1-10-25 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Ok, I took a couple months off and am able to start settling in for the Pirates off-season with a little over a month before pitchers and catchers report.
With a clear need to improve the offense which scored the 3rd lowest amount of runs in the National League last year, there is absolutely no reason for me to talk about a specific pitcher and why he is not actually good.
But, fresh off the heels of agreeing to just over $2M in arbitration, let’s dive into our presumptive #5 starter in the rotation.
Heading into this offseason, a surprising amount of people were posting about how our rotation is set and Bailey Falter should be in that rotation because he took such a big step forward in 2024 and yadda yadda yadda.
Except, it really isn’t and he really shouldn’t and he really didn’t.
Let me preface this by saying that I was overjoyed by the success Falter experienced early on in the season.
The guy that most of us didn’t want on the roster out of spring training, much less starting games for a team expecting to contend, met expectations when he allowed 5 runs in the first inning of the season before he record a single out – and then went on a TEAR, posting a 2.54 ERA over 10 starts in April and May, striking out 36 while walking just 13 over that 60.1 inning stretch – the 19th best mark among qualified starting pitchers over that stretch.
And, on the surface, that’s great! He ate innings, limited runs and put the team in position to win almost every time he took the ball in that stretch.
If you look a bit deeper, you realize that the BABIP of .192 with an average exit velocity of 90.3 MPH would not sustain that level of success, especially with the low strikeout rate.
Did I say low strikeout rate? It’s actually understating it. No one who pitched as many innings as Falter did in 2024 had a lower strikeout rate than he did.
And strikeouts aren’t everything if you can limit walks and keep the ball on the ground – except Falter does neither of those well.
For starters, his 36.2% ground ball rate is 14th lowest among starters with as many innings as he had in 2024 while his line drive rate (21.7%) ranks as the 15th highest.
And while his walk rate (7.6%) only ranked 30th among this group, that is still far too high for someone who doesn’t have above average stuff – or even average stuff, to be honest.
Yes, he wiggles out of trouble and will post some excellent starts. He had five games allowing one run or less and three hits or less while pitching at least 6 innings.
But, he also allowed 4+ runs in 9 different starts in 2024, not going beyond five frames in any of them.
Entering the season with Falter behind Mitch Keller, Jared Jones and reigning Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes – with a return of Johan Oviedo and prospects Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington on the horizon – the starting pitching isn’t necessarily a concern right now so don’t assume $2M means Falter’s spot is set.
Look, having a southpaw in the rotation is great – especially playing a PNC where it has a bit of an advantage given the cavernous left field, but with who they have in the rotation and who is waiting in the wings, the team should tread more carefully this spring if they want to contend during the season.
At least we’ll always have the memories of our lord and savior, Bailey Falter.
Steel City Pirates 
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