to be almost exclusively streak routes and the throws primarily bombs followed by 15 of the next 20 plays being a 3-5 yard run. Then came the Run and Gun offenses, and the West Coast offenses and now in some cities anyway we’re back to run, run, bomb.

Baseball will adjust too.

Homeruns are valuable, always have been, always will be. The difference today is we’ve stopped seeing it as a skill for those built for it, and instead a skill anyone can build themselves into.

That’s not to say people believe any old schmo can hit 50 homeruns, but it it does mean a guy like Luis Arráez who routinely hits over .300 with homeruns in the single digits tends to be overlooked and undervalued.

I mean, he’s 28 years old, in his last year of arbitration and he’ll likely get somewhere from 12-14 million dollars and enter free agency in 2026 where he’ll not even be one of the top 10 offensive free agents.

That’s where we are, and as long as it’s tied this directly to getting paid, it’s where we’ll stay.

Launch angle theory has surely helped unlock some power from guys who would have struggled to achieve such things, but it’s also created a league where hitting .300 is a party trick that barely gets acknowledged and absolutely doesn’t get paid.

Now, if you’re a freak who hits 35 homeruns and manage to pull in at .280 or higher, chances are you’re one of the most coveted players in the sport. 10 homeruns with a .280 and well, you better play somewhere like second base or center field where fans will plug their nose and accept you while they hope someone who can hit more comes along.

The most likely way this changes is when and if an organization decides to disengage from the arms race for power and instead focus on making contact, getting on base, running, and moving guys over. Not only that, they have to win, and I mean the whole thing. Executives need reminded there are other ways to score, and old films of Rod Carew and George Brett aren’t going to get it done, they need to see it done today, and then, maybe, you’ll start to see it reclaimed as at least an important element.

For now, Launch Angle is king, despite what it does to the bat path, despite what it does to contact numbers, and so far, despite pitching adapting to throwing high fastballs few are capable of touching.

It could be argued the answer pitching came up with, is also causing a huge spike in arm injuries, but much like hitting, the things pitchers are trying to achieve also happen to be what gets them paid.

Again, cyclical, but I firmly believe one day some of us older folks will get a return to some of the things we grew up on.

Oh, and don’t count on the Pirates being that team that cracks the code, the truth is they simply aren’t cultivating either type all that successfully as of now and we’ve seen them with almost no power for 5 years now, if they were going to try, they had the excuse.

2. Isiah Kiner-Falefa isn’t Untouchable

The Pirates have made clear their intention to use IKF at short stop, both verbally and on the field and fans have taken his strangle hold on this position even further by using what they believe they know to suggest his paycheck a reason. The Pirates will pay him 6.28 million this year as Toronto retained 1.2 in the deal for him.

It’s also his last year of team control and almost no matter what he does this year, it’s very unlikely the Pirates will do much to retain him entering his age 31 season.

That part is key. See, in my mind the only way he is a Pirate player for the whole season is if the team is in the playoff race, and I mean in it, and he’s at least played a role in why. If they’re in it and someone else handled the lion’s share of playing time, I’m sure they’d like to move him, but it could be more difficult.

Either way, this is a one year thing, and frankly, if he winds up being in a bench role, good, that’s where he’s best suited to help honestly.

The only thing I can say here to really illustrate my point is, if someone out performs him, IKF isn’t making enough money, even for Pittsburgh, to continue playing him over whomever that mystery player would be.

We also shouldn’t be shunning one of the very few veterans this team has in the fold. You may not want him to start at short, but you should very much so want him around to show kids no matter where the ball is hit, you have a job. You should want him around to show how a professional approaches the day to day. There is value there, and he’ll be worth every penny this year.

3. How Does the NL Central Look?

As with the Pirates, nobody is done. In other words, there is no looking at what teams are right now that is going to paint the opening day picture, but it might shed some light on what these teams are up to, and I’ll even put them in the order I see them finishing if we were to get underway tomorrow.

The Chicago Cubs – Their biggest moves so far have been moving Cody Bellinger to the Yankees, and adding Kyle Tucker from Houston. It wasn’t a direct trade, but if you just swap Bellinger for Tucker, the team has clearly improved, for consistency sake alone. but they aren’t without issues. Their starting rotation is ok, with some younger options in AAA who could fortify it. Probably need more help in their bullpen too. The offense will largely tell their story and while their lineup looks like it will be the most impressive in the NL Central, it doesn’t have a lot of layers to it. Their bench will either be weak, or very young as currently constituted. Still, to me, on paper, they look like the most complete team in the division.

Cincinnati Reds – Young, but another year less so. If anyone in the division can rival the Pirates young hurlers the Reds would be that example and they too have more on the way. Their lineup has talent, again young, and also again with more coming, but they’re in a place where it’s time to see what they have and let it swim a bit. They’ve hired the absolute right guy to oversee it in Terry Francona, not only has he done this before, he has a penchant for getting more out of young talent than a host of his most celebrated contemporaries. A healthy Matt McLain should really help tie things together, but after missing an entire season, well, you’ve seen how that can go at times.

Pittsburgh Pirates – I’m writing this, simply because this is where I think they are right now. We cover them every day, so I’m not going to try to boil all that into a paragraph.

Milwaukee Brewers – Their biggest addition so far has been Nestor Cortes, but it cost them Devin Williams their all world closer. Coupled with the loss of free agent Willy Adames and Frankie Montas, the Brewers can’t be seen in the same light they were last year. They also should get Brandon Woodruff back, which makes their rotation solid at the top, and questionable beyond he and Freddy Peralta. If things go poorly for the Crew this year, you could see them deal one or both of those players, especially if some of their young pitching catches on this year. The lineup looks plenty good, at least for how they play the game, but it isn’t deep and they have real questions at third base. The Brewers are very good at doing more with less, so caution pronouncing them dead.

St. Louis Cardinals – For the first time in decades, the Cardinals seem to be looking to rebuild in a more complete way than they have in the past. The lineup is young, and where it isn’t, they’re looking to make it so as Nolan Arenado is likely headed out and if they could find any takers I’d bet Wilson Contreras would follow him quickly. The Rotation is Sonny Gray and a lot of hope. The bullpen still has weapons, but like many of the other vets, Ryan Helsley could very well find his way on the block. They have some very good prospects, but only one or two who are super close. With the Cardinals, I could still see them signing a bunch of mid tier free agents to one year deals and still shoot to finish around .500, but management seems to be tired of living in MLB’s middle.

4. Stagger if You Can

The Pirates may very well not have this luxury. In other words, this may not be a concept that Pittsburgh is in a position to take advantage of, but it’s still something that GM’s think about, or should at least in a market that arbitration alone could send your payroll to uncomfortable levels.

As I explain this, I think the reason it matters will make itself clear.

Last year the Pirates knocked out a full year of service time for a few players, Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales, Carmen Mlodzinski, Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez.

These were piled on guys who just surpassed 2 full years of service time. This included Colin Holderman, Bailey Falter, and Oneil Cruz. go to 3 years of service

Now, there are more, but these are guys who look like they have a shot to be here long enough to matter. I could go farther to really flesh out this pyramid, but instead, I’ll just leave it here to help illustrate why staggering prospects onto the roster is important.

That group I listed up there for a full year of service time, they all hit arbitration together, provided they all make it, in 2027. The next group, they hit it in 2026.

So by 2027, the Pirates will have at least this group all in arbitration. For added perspective, Johan Oviedo and Joey Bart are added to the arbitration group this year.

By 2027, Mitch Keller will start making 18 million per, Reynolds will make 15.25.

What I’m saying here is, by 2027, performance assumed, the Pirates could have 13-15 players making more than league minimum, some by quite a bit. When I tell you payroll will go up, it’s not a guess, it’s math.

I’ve been told, and Dejan Kovacevic has reported, the Pirates have budgeted 100 million for payroll this year. Doesn’t mean the GM will use it all, but it’s available.

I’m showing you right here some of what get’s considered when a budget is formulated, admittedly for a cheapskate organization like Pittsburgh.

The first thing to understand, guys who are good, but not great, they probably get dealt before Arb 3, and if the Pirates have any interest in keeping them longer, much like Hayes, Reynolds and Keller, the extension will come either right before arb or after year 1.

David Bednar will either sign an affordable extension for 3-4 years this offseason, or this will likely be his last year in black and gold, feel me? They won’t want to pay his Arb 3, unless he isn’t more valuable in which case they wouldn’t want to pay him the same to not be their closer.

All of this to explain, while it sounds great to get Bubba and Harrington and Ashcraft and Burrows up here along with crazy dreams like Termarr Johnson jumping two levels and helping here this year, you have to be thinking about what this does to the ability to retain some of what you do have now.

Say all 5 of those players come up and earn 1 year of service time. Well, you’ve made sure that they all come up in 2028 for arbitration. And I just listed off a whole bunch of guys who would be on Arb 2 or 3 by then right? So if you can avoid using one of these guys, or two, you can feather out when those cost rises come.

If you want to avoid salary dumps, you need judicious extensions, and more young talent pushing aside and making expendable, some guys who are getting costly.

ALL of this, is the answer for why guys like Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe, you know, guys with one or two years left, get dealt.

There’s a lot of assumption and projection involved here. None of it is written in stone. Look, I didn’t even mention Jack Suwinski, and he could very well put his name back in this hat. Davis or Endy or Bart could flop. Point is, it’s never as simple as don’t spend, won’t spend. Sometimes it’s will spend, but only as much as lawyers tell me I have to and even then I sure hope I don’t have to.

5. Polar Plunge

I never ask for money. Not for the writing anyway, but I’m doing the Polar Plunge this February 22nd to benefit The Special Olympics.

If you’ve ever wanted to support my writing and asked me to create a virtual tip jar, well, consider this one that benefits people who need it more than I do.

Thanks, and even if you can’t, or don’t want to donate, I’d love it if you’d share with others.

I also promise to not make this a regular thing, but it’s important to me.

https://give.specialolympicspa.org/fundraiser/5991053