Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – International Shakeup

1-13-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Nothing reminds me faster just how low the expectations are for the Pittsburgh Pirates than seeing the reactions to another first round bounce by the Steelers and the current state of the Penguins.

Winning every year more than you lose to a Pirates fan sounds like some kind of baseball nirvana that we simply can’t fathom. Winning every year more than you lose but missing the playoffs or squeaking in to a Steelers or Penguins fan sounds a lot like hell.

Different leagues of course, with different situations, but on the surface if you simply asked the same fan who follows all 3 if they’d take being over .500 every year for the next decade for the Pirates, solid chance you get a thumbs up. Especially if you keep in mind in MLB that very well could be a playoff season in any given year.

In hockey or football though, there’s very little chance you hire a new GM and coach with the expectation they’ll stink for 4-5 years before they approach that middling goal of just not losing more than you win.

If Mike Tomlin or Mike Sullivan had even 2 or 3 years of that kind of performance, they’re gone. Of course, their bosses also wouldn’t have ripped away every player who had an ounce of value before you started either.

The point is, the Pirates have a path here to be seen in a much more positive light, by merely matching what the other Pittsburgh sports teams have done for decades.

It won’t satisfy fans for long, but it would give them a bit bigger piece of the local attention wrestling match for a minute.

Sure would be nice if for once they were smart enough to capitalize on it.

Let’s go!

1. Sasaki Landslide

Look, before I start this entry, let me begin by saying there is no world in which you wouldn’t prefer your team to be in on Roki Sasaki, or more accurately, have him be in on your team, but just having him insert himself into the International Signing period that opens this week is creating a flood of players that potentially will come available.

Reportedly, the Pirates have already pounced on one, namely Darell Morel who was lined up to sign with the Dodgers. The 6′ 5″ shortstop is likely to get 1.8 million from the Bucs out of their 6.9 million dollar pool of cash they’re allowed to spend on this market.

For those of you who don’t pay much attention to this market, many of these players have had relationships with scouts in the region since they were 14 or 15 years old and when the window opens for their eligibility, they usually have a verbal agreement with a team in place.

Teams holding out for Roki Sasaki who is very likely to rake in the bulk of any team’s pool of cash has teams seeking trades to acquire pool space, and breaking verbal commitments to prospects they planned to sign.

Trading for pool space, not cash. Remember, you’re acquiring the right to spend more money, not necessarily the money itself, and further, you can only acquire 250K in space at a time and can only increase their pool by 60% total, so it’s not easy to just bolt on a million with the snap of your fingers.

These kids won’t wait to find out how this shakes out. Sasaki just being dropped into a pool that was likely entirely committed to already obviously displaces some guys and bumps them around the league to different teams.

I’m not going to go into how the league comes to these figures, it’s not important for this discussion, but it is important to understand the setup.

• $7,555,500: Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, and Tampa Bay Rays
• $6.9 million: Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals, and Pittsburgh Pirates
• $6.26 million: Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, and Toronto Blue Jays
• $5.64 million: Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals
• $5.14 million: Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants

If the Dodgers are truly the front runner for Roki, you can see why they would likely have to drop some of their bigger handshake agreements and you can also see why there are some teams in better position to snap them up. This collateral damage will trickle even more. 1.8 million from the Pirates will likely cause them to have to back out of something they had planned too.

The Market opens on January 15th and runs all the way through December. The vast majority of this money will be spent by the end of the week though.

I know, I know, you don’t care about some 16 year old who won’t be here for 8 years. I get it, just remember, a whole lot of players you’d love to have came from this very acquisition field. You’re going to want good players 10 years from now, just as much as you want them now.

With this addition falling through the cracks left by Roki, the Pirates are projected to land 3 of the top 100 prospects, and we might not be done with the windfall.

2. Slow Down on Dealing Lefty Arms

In the Spencer Horwitz deal, the Pirates sent along with Luis Ortiz two young lefty pitchers, LHP Josh Hartle, and LHP Michael Kennedy.

You may not know who they are yet, and nobody needs to know what they’ll become. I have my opinion on Kennedy at least, but I’ll hold it back because it’s not as important as the overall point here.

Organizationally speaking, developing left handed starters has been almost as impossible as developing a first baseman.

This club under Ben Cherington has done well with pitching up to and including acquiring it from outside the organization.

Starters don’t always wind up starting obviously, but they haven’t really developed a solid lefty reliever either since say Tony Watson or Justin Wilson.

They have started to at least mass some guys who are proceeding through the organization, two of which as I mentioned have been dealt.

Bailey Falter and Caleb Ferguson represent the two top options from the left side in the majors, if you’d like, you can add in waiver claim Joey Wentz as well.

There is very little in AAA. Tyler Samaniego is a 26 year old organization player, and he could probably contribute in the pen this year although he isn’t currently on the 40-man and that’s really it.

Starting in AA Altoona the surging Hunter Barco, probably the cream of this crop is making good progress and should progress to AAA this year. Anthony Solometo stalled a bit last year, but is working this offseason to add some velocity and clean up his mechanics a bit. Funky delivery, and he too should reach AAA if he even has a reasonably successful season. Dominic Perachi was drafted in 2022, but he took a nice jump last year as well. Feels more like a bullpen guy to me, but I haven’t followed him nearly as closely as the other two. There’s really not much that impresses me bullpen wise at this level, maybe Jaden Woods, but he’d have to show me a bit more this year.

Once you get to the A and A+ levels, you’re looking at lottery tickets or guys who just got picked.

Josh Hartle, Michael Kennedy would have both slotted in at AA and below, but their pedigree rests a step below Hunter Barco.

The point of all this is, I’d like to see them commit to getting one of two of these kids to the bigs, and thinning an already thin herd is not healthy for the farm if you catch my drift.

If the Pirates move any more pitching prospects for help, I’m suggesting they should be right handed. They’ve got a lot more of those, so does everyone else, which of course is why they’ve dealt what they’ve dealt.

AA is a step away, to have 2 of them that close is promising for the immediate future here in this regard, it’s also not deep enough to continue to use it as currency. That ship sailed off to Cleveland already.

They can add more in the International Signing period, or they could be smart and trade off some expiring contracts this year like Isiah Kiner-Falefa at the deadline supposing he’s been replaced as a starter and recoup something similar to what they sent out already.

A team like this has to be self sufficient and that goes doubly for things that are expensive to acquire at the MLB level. Lefty pitching, power hitting, big velocity, blazing speed, you’re acquiring skills, more so than players when they’re young, but a healthy farm doesn’t run thin on things they won’t be able to patch when they look up one day and realize they don’t have any.

3. Which Prospects Could Debut in 2025?

I won’t hit all these, I promise you. I watch minor league baseball with great interest, but I don’t study it like Craig Toth used to on this site and still does on his Bucs in the Basement podcast, or Anthony Murphy from Bucs on Deck. My projections will be more based on the depth chart, Rule 5 protection status entering 2026 and of course my expected performance for each.

In other words, this ain’t some prospect Bible, but I bet it’s pretty close. I’ll rate their chances as L-Likely, P-Probable and S-Stretch

Abrahan Gutierrez – C – S Rating – Abrahan is in AA, and has been invited as an NRI. Defensively, he’s said to be really solid, and lord knows Cherington wanted him, they tried to trade for him twice before finally landing him from the Phillies back in 2021. He’s got a lot of traffic to jump past, and honestly, it might be best to keep him tied to Barco and Solometo for their development. He’s not burnable like our next entry.

Carter Bins – C – S Rating –Carter is in AAA, and depending on what the Pirates wind up doing with Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis and Jason Delay the 3 guys not named Joey Bart who are on the 40 man, he simply might barely play, in fact he could be bumped back to AA if they chose just to give the pitching there a better backstop. He’s a stretch because the only way I see this happening is if 2 or 3 of the projected MLB catchers were to get hurt, he’s the type of guy you’d add short term to the 40 man knowing you’ll cut him 2 weeks later when you get healthy. Like Metallica said, Sad but True.

Nick Cimillo – 1B – S Rating – Nick is a kid who really showed up last year and the addition of Spencer Horwitz probably means he can take his time in AA and ultimately AAA pressure free. Read up about him here. I put him here because he will be Rule 5 eligible in December and if a guy is promising the Pirates like to get them the 40-man spot along with a cup of coffee promotion when possible. If he looks like a guy who might get taken, they don’t have to call him up, but he should be on protection watch.

Sammy Siani – OF – P Rating – Sammy performed well in the AFL and he’s a talented fielder who was drafted in 2019 and has progressed slowly through the system. The Pirates aren’t exactly loaded with outfield talent, and I see Sammy as the exact type of guy who earns himself a shot, even if it’s just a use him or lose him type thing a la Bligh Madris or even Cal Mitchell.

Matt Gorski – OF – P Rating – A whole lot of what I wrote for Sammy up there, but Matt is the type of kid who can catch fire and again as thin as the Pirates are in the outfield, you could absolutely see them taking a look, even if it ultimately costs them his services as a prospect. Power for days with a ton of swing and miss, but if he gets on a heater, he’s be hard to leave in AAA, even if it’s short lived.

Braxton Ashcraft – P – L Rating – One way or another, it’s very hard to see Ashcraft lasting all year and not once being seen as in their top 13 arms. He could start, he could wind up in the pen, but they won’t burn an entire year with him on the 40-man unless he takes a giant step backward.

Bubba Chandler – P – L Rating – Bubba is different. This is not a guy who has to make it because of timing, or probably will because of weaknesses in the roster. Bubba is a guy who could flat out wind up being ready and already capable of taking a job from someone else. He’s likely even while not being on the 40-man, if only because he’s very likely to overmatch almost all his AAA competition and while strong, the Pirates don’t currently have the ’92 Braves rotation. I just don’t see anything short of injury that prevents Bubba from cracking MLB this year, maybe as early as Opening Day.

Thomas Harrington – P – P Rating – I think Thomas is going to be ready. He arguably has the best command in the system of his pitches, and his stuff remains competitive. In other words, this guy doesn’t pull back to command his stuff, he comes right at you with his best spin and can drop it on a dime. Thomas has a shot to make it hard to hold him back just like Bubba, but it’s going to take more attrition if only because his numbers aren’t going to pop off the page until you start compiling them. The only thing keeping him from the “L” rating, is he doesn’t need added to the 40 artificially, and if they can push it off a year, it might be smart.

Po-Yu Chen – P – L Rating – If he performs and makes the team believe they’ll need to protect him in the Rule 5 Draft, it would make sense to make use of him this year. I’m talking an August-September add to the 40-man and let the kid help you in the pen type role.

Sean Sullivan – P – S Rating – Sean is already beyond his R5 status. Anyone could have taken him this year and didn’t, so there’s no pressure there for the team, but he really had a nice 2023, and progressed in 2024 as well. Could easily help in the pen, he’s got a decent amount of innings under his belt, and being a control guy, he isn’t a big risk to give a shot to.

Eddy Yean – P – L Rating – The only remaining return from the Josh Bell trade, Eddy was a lottery ticket that really never popped off. The team sent him to the AFL this year and promoted him to AAA, at 23 years old, I expect him to get a shot to help this team in the bullpen and he’s been added to the NRI list for Spring Training. We’ll know one way or another after this year how bad or potentially ok the Josh Bell trade was.

Emmanuel Chapman – P – L Rating – Emmanuel is 26 years old, and was signed out of Cuba by your Buccos. he won’t be Rule 5 eligible until December of 2027 at the ripe old age of 28. All that said, he’s in AAA, and has the profile of one of those guys you never heard of who suddenly looks unhittable and came from nowhere. Open mind…

Elvis Alvarado – P – L Rating – Elvis was an intentional targeted free agent acquisition. He has not yet made his MLB debut, but he’s right there and on the 40-man already. I don’t know that he’ll make the team in Spring, but I’m almost positive he’ll make his debut in 2025.

Honorable mention but I just don’t see it, Malcom Nunez, Jase Bowen, Matt Fraizer, Tres Gonzalez, JC Flowers, Jack Brannigan, Termarr Johnson and Josah Sightler.

4. Really, How Could This Rotation Work?

The first thing to say here is, when is the last time you watched 5 guys shove from stem to stern?

Right. Like, I get being super concerned about who starts out of camp, or who gets a shot to start, or who isn’t better than who, because, that’s what fans do. We all do, I mean I have my “perfect” vision of the rotation when they come North too.

But you have to chill a bit, and realize it’s much more important to figure out your true mix of MLB capable starters.

If you can get to 10, and you actually think all 10 “could” be good, you probably have something. If you can only get to 6, ouch, you better get some more NRIs.

This team is blessed right now.

As I see it, this is the rotation if I were making it out right now.

Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows, now if you disagree on my 5th starter, who cares. I really mean that, pick someone I count as depth and switch them.

Beyond that you have Johan Oviedo who only lands here for his injury status, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and the Pirates would have you believe Caleb Ferguson.

That’s 10, 4 of which have next to no MLB experience, one who’s a reliever and one who’s returning from UCL.

I’ll be honest, I’d like another. And I mean beyond Carson Fulmer. This team would do well to see about getting another veteran. I wonder if Jose Quintana would want to take another ride with Marin. Someone that hopefully kids push aside and you can deal or he really becomes a go to vet and you ride it out. I’d like the veteran depth.

Don’t get me wrong, I think that Bubba could be ready. Really. I just like having someone to help carry the weight of being dad to this group. Skenes will assume it on his own if he hasn’t already begun, but he’s going to have enough pressure on him, let’s not have him have to shepherd in kids too.

5. The PNC Park Advantage

The ballpark is beautiful, quirky, and has beautiful views from almost any vantage point, but this is about the on the field stuff, not the fan experience.

The dimensions have been notoriously called pitcher friendly, especially for left handed pitching. And this team has simply never done what almost every Pirates fan assumed logically would come. Loading up on left handed starters who could take advantage of the insane depth of the notch in left center has simply never happened here. The Clemente Wall was to be a beacon for left handed power hitters, and they’ve had 4 players eclipse 30 homeruns at PNC, 3 of them lefties with Pedro Alvarez, Josh Bell and Brian Giles, and Jason Bay the lone righty.

The Pirates simply aren’t taking advantage of their dimensions, and it makes me wonder, would they be better off as they have superior pitching right now in theory for the rotation, moving the notch in and making it a bit more homerun friendly to left field?

This would make left field easier to patrol, which helps Bryan Reynolds. It makes power to the allies a thing again, so your guys like Nick Gonzales, Henry Davis, hell, Andrew McCutchen don’t have to PULL it or go the other way to pop one.

I get it, to some of you this is going to be like adding a 5th gospel to the good book, I’m just thinking outside the box a bit. If you really believe you’ve assembled pitching that gives you a better than average shot most nights, and you think the offense is loaded with guys who can sting the ball but ain’t hitting it 425 to the gap nearly as often as they’d clear 390, hey, Houston got rid of the in-play hill in center right?

I’m not talking about lowering the Clemente Wall from it’s famous 21 feet. I’m just saying, this ballpark is unique, but maybe it’s time to start thinking about making it a home field advantage based on how the roster has come together.

What do you think? Crazy?